Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 562. (Read 26467399 times)
April 02, 2024, 07:01:14 PM
April 02, 2024, 06:43:56 PM
go up the stairs.... go down the elevator 
Open the door, get on the floor, everybody walk the dinosaur!
Oh? so you just came up with that rhyme?
The amalgamation is completely original. Also, my not was more creative than your not: It had the element of requiring you to quote me.
April 02, 2024, 06:01:57 PM
go up the stairs.... go down the elevator
Open the door, get on the floor, everybody walk the dinosaur!Oh? so you just came up with that rhyme?
April 02, 2024, 06:01:14 PM
April 02, 2024, 05:45:49 PM
April fools is over ChartBuddy. Now please show us the actual price.
April 02, 2024, 05:22:31 PM
go up the stairs.... go down the elevator
Open the door, get on the floor, everybody walk the dinosaur!
You are so original.
Thanks. I have always respected you for your honesty
April 02, 2024, 05:01:17 PM
April 02, 2024, 04:29:54 PM
Then just listened to the PlanB video
The Dude boosted once again
Do you know BNR's Cryptocast (in Dutch)? It's my favorite to listen on the radio (right now) or podcast.The Dude boosted once again
Exacerbating the "no link" issue.....
and combobulating the matter with a language barrier.
April 02, 2024, 04:14:27 PM
April 02, 2024, 04:01:15 PM
April 02, 2024, 03:01:36 PM
April 02, 2024, 02:53:31 PM
What bet?
the asymmetrical bet of bitcoin vs. the buck ofcOh? For sure we should not forget that one, and it has already been won and continues to be won, and has very good chances to continue to be won.. and that should be part of the explanation for anyone still coming newly into bitcoin or formulating their bitcoin position would at most lose 100% of what they had invested, yet they have great potential for ongoing and continued upside - even though it is not guaranteed. There is also no guarantees in regards to short-term volatility or that if guys do not figure out ways to balance their fiat life and their bitcoin life that they might not be able to profit from such ongoing asymmetric bet because perhaps they got too greedy or they were otherwise irresponsible with their own finances. I am not going to proclaim to know all the various ways that guys might not balance their situations badly, and there surely could be circumstances of bad luck that were beyond reasonable abilities to prepare.
Even several of the guys who have been in bitcoin for a long time may well be faced with decisions regarding the extent to which they have enough BTC or if they might have too much and how to balance those kinds of considerations - not a bad place to be for guys who already conclude that they have enough cornz or more than enough.. and perhaps some guys might feel that they never have enough, even when they may well already have enough.. and so none of us can really answer for another guy's assessment - even when such guy might provide us with what seems to be enough information to have some ideas of better courses of action going forward - even if we might somewhat frame our assessment in terms of our own thoughts about "what would I do if I were him?"
80 and 40? seems quite the range....
I did not completely come up with that $40k/$80k framework on my own. It seemed to have largely been a product of several back and forth conversations with dragonvslinux, and so I perceived that he was very close to agreeing to such a bet about which one first $40k or $80k, and surely of course, I was going with $80k and he would have had been going with $40k, and that was only around a week and a half ago, and that was when we were just barely recovering from our dip to nearly $60k, yet D_vs_L said that he did not want to enter into such a bet unless the BTC price were to drop below $60k. .which I am not sure if I would have had still wanted to enter in that same bet on the same terms if we were to need to drop below $60k first, and since the BTC price had not then (and so far has not) dropped below $60k, I cannot even be sure that he will still want to enter into such bet if the BTC price were to get below $60k or what further conditions he might require (such as closing a daily candle below $60k or some other seemingly moving of the goal posts (seemingly from my perspective), yet I was not completely opposed to potentially entering into the bet or perhaps some of alternative framework which was both my counter-proposal that I would bet that the BTC price would not go to less than 20% above the 200-WMA throughout 2024 and 2025 or another alternative that BTC's high spot price would be higher in 2025 than it whatever it reaches in 2024, and surely I think that any of those 3 possible were not greatly biased in my favor but they were seemingly counter to some of his own assertions and some assertions that some other members have been making regarding their anticipation of various dynamics of this particular cycle...... and furthermore, I also speculate that such terms that I was proposing were sufficiently reasonable and did not greatly favor me.. ..
while at the same time, I considered that anyone who earlier had been making such seemingly strong proclamations in regards to various current bitcoin dynamics and/or their views of future dynamics (and purportedly with sincerity) as he (dragonvslinux) had been making, then such persons should be more than willing to enter into any of those bet terms, including not necessarily needing the then BTC price to drop below $60k in order to enter into that one aspect of one of the bet proposals that he had suggested as potentially reasonable.. .. even though surely any of us is reasonable to make our own proclamations, but I still consider if there ends up being additional conditions (and a seemingly kind of waffling on the bet terms), then there ends up being some backing off of previous assertions... and don't get me wrong, I am not even necessarily suggesting that dragonvslinux was acting in bad faith, but I am likely asserting that he had made some statements that were likely stronger than what he was willing to stand behind, even in a kind of funzies bet.. and not that I even like getting into bet situations.. but I will do it, even if I might be bordering on 50/50 with the bet if I believe the terms of the bet to be sufficiently interesting and/or fun... and largely in lines with what I believe will happen, even if I might ONLY be barely 50/50 on such projected/anticipated happenings.
Sure some of the downsides of any of these bets could be that it could take a bit of time before we might see them clearly resolve in favor of one side or the other, depending on how such bet terms are framed.
perhaps the as you mentioned 55 to 80? seems moar realistic yes if there was to be betting i think i would feel more comfortable with that range......even still...betting on a drop to 55 right now seems risky compared to a potential rise to 80
I am not sure if that one ever became bettable - even though I have been gravitating towards hybridizing such range to both include the ideas of no man's land and also the idea of don't wake me up zone.. and surely no man's land largely should mean that there should not be a whole hell of a lot of stickiness in this $55k to $82k range and the inclination should be towards UPpity (even though surely it seems that we are getting quite a bit more stickiness in this range than I had been thinking to be so likely to be playing out.. and surely who knows exactly the explanation for such seemingly ongoing stickiness - including that it could well end up being that we got into this range a bit prematurely..
yet the evidence of "premature entrance into no man's land" also is not particularly strong given the total context of what seems to be happening with ongoing BTC price pressures and even including recent historical context of what happened to BTC in the past 2-3 years.. yet I am not even going to claim to know how to characterize these matters because sometimes the various theories are not even completely clear while we are in the midst of them.. even though surely any of us are still going to have our inclinations and even potentially be putting extra value in one direction or another in light of our own perceptions of what we believe the inclinations to be - even if it is so vague as "I don't know what the fuck is going on but that there is no reason to not believe that BTC's price direction is going to continue to be UPpity,:" and that might well be enough of a framework to keep accumulating and/or stay invested.
As far as my mixing of don't wake me up zone into no man's land, I am not sure why I am wanting to do that - it just seems that is how our current BTC price dynamics are seeming to want to play out.. at least for the time being.
all in all id have to give it a pass....even tho some betting around these here parts might liven things up some
be that as it may....think ill just hodl
be that as it may....think ill just hodl
I am not that excited about entering into bets either but to me, it seems that sometimes members (even seemingly serious ones who tend to back up what they are saying) start to assert claims that seem to border upon what seems to be outrageousness. .or at least contrary to what seems likely.. and kind of starting to get into fringe rather than something that anyone with knowledge of the space should reasonably be considering to have high chances of happening.. so then gosh, we get into what might be bettable territory... ..
Even with you, sometimes I have seen that sometimes you make claims that I don't agree with, yet you tend to make them in such an ambiguous way that it would not be easy to proclaim them as strong enough claims to be bettable, even if I might not completely agree with your assessment..
go up the stairs.... go down the elevator
Open the door, get on the floor, everybody walk the dinosaur!
You are so original.
NOT!!!!!!!!!!
God dammit 😫
It sucks to be as poor as 4 weeks ago 
Then just listened to the PlanB video
The Dude boosted once again
Link or it didn't happen.
Then just listened to the PlanB video
The Dude boosted once again
Do you know BNR's Cryptocast (in Dutch)? It's my favorite to listen on the radio (right now) or podcast.The Dude boosted once again
Look at Loyce...
Exacerbating the "no link" issue.....
and combobulating the matter with a language barrier. (Note: funny that Bawb's name comes up here too.. I am sure that he has some way of being blamable with this)
April 02, 2024, 02:01:16 PM
April 02, 2024, 01:59:58 PM
They’re saying the big gains are over now that Wall Street is involved. Clearly Blackrock is telling you it’s time to sell them all your precious coins and move on to something else with your life. We should probably believe them and all sell them our coins now. It’s over. Time to pack up and go home. Been a fun ride. Wait, this post might be a day late.
April 02, 2024, 01:01:25 PM
April 02, 2024, 12:38:24 PM
70k is the biggest resistance to be defeated...
Not been around long time I guess
Perhaps it is a hybrid of the previous ATH with psychological value... but it has been tested a few times recently and so far the price has suffered rejection in this region.
But... we will pass... just a matter of time
April 02, 2024, 12:37:31 PM
Let's imagine that Satoshi decided that the max supply would be 42 million BTC - how much do you think that would affect the price today? I found a good post where you can read the messages between Satoshi and Mike Hearn, and there we can see how good Satoshi was in predicting the future.
FYI Here is Satoshi's own explanation to Mike Hearn (via email) back in April 2009 about why the 21M coin cap.
Doesn't ask your question exactly, but I enjoyed the insight into what Satoshi was thinking at the time:
from Mike Hearn:
Satoshi response:
Later Mike asked Satoshi a follow-on question Dec 27, 2010:
Satoshi response and Mike's follow-on question:
Satoshi's final response on the topic on Jan 10, 2011:
Pure BTC genius
Doesn't ask your question exactly, but I enjoyed the insight into what Satoshi was thinking at the time:
from Mike Hearn:
Quote
How did you decide on the inflation schedule for v1? Where did 24 million coins come from? What denominations are these coins? You mention a way to combine and split value but I'm not clear on how this works. For instance are bitcoins always denominated by an integer or can you have fractional bitcoins?
Satoshi response:
Quote
My choice for the number of coins and distribution schedule was an educated guess. It was a difficult choice, because once the network is going it's locked in and we're stuck with it. I wanted to pick something that would make prices similar to existing currencies, but without knowing the future, that's very hard. I ended up picking something in the middle. If Bitcoin remains a small niche, it'll be worth less per unit than existing currencies. If you imagine it being used for some fraction of world commerce, then there's only going to be 21 million coins for the whole world, so it would be worth much more per unit. Values are 64-bit integers with 8 decimal places, so 1 coin is represented internally as 100000000. There's plenty of granularity if typical prices become small. For example, if 0.001 is worth 1 Euro, then it might be easier to change where the decimal point is displayed, so if you had 1 Bitcoin it's now displayed as 1000, and 0.001 is displayed as 1.
Later Mike asked Satoshi a follow-on question Dec 27, 2010:
Quote
Specifically, BitCoin has a variety of magic numbers and neither the code nor the paper explain where they came from. For example, the fact that inflation ceases when 21 million coins have been issued. This number must have been arrived at somehow, but I can't see how.
Satoshi response and Mike's follow-on question:
Quote
>> Educated guess, and the maths work out to round numbers. I wanted something that would be not too low if it was very popular and not too high if it wasn't.
It'd be interesting to see the working for this. In some sense the number of coins is arbitrary as the nanocoin representation means the issuance is so huge it's practically infinite.
It'd be interesting to see the working for this. In some sense the number of coins is arbitrary as the nanocoin representation means the issuance is so huge it's practically infinite.
Satoshi's final response on the topic on Jan 10, 2011:
Quote
It works out to an even 10 minutes per block:
21000000 / (50 BTC * 24hrs * 365days * 4years * 2) = 5.99 blocks/hour
I fudged it to 364.58333 days/year. The halving of 50 BTC to 25 BTC is after 210000 blocks or around 3.9954 years, which is approximate anyway based on the retargeting mechanism's best effort.
I thought about 100 BTC and 42 million, but 42 million seemed high.
I wanted typical amounts to be in a familiar range. If you're tossing around 100000 units, it doesn't feel scarce. The brain is better able to work with numbers from 0.01 to 1000.
If it gets really big, the decimal can move two places and cents become the new coins.
21000000 / (50 BTC * 24hrs * 365days * 4years * 2) = 5.99 blocks/hour
I fudged it to 364.58333 days/year. The halving of 50 BTC to 25 BTC is after 210000 blocks or around 3.9954 years, which is approximate anyway based on the retargeting mechanism's best effort.
I thought about 100 BTC and 42 million, but 42 million seemed high.
I wanted typical amounts to be in a familiar range. If you're tossing around 100000 units, it doesn't feel scarce. The brain is better able to work with numbers from 0.01 to 1000.
If it gets really big, the decimal can move two places and cents become the new coins.
Pure BTC genius
April 02, 2024, 12:13:15 PM
70k is the biggest resistance to be defeated...
Not been around long time I guess
April 02, 2024, 12:01:15 PM
April 02, 2024, 11:46:23 AM
70k is the biggest resistance to be defeated...
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