Here is a favorite calculator to play with: https://firecalc.com/
The default values there imply a 95% success rate starting with $750k and withdrawing $30k per year for 30 years.
The default values there imply a 95% success rate starting with $750k and withdrawing $30k per year for 30 years.
Thanks for providing that link.
Interestingly if you go to the "My Portfolio" tab and enter :"A portfolio with consistent growth of 200%" which is the historical BTC CAGR according to https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-compound-annual-growth-is-an-unheard-of-200-cagr, then anyone with a few BTC can retire right now ...
That would imply you already have $750k worth of BTC and withdrawing around $30k per year, and as long as the "consistent" growth is above 8% then you'll be okay.
Which kinda makes sense. If you don't have maybe at least 15 BTC (fudge margin error buffer added), and you can't live on $30k per year, don't retire just yet.
I always consider that it is way better to attempt to maintain a considerable cushion with any potentially volatile asset, and BTC fits in the category of potentially volatile asset, and of course, part of any justification to diversify into various assets (rather than keeping value in one asset) remains to have some kind of assurance that the value of the overall portfolio is going to maintain its value and hopefully appreciate at a value that is at minimum equal to the withdrawal rate (maybe even a need to account for inflation, too).
If in the end, faulty evaluations of the value of the various assets in the portfolio are made, then overwithdrawing becomes much more likely to happen, too, so in that regard, it is good to have some kind of system in place in which the withdrawing accounts for likely performance of the assets or the portfolio but does such withdrawing in a relatively conservative way that does not end up overwithdrawing merely based on present value or expected value that ends up not happing. Yes, I recognize that if you try to assess your asset performance at a minimum of 8% like in the example that you gave, Dabs, then having a withdrawal rate of 4% should be a decent cushion.. so maybe if the asset is performing decently well, then all of the withdraw for a year could be done at the time of the decent performance, rather than withdrawing every quarter, month or week but then perhaps having a shrinking amount that can be withdrawn because the asset(s) had gone down in value during those periodic withdrawals.
As I mentioned several times, my solution has been to engage in under valuation of assets such as bitcoin in order to determine the amount that I would authorize myself to withdraw, and of course then there is an attempt to account for bottoms and even extreme bottoms rather than seemingly less conservative methods that would either measure present value and/or expect some kind of ongoing increase in value based on present value, which many of us recognize NOT to be any kind of guarantee in bitcoinlandia...at least not if we look at BTC prices at anything less than a 4 year time line and I would even argue that historical appreciations on a 4 year time line does not guarantee the continuance of such ongoing BTC price appreciations in 4 year timelines.
