Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5426. (Read 26609914 times)

I doubt that you can completely go by that theory of overhype to have confidence that the top is in, but you surely can do what you feel comfortable with.



I am trying to talk substantively with you, and surely some of those pegged tokens are bringing in extra risk, but I will concede that they are somewhat relevant to this thread because we are talking BTC/USD pair here.. and I understand that some exchanges might not even be offering USD as part of their trading pairs.. so some form of pegged coin might be the closest that you are able to reasonably get... so I am not trying to be overly harsh about your keeping the value in some kind of stable coin product because the main point that you made was that you were getting completely out of BTC.. so sure, I was probably a bit wordy in my response... what else is new?



Ok... I may have even invited you in terms of going into that, so I am not going to poo-poo you about those aspects of what you are doing regarding those USD pegged coins because I do believe that your main points do happen to be that you believe that BTC had already topped out, at least in the short term.. maybe even a year or more.. but surely even you are not necessarily going that far in terms of just wanting to watch the 200-week moving average in terms of a bottom that you expect to be reached at some point while you might still be profitable to get back into your BTC long, perhaps?

By the way, I did already attempt to express my current concerns about theories that suggest that we already topped out, in my response to Richy_T from about an hour ago.. so I do feel like I am starting to repeat myself, too.

Nope, wrong again. Most of my investment was done years ago, now stacking via mining, mostly ("buying" at a fraction of the market price, mind you). I find selling the rips and buying the dips not worthy of constant attention. I am investing for the long haul (for all of my extended family and their descendants). I get enough "cash flow" as you call it to not bother with sells (I will sell if a good lake will become available as i like water, lol). BTW, I find it somewhat creepy that you try to entice people to reveal their holdings (on multiple occasions with separate folks).


a character guess #nohomo

I doubt that too many guys here has a problem for cashing out a portion of your stash.. 10% or 20% or even more.. kind of in some kind of reason.. - even if you end up being wrong...  You surely are not wrong at the current moment, but how long are we going to stay below $50k?  Furthermore, cashing out everything seems a bit short-sighted and gambling.. even if you have around 5x profits at the cashed-out price.

Time will tell how it works out for you, and you know that even if you are somehow reading our current BTC charts as topped out, it is possible that we get up and down BTC price movements, that do not come back down to $50k.. time will tell about that, too.  

You know about the various current price prediction models, right?  You could buy back 20% to 50% of your stash at current prices, and still have some profits on that but also some ability to profit from either price direction, otherwise you are ONLY betting on down.. which does not really seem to be a great place to be.. but peeps gonna do what peeps gonna do..... especially if you are highly confident in where you are at and what you are doing based on current BTC price dynamics.

By the way, what do believe that the guys who had bought into BTC at $50k should do? keep buying while the BTC price is below $50k to bring down their average buy price?  or just HODL and wait to buy more BTC in the event that BTC prices get close to the 200-week moving average?  You recognize that the 200-week moving average is moving up fairly quickly, and it may well get up to moving up $1,000 per week in the near future.  It was at about $5k-ish during the March 2020 event and so the BTC price did stay below it for about a week or perhaps a bit longer at that time.  In any event, it is not out of the question that the 200-week moving average could move up to $50k in a year or two.  Guys who bought at $50k should not sell their BTC at a loss, right?

Surely your earlier mentioning of "Uniswap's USDC/DAI" does not seem to be either on-topic here nor a better place to rest your value.. including resting your value in the dollar (and sure that USDC/DAI is likely pegged to the dollar and maybe you are earning interest on it from whereever you are storing it?  in dollar equivalents. if you don't lose it from the third party, right?).. but or whatever currency you cashed out your $50k BTC for.

You think so?

We can look at events that have already happened, and even if we cannot make sense out of them exactly regarding either why or what might have caused, but the mere passing of difficult to decipher recent happenings should not suggest that we throw all reason out the window.

Seems to me that reasonable models can still account for the possibilities of outlier happenings, but we should not be starting with the outlier happenings as our base and ignoring more likely scenarios, should we?

For example, I will concede that some of the strange events around March 2020 caused Armageddon scenarios to become way more probable.. so instead of 1% or 2% odds, they became 10% or more.. maybe even up to 20%.. perhaps? but still I am not starting with Armageddon for my future planning of what I believe is going to happen, even though I am going to give a higher percentage to it playing out... but if I am prudent, I should still be attempting to plan around more likely scenarios.. and have higher levels of preparation for Armageddon.. rather than putting more than 10% of my preparations into it.. and sure 20% worse case scenario.

By the way, maybe the scenario that you outlined has a 5% chance, so even though I said that I am guaranteeing your scenario NOT to happen, there still remains something like a 5% chance that I could lose... yes.. our numbers might differ and if you value the scenario at greater than 50% (which I would almost wager that you do not), you may well be prepared to take the bet... which you won't (not that we specified terms).


Because you are selectively remembering whatever dumb shit that you said.

 


Through our many interactions over the years, i have also discovered that you mostly are not putting your book on such dumb nonsense that you spout out on a regular basis - except it does seem to me that you frequently underinvest in bitcoin and then you whine when the BTC price goes up more than you anticipated that it would. 

Hopefully you were able to pick up some coin on this latest dip and you are not failing and refusing to pee pare ur lil selfie enough for UPpity regarding where we are at currently because you are so involved in hopium for a dippening that might not happen.


sure.. I like burlesque.. but not in the way that you seem to be framing questions of BTC price dynamics, such as where we are at, where we might be going and what peeps should do to plan and prepare themselves in such context.  That is certainly not burlesque.. except maybe pointing out some of your wannabe correct nonsense from time to time.

Wow, buddy... This one has a real chance of launching you into being the next Mindrust.

Explanation

You always seem to fight my opinion (directly or indirectly) without providing anything even remotely close to a prediction, but I turn out to be more right than wrong and you more wrong than right, like during much berated "stall" between Feb and May.
Why is that?

It is because you are all entertainment, and I like facts/science and interesting thinkers.
Are you into burlesque or something like that?

You act as if the correction and rebound makes sense 

But what about the resistance at $42k and $43k?  Why u no mention that part?

 


I can almost guarantee that is NOT going to happen.

You think that bitcoin goes from correcting more than half of its value.. then wicking down $20k in a couple of days.. bouncing back up $10k in more or less one day and then just getting stuck at that price point?

Your proposal hardly makes no senses.. except maybe in a fantasy factual landscape.. and probably you would admit that it hardly makes no senses if you thought about what you are actually proposing.


It is possible that we could be at the beginning of a bear market that lasts a couple of years - but surely would be a bit of a challenge to our currently valid BTC price prediction models in a variety of ways in terms of both 1) having a top and then a correction coming around 6 months earlier than expected playout time, and 2) having a peak that surely did a 5-6x increase in about 6-7 months and then a largely flat peakening that was pretty damned flat for the final three months of the peakening.

I am surely NOT even suggesting that both of those dynamics could not end up playing out in bitcoin for this cycle, but it is almost like wishful rather than likely in terms of what we have historically seen in this asset class - and seems to want to wish premature maturity on bitcoin.. which just does not logically add up.

Plus so much ongoing froth in the associated space, and surely you are NOT going to get me agreeing that the tail is actually having any kind of leader affect on the dog - so even a scenario in which there seems to be so much imbalance that needs to be purged, a combination of dumb money and smart money seems quite unlikely to fail to recognize distinguishing attributes of bitcoin, even if so much of the space ends up getting filled up with misinformation and disinformation in regards to bitcoin.. there are a lot of smart people out there in regards to bitcoin, and not all of them are going to be drug into the dumb.

take the info with a grain of salt (I just post the link), but I never trusted that company enough to give them my btc.
I also never trust anyone with the name Zack, especially if he wants to give me an IOU but that's just me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/nheh5z/warning_blockfi_having_lost_millions_of_dollars/

EDIT: others on the same thread claim that everything is peachy. Maybe, it is just FUD (by competitors), but I still do not trust those services. At some point they might go insolvent, imho. It could take a a while, though.

Bitcoin is making a new pathway towards 50K again after the Biggest selloff of this year, near around 20% price gain since Yesterday..
What about shitcoin hodler!!

Explanation

 It'll become obvious once he sees you partying hard on June 6th.

As long as we are not back in something like that never-ending bear market we had before where any long, slow upward gains at all were always answered with a quick tumble but the general outlook was a perpetual slump.

Could be though.

Today's scheduled FUD attack...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/elon-musk-just-highlighted-the-biggest-problem-with-bitcoin/ar-AAKbSZ4?ocid=msedgntp

Stable $40k through the summer would be alright with me and then a giant WICKED green candle taking us to the moon ($100k) and above in mid-late September.

the evening wall report

Bitcoin continues to show signs of recovery from the dip and seems well on its way to establishing a support zone around $40kish

#dyor

1h


4h


D

#stronghands

 Meh.  We already had one in JJG.

Hopefully, at some point, you can just cross ChartB into more of a quasi-permanent fixture rather than what you mentioned as 72 hours, and I am not sure what the purpose of keeping the topic alive about want or not want or whatever, because it does seem that the overwhelming majority of regular WO participants either want chart buddy or they are not against chart buddy.. and the one member who is voicing so much opposition to chart buddy is a bit of a drama queen himself.. so hardly reflective of normal kinds of consensus matters.. and sure you, Richy, might be able to relate to such an outlier view and also you are probably having some internal desires NOT to cooperate too.. so anyone says a mean thing and .. whatever.. I said enough.. I am repeating myself anywhooo, no?

By the way, getting back to price discussion a bit.. sure, I understand that the price could go either way..,. but to me, it seems that we are largely in rebounding mode, currently.  I personally would like to suggest that if we do get more DOWNity from here, then likely some of the motivation for that would be to really beat up on some of the shitcoins. they deserve to be beat up quite a bit, especially after the amount of pumpening pure crap had been seeing in the past couple of weeks.

For sure, justice is not always served, so it really seems quite difficult to say how to get some balance back in the BTC price - no matter which way it goes with seeming a certain amount of the scale seeming to weigh on the side of a "weee- bit" more rebounding from here.. and we know that bitcoin no does not like "wee-bitting anything.., but still does not mean that we will not necessarily witness some more violence.. which might be in the air  - of course I am referring to price movement stuffs.. not other kinds violence - since even bitcoiners might be watching more TV than what is good for their lil selfies..