Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5634. (Read 26607462 times)

63,869$. NEW ATH

Everything has beauty, but not everyone sees it

that should have been about 50 btc, give or take aka $3mil today.

I'll provide my "story" as well, as I pulled a Bawb as well and "took a little off the top" today.

Joined this forum 11/26/2013 after buying my first coin a month prior in October.  Bought the "top" at $1,000 back then, then continued to buy all the way down haha to $190.  Then I stopped, thinking oh man, what did I get myself into.  But never did stop believing.

What a wonderful opportunity this has afforded me, as I just took early retirement at age 50 and bought a second small home in Oregon and will be caddying part time starting around the end of this summer at Bandon Dunes.

What a majestic use of this invention, it propelled me to be able to step back and get out of the rat race at least ten years earlier than I would have been able to do without it.

So glad a friend emailed me an article about it at work one day.  I remember sending him .15 of a coin as a thank you, at the time, this would have been a $100 gift.  I do think he still has this $9k+ gift today.

Love reading all the success stories and am definitely trying to keep my stash as robust as I can, and will continue to sell the dips and buy at the top going forward haha

I have memories of buying my first bitcoin in April 2011, and I just searched my email to see if I could fit the exact date.

27th of May

OK, close enough.

Wiring $500 to MtGox. Sketchy as frig.

I just don't have my original forums account here, someone nicked it.

TIL. Ceres blesses corn and plebs.

Right there with ya!    (April 18th, 2013) and in the middle of that KNC mess with Day 1's and KNC cloud mining that had all kinds of problems...    Cheers!

Here was my date for registry:
Date Registered:    May 24, 2013

but I was lurking for a few weeks before deciding to register.

My claim to fame is that I was reading the "HODL" post live .. well, just a few minutes after it was posted.   I witnessed the term "HODL" being born.   I will always have that.

Hm yeah, the winter caught more than the first half of 2015 as well tho. I remember this very well since 2015 is the year I threw away most of my coins at random stuff so that I wouldn't lose my Bitcoin holdings since there were rumors it was on the brink of death. Big mistake. Paid a (now) damn fortune on crap and all I really lost is a final chance to accumulate the hell out of BTC.

Anyway, we're talking about a timeframe of approximately 1 year and 9 months of bearish markets. If you get caught in that with only BTC laying around and no cash reserves or other sources of income, you're pretty f*cked. Those +120 years of reserves will suddenly turn into just a decade, if you're lucky and have no financial "surprises" along the way.

---

Anyway, it seems like inflation is taking a hit in the US at least: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/get-ready-higher-grocery-bills-rest-year-n1263897

My grocery bills have also increased over the past year. In fact, almost all prices had an increase of at least a few %. Guess what, this means Bitcoin might go nuts soon. Imagine halving bull cycles mixed up with some good inflation and scarcity. The helicopter graph from earlier today might need to switch from $5k to $5k instead of $1k soon.

Actually, it works pretty well.
When I need to spend btc, I buy to replace it, hence the word "replacement".
As of now, I do not foresee selling btc (reducing it), with caveats, of course.
Baby talk aside, don't be nosy..my preparedness is none of your biz wax.

Actually, I am totally NOT against projecting ahead in a wee bit of a gambling kind of way that is still reasonable, and the 208 week moving average is likely going to be around $20k in about 3-6 months, of course if the BTC price moves up higher in a short period of time the 208-week moving average is going to move up quickly too.

I find something a bit disturbing about your locking in a timeline such as 127.2 or 40 years in regard to the perpetual withdrawal seems to be a much better notion.  So, you likely already know the concept (this is for others - public thread, remember.), but you take the value of your BTC stash, and then you figure out your withdrawal rate of 4% in order to figure out a way to withdraw forever without dipping into principle.

So for example, if you believe that you can live off of $3,333 per month, then you acquire $1million in principle, which would be $1million * 4 % = $40k  / 12 = $3,333.

So if you anticipate the BTC bottom to be $20k, then 50 BTC would be enough to generate, $3,333 in monthly income.
 
When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I was thinking that $3,333 could be a reasonable starting point for a passive income salary, but now I am thinking at least double that.. and I know that some members (such as Biodom) have suggested around 6x that amount. 

Each of us are going to come to differing calculations, and currently, I do prefer the 208-week moving average (withdrawing up to 12% based on such 208-week moving average), which ends up not requiring as much BTC to generate the same income.  $333,333 x 12% = $40k.  So, only 30.3 BTC are required at $11k to add up to $333,333 in value.


Of course, we all know that we would not want to pull the fuck you lever until we are actually confident that we are actually ready.. so on our own terms.


Gosh.. hopefully it is not an all or nothing thing that requires (causes) you to be a slave until your eligible age.


Of course we know that bitcoin gives more options, but sounds like medical could still be a bit of an issue for you.

Well I just got a nice brand new 30 amp hardwired service run out to my little work shed. Conduit, direct run, Square D service panel, the works.

My little S9 miner is now happily chugging away. Before it pulled 13a and was dragging a 120 volt line run via a 10 gauge extension cord down to 105 volts. Now the voltage drop goes from 120 to 117.

*Wow*. I am a happy camper. No more ghetto class power in there for me.

Part of the reason that I asked AlcoHoDL about the medical issue is because he mentioned it as an issue.

I don't know if bitcoin fixes the medical costs issues, yet.  Of course, if you are able to increase your amount of bitcoin to be able to account for the costs, then that might help your situation, and surely it is complicated to have differing standards in different countries, and if you are traveling - across jurisdictions, there can be questions regarding coverage as well.


I am not really in disagreement with what you say Dabs, but there is a lot of valuing of wealth in dollars in this response, and sure of course, there can be ways to calculate the formula that cashes out some and keeps other parts in bitcoin, but even with bitcoin, its not like we just consider pie in the sky expectations about what it is going to do in the future.  We have reasonable models that can help us to consider how much to cash out and when and to continue to rely on such models without pricing BTC at the top, but instead attempting to price BTC at the bottom so that we know if we have enough based on the bottoms, not necessarily the top.  Sure, you price BTC at the top at moments where you might cash out portions at that top and then put those portions in other places, otherwise pricing BTC at the bottom and coming up with formulations based on the bottom seems way more practical and prudent from my point of view.

+1

+1 WOsMerit

Ain't nuttin' like the real thing (aka king daddy aka the corn aka... well if you're reading you know what I mean.)

My SOMA system says: it's gonna deflate in due time. King daddy isn't.

well its been like a whole week since ive bought a new toy. i mean YOLO right?

Jay, and to the others who commented on my above quoted post:

This was a quick calculation based on $63k/BTC, but take into consideration that I'm not going to live another 127.2 years. A more realistic number would be 40 years, based on some standard life expectancy estimate. Doing the math & science on that, we end up with a more conservative Bitcoin valuation of about $20k/BTC. This is pretty close to where your 208-week moving average indicator is soon going to be, so I'm not too far off there, am I? My calculation was only meant as a semi-joke, which was sparked by a meeting we had today at work, where I disagreed on a few things, and almost threw a "fuck you" on the table, thanks to King Daddy.

No, my calculation does not include medical. My government will provide it once I reach a certain age, but not earlier (if I'm unemployed), which is an important factor to consider.

No, I'm not planning to quit my job just yet, but the fact that I can do it gives me peace of mind and enables me to handle things better and to my advantage.

Dabs gave a good answer. Also, I appreciate Jimbo's comment on frugal living, which certainly adds years to my calculation.

hey!

all we need to do is survive till the life extensions drugs become available (to the rich 1st of course)  come on boosterspice!

I would suggest that one of the ONLY things that might be relevant about the actual fork is how each of us dealt with it.  Yes, we got airdropped coins, and I would not even fault anyone who hung onto their bcash (just in case), so I personally do not necessarily believe that you should have gotten 5% to 20% extra from selling your bcash - even though many of the bitcoin maximalist types (including yours truly to the extent it is fair to categorize me - and maybe I got in the 6% to 8% territory for my bcash.. not really sure, exactly).

So, then the question comes about how did you treat your bitcoin / bcash stash after August 2017 until present.

Did you just stop buying anything during that period?  or would you only buy one or the other?

So you know where I ended up going, so any purchases or extra cashflow that I got would get plugged into my bitcoin system, and yeah maybe I did end up increasing some of my bitcoin stash during 2017 until present through my buying behaviors that were ONLY around bitcoin, except for my selling of whatever bcash that I had that was mostly completed by early 2018 (either December 2017 for my coinbase issuance and probably January or soon thereafter for mostly just stragglers that I found in various random locations).

If you followed a strict equal treatment policy, then you would have attempted to keep them balanced so if you bought .1BTC then you may well buy .1 bcash, too.. unless you bought the same dollar amounts which would have caused you to buy more bcash.. and then if you were holding bcash by around November 15, 2018, then you would have been issued bcash SV - which I believe that I did not get any except maybe an account that had issued my bcash and bcash SV in 2019 or 2020...based on my August 2017 holdings of bitcoin on their platform (Circle is one example off the top of my head).

By the way, my mindset about bitcoin and my various strategies regarding how much to allocate into BTC kind of developed over time, so my initial allocation of x amount for 6 months between December 2013 and May 2014 ended up getting renewed with another 6 month authorization which ended up converting into kinds of thoughts about percentage of allocation into BTC by the end of the second 6 months... and then my 2015 continuing buying of BTC did not really cause me to consider that I should stop buying BTC, but did end up causing me to NOT be so attached to BTC in the event that I wanted to develop strategies to sell BTC if the price were to start to go up... so I never did really get away from my being overly allocated in Bitcoin, and even when the sim port hacker removed me from my bitcoin, I was probably still over-allocated in bitcoin in spite of having a pretty decent quantity of them removed from me. 



Fair enough about the frugal living angle.  It could be that I was reading too much into your whole situation, and each of us are going to draw the frugality lines in differing areas.  I am not sure because I can kind of relate to what you are saying, and I feel that I began to learn how to spend more and to splurge on myself in about 2010 when I bought my first new car (prior to that I always bought cars that were between around 4 to 8 years old), but once I bought the new car (a mid class luxury car), I felt god about that splurge.. but surely I traded the 2010 in for a 2011.. which was another splurge but I still have the 2011.. so maybe I am a bit of a curmudgeon that can relate to you. but I feel that I am not geographically tied down enough to buy another new car.. but there is something nice about driving a new car with a lot of bells and whistles.. but surely and items that depreciates a lot so I can relate to that part - even though after already having a lot of money, there should not be too much concerns about depreciations.

By the way some mid-class luxury cars will be in the $60k to $100k level and depreciate by half or more in 3 years.. and sure some regular class cars will only cost between $15k and $30k new.. so there is that angle too.. that the luxury car is depreciating as much (if not more) as it would have cost for the regular class car.

Sheds should hold or appreciate in value as compared with cars.. but maybe that does depend on location and if your property is already overbuilt or if you anticipate many years of usage out of such shed.

Why was it wet? did DHL drop it in a pool or something?
And how did it work once you got it going?

@ Searing

I'm 100% positive we have to thank Charles and his magic powers for this new ATH.