Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5822. (Read 26720849 times)

1 BTC = 1 Lamborghini Aventador, when?
Right person to guess should be awarded in future by theymos's son.

It seems that the bears took advantage of the weak volume and hammered the price 5%. Hopefully the damage will be repaired and 60K will be soon broken. By broken, I mean staying above 70K  

Anyway, I've been thinking recently for a tool to measure the profit/losses of the daily traders who follow the trend. It is well known that those kind of traders are 99.9% losers. I mean, for each pump, no matter how big, they make on average 1%-2% profit. While on the dumps they can't afford a 1-2% stop loss and so make on average (x/2+1)% loss, if the dump was x%. (I'll try to explain my logic below.) Thus, they theoretically are always losing in the longterm. I guess thay have the same level of math and science as proudhon and can't understand this.

If we count the last month(s) losses, we can give an estimate when they remain with 1%-10% of their initial portfolio. And that is the point when they have no power to resist the pump (like a coiled spring) and the price shoots up 20%-100%. So, whether several bigger dumps like 10%-20%-ish or multiple smaller 5%-10%-ish will lead to the same result. Since we've had several bigger dumps already, I believe that the battle for 60K will be much shorter that for 10K last year. My rough estimates show that in the next week we should reach that hot spot and break the resistance. The algo should be something like this (very rough, of course):

1. A trader buys with N amount of cash bitcoins.
2. If the prices falls x%, he cuts his stop loss on average at (x/2+1)%. The reason for this logic is that at least half of the daily trend traders bought at the top and resisted the urge to sell, when they finally capitulate at x%. And practically nobody puts a stop loss at -1% unlike the profit taking. The number of traders putting stop losses -1%-3% is also relatively small, judging by the volume of sells which increases exponentially starting -4%.
3. If the price raises x%, he sells with a 1.5% profit on average. We see clearly that in a trading without real investors, each 1-2% increase is being erased in a matter of seconds, because of this behaviour. In that case, the trader enters again later that day, or the next, believing he timed the uptrend (which in most cases occurs higher than his selling point, on average in a bull market, say +2%). And then he repeats steps 1-3.

This is an easy programming problem and the parameters can be adjusted with the help of some examples for longer battles at some resistance points. Of course, this behaviour will at some point inevitably incur the trader a loss, which will increase with time to the point of losing almost his entire initial investment. Then he either choses to enter with a new sum (believing that this time will be different and forgetting the famous saying - you can't expect a different result doing the same things over and over again), or quits trading. The only "successful" traders are those who manage to reach 2-3 successful 1-2% trades and quit. They argued and mocked the hodlers boasting with 5-10% profits around 6K-7K last year. And of course they've missed the 15x increase for the year. But the vast majority of traders are greedy, so 99.99% of them do not quit after that but continue until they lose (almost) everything.

And furthermore fucking around with trading alts into BTC and out of BTC to try to make more BTC than you would have had is not even a topic of this thread, assuming that some peeps are able to accomplish such. 


I am sure that some other interesting consumption goods and services (such as  Education, medical, automobiles, hire a plumber or carpenter,  utility costs (including internet and phone services),  electronics (phones, computers, other devices)  could be put into that list to really cause folks to wonder how the fuck is such "official inflation rate" actually calculated.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1378410323653193729

I think it is just better to buy and hold Bitcoin, or maybe DCA. It has been the most profitable investment until now and it will save you a lot of headaches. Just buying and holding Bitcoin for long enough will result in a great wealth.

I don't want to try to time the market with alts. If you are able to, good for you, but I think most people will profit enough with the much simpler strategy.

The important thing is that this is not a time to invest in the altcoins as many people are shilling their alts (Top 3 altcoins, Altcoins to perform well in April etc etc). Since we are at the top of altseason, its time to sell the alts and get into bitcoins, else you will be stuck in altcoins.

Here is a secret, In the bitcoin season, we should buy cheap alts and sell them in altseason while most people buy alts in altseason.
In altcoin season, we should focus to buy bitcoin to prepare for bitcoin season next.

This LBRY thing, isn't that a token and not a legit cryptocurrency?

I do feel that my comments largely stand on their own.., so no problema if you don't want to respond substantively (which seems a kind of pattern of yours - raise shit and then scurry off).  

Furthermore, in regards to your various pig allusions, I am feeling in similar kinds of ways toward you Biodom... funny that.

Possible, but don't believe that to be likely.

There's just SOO MUCH FUCKING MONEY that has poured into Bitcoin above $50k, that I would be surprised to see us drop below $55k. Hoping that bounce off ~$57k was the last shakeout.

Let's see what happens.

Maybe it is all related to the quantum darwinism idea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_Darwinism
https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-darwinism-an-idea-to-explain-objective-reality-passes-first-tests-20190722/

Something changes in the environment and a slightly different 'pointer state' is selected to replace the prior one, but the change is not universal, I guess.

He is talking about the mandela effect.

My memory swears that Laurence Talyor former New York Football great Died of an Od once he retired.

But if you check this timeline he is still alive.

Mandela Effect would be Mandela died in prison but in this time line he lived and became the prez of south africa.

The forest grump memory i have is “life is like a box of chocolates “

This seems to clear it up.
Definitely a different set of edits of the same scene.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdWPIbas9I0&ab_channel=JeremyHetrick

I never saw the cinema version of Forrest Gump so probably only ever saw the slow pan version of that scene. It seems to suit the dialogue better so I can understand why that was "fixed".

They DO fix some scenes in movies with editing between cinema and home releases from what I know. Also consider extended TV releases of the same movies. I'm sure some of these Mandela effects come from this as in the case of Forrest Gump.
I remember in the cinema release of Jurassic Park: The Lost World when that idiot that roles down the hill that gets munched up by tiny dinosaurs, you could clearly on the left hand side of the screen see jeans of a crew member who stopped the stuntman at the end of the roll. This was never shown in any home release version.

Back to the future had "clean" overdubs for TV "What happens to us in the future, do we become assholes / like jerks or something"
They also added "To be continued" later. As a kid I remember thinking "Did I remember that wrong or is the TV channel editing that out not to confuse people?"
They also added the Episode 4 thing in Star Wars later and whatever else has been altered with those movies (even recently! with "MaClunkey!")

As both versions are available to watch in Forrest Gump in that video (whichever the sources are from - some suggest a different take from behind the scenes footage) it obviously should be discounted as evidence of a Mandela effect.

I can remind @Elwar of which 'conspiracy' to check.
It is called Berenstain/Berenstein bear conspiracy. Check it out.
https://www.seventeen.com/celebrity/news/a32934/the-berenstein-berenstain-bears-conspiracy-theory/
There is also a lesser known Mandela Effect (I see that he edited that one in).
EDIT: here is a cornucopia of these effects:
https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/life/entertainment/g28438966/mandela-effect-examples/?slide=30
F-k me, but I tend to remember (false memory) that Sinbad's movie (Shazaam) which apparently does not exist. Those timelines!

Thanks Fuckerberg:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/apr/03/500-million-facebook-users-website-hackers


CryptosRUs speculating that news may have resulted in a little downturn in the BTC price due to exposing info useful to hackers.

I DO have a Fuckerberg Book account but thankfully never associated my phone number with it.

"Never try to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time, and it annoys the pig." R. Heinlein, which is a paraphrase of
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it." George Bernard Shaw
Sorry, all I hear in the piece above is "oink, oink".

 My daughter schooled me on that - he actually says, "My mama always said life was like a box of chocolates"  but with that really crappy attempt at a southern accent with a mouthful of chocolate to boot,  it's hard to hear it that way.  Without the benefit of watching it over and over, I wouldn't have been able to tell the difference.  I don't think this one qualifies as the imperfect memory of an event.

Oh?  Is that what the gobble-dee-gook is saying?


Thanks for letting me know what it appears that I am thinking from your perspective.  That's helpful, even though it is wrong.




 You are buying the loss of bitcoin dominance (since January 2017) story as to having some kind of material/significance meaning.

You must be one lost puppy, Biodom, no?


 Hm?  Probably says something about you.


 you don't say?


You mean like the breathing in and out life cycles?  That nonsense?  Or some other nonsense that you and your shitcoiner buddies want to spout out?


Exactly.. let's not take responsibility for our own dumb, and blame bitmex for whatever level of dumb that we might have employed in achieving the shrinking of our bitcoin HODLings by more than 95%.. that surely must be bitmex's fault.

Wha ?

https://youtu.be/CJh59vZ8ccc?t=32