Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5829. (Read 26716898 times)

I had wondered what might happen to my passphrase-protected ("13th Word") Trezor wallet were their servers ever to go down.  Turns out that Wasabi Wallet can back up Trezor wallets even when they use the "13th Word" (passphrase), which I did not know until kindly explained to me over there in the Wallets threads.

You have to jump through some hoops (install Trezor Suite which allows bech32 addresses (bc1q.....) so Wasabi & Trezor can exchange info), but it all works.  I set-up a dummy account, and it works.

Nice tool for backing up a Trezor if/when it comes to that.  Recommended!

Do you still even got “some” ?!

Sorry to hear that. Yeah I'm getting better at letting go of grudges, people just go and die for some reason and that's sad.

*hugs*

Sold some more at $58K, dunno if it was a good idea yet.

"... this time feels different."  

So, when do we leave these boring $57,xxx numbers?

Might not be good, Richy... On the one side such an alarm might cause panic or alternatively premature ejection from bed.

The ETF thing in general is good, but there are multiple problems that may appear and instead of blessing to become an obstacle (at least temporary) in terms of the price increase. First, there are two types of ETF - cash settled and physically settled. The first type won't have any affect on the price. But the second will have an impact, because the BTC's will be bought from the spot exchanges in USA. I don't think some respected company like Fidelity or CBOE will risk faking the purchases of BTC's. If they don't have the asset, they will have to use customers money to pay the new customers. This will make them a ponzi, and as we all know the law in USA is severe in such cases. The most famous case is Maydoff's, who faked profits from the activity of the firms and used the new cash to pay the interest. I believe the court gave him 150 years in prison effective sentence. So, although possible, it is highly unlikely this will happen. But, SEC are cautious and want to be 100% sure that the custody is well established and working. May be this was one of the main reasons for the denials in 2017. But now the things are different - Bakkt, Grayscale, Paypal, G&S, Fidelity, M&S, etc. are respected financial giants who managed to secure licenced in USA custody with insurance in case of theft. Therefore I think the probability of creating fake volume with non existent bitcoins is practically 0.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becomes fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

How about a bitcoin alarm that wakes you up by reading the price?

No he was manufactured in a lab from what have been going around.

"Be like a cat, my friend. Be strong like a #strongcat with #stronghands." I could have been possibly drunk too, can't remember.

You are nearly guilty of some similar thing that you are describing as problematic, BitcoinBunny, no?

Truth of the matter remains that bitcoin is a quite different kind of asset class that has never been witnessed previously in its current incarnation.   Sure there have been variants of bitcoin, and bitcoin was NOT built from scratch, so we cannot really lock it into any kind of model of something that may have previously happened exactly - even while there are some decent parallels such as the internet (just not the value/money part) - while at the same time, some of the models/charts./graphs have better explanatory and predictive power than others, so long as we do not try to read any particular one(s) as gospel, which seems to be a similar thing that you are saying. 

So, even though I am not really disagreeing with you on any of your points - especially regarding varying difficulties in predicting anything that is going to happen "in the future", I do believe that you ended up overstating your case to some degree in the poo pooing of the value of models and charts in these trying times.

Oh, and furthermore, some peeps get more worked up and emotional about charts and models than others, but it does not seem fair to generalize in saying that the varying levels of emotions (and even irrational exuberance from time to time) are necessarily either not warranted because they are speculating about the future rather than celebrating the past or that there might not be some value in going a little crazy in expressing both where we are and in anticipation of where we might be going.. including

CCCCIIIIIIIITTTTTTTEEEEEE   status

regarding our lil fiend.. aka king daddy, aka dee honey badger, aka bitcoin.

wwwwwwwwhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeee!!!!!

whenever i hear or read that i lost a close friend from the old times, which i haven't seen/heard of for a long time (over a decade), i look up the music we shared in our times of close friendship. It's like temporary revival in the form of memories, because you don't have a chance to experience their presence ever again.
I use the music to start the process of letting go.

I know that dying is a part of life, which allows us to be able to feel these kind of things.
I don't beg for condolence here, by the way.

Maybe some of you remember one of these persons, who you wanted to call or write for longer times, but didn't make it yet for whatever reason.

I don't claim to fully understand the implications of ETFs getting into Bitcoin.

At first thought it seems to be a positive thing (mass adoption, recognition, etc.). But, something makes me feel a little wary about such big players entering this space. All those massively powerful entities will have the power to greatly influence the market, and we must assume that their motives will not necessarily be pro-Bitcoin.

The ETF thing in general is good, but there are multiple problems that may appear and instead of blessing to become an obstacle (at least temporary) in terms of the price increase. First, there are two types of ETF - cash settled and physically settled. The first type won't have any affect on the price. But the second will have an impact, because the BTC's will be bought from the spot exchanges in USA. I don't think some respected company like Fidelity or CBOE will risk faking the purchases of BTC's. If they don't have the asset, they will have to use customers money to pay the new customers. This will make them a ponzi, and as we all know the law in USA is severe in such cases. The most famous case is Maydoff's, who faked profits from the activity of the firms and used the new cash to pay the interest. I believe the court gave him 150 years in prison effective sentence. So, although possible, it is highly unlikely this will happen. But, SEC are cautious and want to be 100% sure that the custody is well established and working. May be this was one of the main reasons for the denials in 2017. But now the things are different - Bakkt, Grayscale, Paypal, G&S, Fidelity, M&S, etc. are respected financial giants who managed to secure licenced in USA custody with insurance in case of theft. Therefore I think the probability of creating fake volume with non existent bitcoins is practically 0.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becames fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becomes fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.

The ETF thing in general is good, but there are multiple problems that may appear and instead of blessing to become an obstacle (at least temporary) in terms of the price increase. First, there are two types of ETF - cash settled and physically settled. The first type won't have any affect on the price. But the second will have an impact, because the BTC's will be bought from the spot exchanges in USA. I don't think some respected company like Fidelity or CBOE will risk faking the purchases of BTC's. If they don't have the asset, they will have to use customers money to pay the new customers. This will make them a ponzi, and as we all know the law in USA is severe in such cases. The most famous case is Maydoff's, who faked profits from the activity of the firms and used the new cash to pay the interest. I believe the court gave him 150 years in prison effective sentence. So, although possible, it is highly unlikely this will happen. But, SEC are cautious and want to be 100% sure that the custody is well established and working. May be this was one of the main reasons for the denials in 2017. But now the things are different - Bakkt, Grayscale, Paypal, G&S, Fidelity, M&S, etc. are respected financial giants who managed to secure licenced in USA custody with insurance in case of theft. Therefore I think the probability of creating fake volume with non existent bitcoins is practically 0.

However, there are other problems that may affect the price in a negative way. The first problem is how exactly the 650K BTC's held by Grayscale will be managed if the premium continues to be negative. Will they apply for an ETF and somehow transfer the BTC's in the ETF market? There is a chance that the things may go wrong for awhile and thus causing some panic in the spot market. The other big problem is that the high expectations may lead to another Dec. 2017 buble like increase that may end just as badly. People thought that the cash settled futures will have a positive impact on the price. Then the great dissapointment came. A similar thing happened when Bakkt started. So there may be some drawbacks after all. Hopefully they will not bring another 2-year bear winter. But once the ETF market becames fully operational, we can expect at least several trillions $ invested in BTC for a short time of 1-2 years perhaps. And the best scenario is everything to go smoothly with an extended multi year bull market. I think the odds for that are much greater because of the new big players, who don't seek a quick profit.