Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5543. (Read 26607875 times)

... this blatant market manipulation via derivatives is how they have been keeping a lid on gold (and silver) price for the last 30 years. Manage price, manage price expectations, keep the plebes in rotting fiat.

... quite likely this is real reason they have gone after Bitmex, as it is an options shop they can't control

You're forgetting criminals. Are you one by any chance?

Yep that's one good line to tell over inquisitive colleagues and acquaintances.

Jesus Christ I'm sick of hearing this!!!

Its a Pyramid Scheme don't you people know the difference?

Bitcorn is a ponzi.  Only losers are getting in on these tulips.

Very true the retard politicians should be targeting the actual fault in the system that allows this and its the laughable security provided to the average user from garbage OS's that prioritize infringing on privacy rather than security of data thereby allowing an attack vector baked in on every OS.

Of course this will never happen as they live off the Tit of corporations.

The correct answer is we are all no-coiners.

Any other answer could be detrimental to you, your friends' and family's well being.

I certainly agree with this from a idealistic standpoint... But I have found even just getting a lightbulb to go on when just describing what makes bitcoin different than say, Venmo can be hard.  So helping Joe Sixpack custody his own keys safely is tricky.

@XRPMadness
The effect of options on BTC (1d chart). Each circle is the expiration date, last Friday of the month. Line is the trend until those dates. Quite clear.

https://twitter.com/xrpmadness/status/1387836594602790912?s=21

You are quite amazing, if you do say so yourself.   


Are you filming me or my bot?

You fuck!!!!


I tried to create a system that hardly has any presumptions about short term btc price movements and ONLY presumes (or hopes for) long term UPpity.


Why, thank you lambie.. that is amongst the nicest things that you have ever said to me.


You really think that you know my situation better than me?  Pretty damned presumptuous, no?


That's true.  There is a risk in engaging with exchanges, including having coins exposed to sim porting vulnerabilities.  I doubt that "we all" know about those various risks or how they might be executed. and sure the more that any of us plays around with a variety of systems the more security vulnerable we could become or even the more vulnerable we could become to our own potential sloppiness - even if we might be striving to build skills and knowledge.



I don't really want to admit to anything that is framed in such negative ways, and surely the gambling part has been something that I have been striving to help people to better understand their own strategies in such a way that minimizes gambling aspects.

Accordingly, we might consider investing in something and gambling to be on a kind of spectrum, and my approach to bitcoin has been to attempt to frame it and to attempt to employ a variety of investment, rather than gambling, strategies.

You might not understand the difference between gambling and investing, right you dumb twat?  Think about it, lambie bambie... for years, there have been folks who have come into various BTC threads and asserted that there is no way that peeps can "invest" in bitcoin because all that they are doing is "gambling," and it seems to me that they have largely been proven wrong, the presumptuous and non-thinkening fucks.  You do not want to include your stupid-lil-selfie with them, do you lambie bambie? 

Seems to me that if you strive to categorize anything that is NOT buying and HODLing as gambling than you are likely missing a lot of nuance, not only in what I am doing in terms of trading, but other aspects of overall investment portfolio management that I attempt to advocate in terms of managing allocations.. and setting personal goals.. which first of all puts a lot of emphasis for anyone who wants to attempt to move their lil selfies more in the direction of "investing" rather than "gambling" would be to figure out their own personal financial and psychological circumstances including their cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan and to tweak their allocations and methods from time to time which might involve reallocations and trading.


Why would I listen to you?  Again, you know shit about my overall investments and even my personal situation and contemplations, even if you act like you do from gleaning some posts.. so fucking what?  I have not said enough about my personal situation or my priorities in order for your advices to be applicable to my particular situation, even if you might want to apply the same advices to everyone.. which seems another inappropriate and inadequate approach to investing, whether we are talking about BTC or any other kinds of investing in terms of peeps need to apply their own investment choices to their situation and to take responsibilities for such.., and sure sometimes there are seemingly obvious objective problems because it remains tough as fuck for peeps to even attempt to understand their own financial and psychological situations and there are also obstacles in attempting to apply systems to synchronize with such financial and psychological situations even presuming that they know those things pretty well.


Do I care, newbie?

 


 

This is too invasive a question.

It's okay. We'll go with that one.

That's right....

Hope springs eternal.

It's not over until it's over.  

 


Beyond my normal system, I did need to structure some extra sales to in order for a deal that I am currently working on, and I am thinking that I am going to end up selling between a certain quantity of my BTC stash extra (beyond my regularly systematized sales) of around 2-4% extra - depending on a variety of factors - including price movements.. so surely if the BTC were to move UPpity more quickly, then there would be some relieving and lessening of the pain and potential conflicts, but no matter what, I do attempt to try to maintain a bit of a system in which whatever I am doing is not going to cause me to become overly emotionally about whichever way the BTC price might move.  

In your case, expecting a move up to $200k in order to be satisfied could end in disappointment, even though I realize that your structuring your sales every $2,500 is likely relieving a lot of the pressures because of the fact that you do not need $200k to have been achieved in order to have been hedge the worser case scenarios of either the top considerably shortfalling $200k or the even worser scenario of the top (of $64,895) already being in.  Surely both of us agree that your current plan is likely much better than your larger lump summing plan from a few years ago that would have stared in a sub $50k arena.. but you never know, right?, you could end up kicking yourself, if the top ends up already having been in at $64,895.. and then you say that you could have blah blah blah..  but the asymmetric upside bet on bitcoin, still does seem to very much be the right play... even if some weird-ass scenario of DOWNity does end up playing out, such as the retarded proudhon hopenings.


Who gives any ratt's asses, beside you?

I think the present number go down episode is just the usual intermission of fuckery related to options/futures expiring tomorrow. Apparently, the max pain point this time is around 54k, so that's where the temp bears are likely aiming to.

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-options-market-eyes-4-2b-expiry-on-friday

Yes GayJuanGee, I realize you are still upset for me exposing you as the daytrading troll you are.

I see you still spend almost all your free time typing walls about price predictions and your gambling hobby of day trading Bitcoin. Im sure you still try and pretend that you arent gambling with King Bitcoin bc you are "buying on the way down" and "selling on the way up", as you have some special skill at knowing what the King will do in the short term.

Your skill is typing large walls. Stick to that.

You really should just learn to hodl.

We all know about the times you lost coins to hacks and exit scams by keeping them spread all over various crap exchanges so you could day trade them.

Time to admit you are a compulsive gambler (and typer) and learn to hodl. Also you should have gotten out of your poorly performing investments and gone all in the King as I have been telling you for years. 

If you want to wager some Bitcoin on whether I can prove I still control my old banned account let me know. I like free coin. 

I like the idea generally, but I am not sure what the $100k gets you.. more cushion from the bottom (that you consider to be currently at $20k-ish and maybe you can move it up to $30k based on that?

Would there be an amount of cashing out at $100k?

Or is it that once $100k comes, then we can just be closer to higher goals of $150k to $300k?*

* my below response to Biodom's post shows my rambling thoughts on aspects of the topic, at least some of my concerns of upside potential causing decently downside corrections


Of course, Dan Held is an interesting and thoughtful commentator, and I did listen to that Podcast yesterday, and it would have been maybe 1/2 day or so after your post that I had noticed it on my podcast feed.

In that podcast, Held asserted that a supercycle definition to be something like a bullmarket that goes beyond expectations or the absence of a bearmarket, so there was a decent amount of looseness in his supercycle definition that was causing me to intellectually fight with his claims while I was listening to him because he said something like a bull run that goes above $300k would start to fit the supercycle theory, and maybe a failure to go above $100k would cause a negating of the supercycle theory.

Still pretty damned loose, overall, but I did go back and consider some of the numbers, and in weeks past, I had even been prognosticating any kind of overshooting of $500k to $1.5 million would be an overshooting of any kind of reasonable expectations for this cycle, but I refused to presume any kind of supercycle because I consider that  any kind of overshooting is inviting some kind of overcorrection, in response - so maybe I am largely fighting any kind of assumptions that supposed strong hand institutions and rich peeps are actually going to be able to meaningfully stifle overcorrections without ending up getting reckt in the process.

Part my problem comes with overly presuming even though I find no real problem to assert that historically bitcoin has been and is becoming less volatile and we can even presume a bit of ongoingly lessening in bitcoin's volatility with the increases in market, increases in bitcoin's liquidity which are largely just causing it much harder to move its prices without willingness to inject increasingly godly-large sums of capital.

By the way, if we consider the 2013 price rise to be a bit over 100x and then the 2017 price rise to have only been about 80x, then we might consider this upcoming 2021 price rise (as to be expected to come) to be perhaps less than 80x, and I am personally using $4k as our bounce off point which would cause $320k to be the same as 2017, so we should be presuming less than 80x, so I am not really going to rule out overshooting of the price into the $500k to $1.5million arena, but we should already appreciate that going up to or even passed $320k would already be a bit of an overshoot  and going to $500k to $1.5million would be around 125x and 375x respectively - which would not be completely out of bounds (since honey badger likely gives no shits about theoretical restrictions), but still seems to be quite a bit more than any of us should reasonably expect - and I would surmise that overshoots would end up justify outrageously strong and punishable corrections that the various new entrants (no matter how richie they are or how institutional they are) are not going to be able to stop - which to me just seems to be more of the old pattern rather than fitting into some kind of supercycle category - but we will see.. we will see.., and in that regard, the next 3 months to 15 months or so for the anticipated UPpity (presuming that something happens) to play out and the subsequent correction (that could last into 2023 or 2024**) will be interesting to watch.. and hopefully many of us HODLers can make it through such period (presuming volatility) with a reasonable sized and suitable to our own situation amount of our BTC stash intact.

** By the way, any of us likely realize that potential frothiness of BTC's price performance remains a product of both amount of price movement and time, so of course, the faster it goes up the less sustainable such ongoing UPpity price performance becomes... so without knowing either of them in advance, we are going to have troubles presuming the extent to which they might be sustainable, and even if you zoom out on a 5-year chart of BTC's current price location looks quite unsustainable, since we are already had been up about 16x from our bottom bouncing off point of about $4k, and still as I type we are a bit more than 13x above such $4k bouncing off prices....

daily candle to 100K. that would be EPIC

Would love an EPIC candle....

Proudhon IN DA PLACE 

More chance testing 100K than 20K now.