Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5985. (Read 26713499 times)

My model is zooming out to "all" on the price chart and using an eye that has grown accustomed to judging exponential curves. Hard to predict on the short scale, Bitcoin has been quite predictable in the long scale. Undoubtedly an S-curve will dominate eventually but we still seem to be solidly on a fairly boringly predictable exponential at this time. Large groups of people are predictable in a way that would make Harry Seldon smile.

I'd certainly appreciate another rally though, maybe with some real FOMO this time. It may or may not happen. I don't like assigning probabilities to something that is going to play out how it plays out but I would put my confidence in another rally in the immediate future at no better than 30-40%. I see no path to 1M at all that doesn't have a large label of "wishful thinking" applied to it.

Fair enough.

The longer that many of us have been in, we have been able to establish our stakes and also prepare ourselves for either price direction.. so the first year or so could be a bit tougher - and surely with any BTC price run we get late entrance who ONLY heard about BTC or started looking into it in recent times, may have only been a couple of months, if that... I hate to generalize too much, but surely, the kinds of folks that you mentioned, UnDerDoG81, do surely exist and surely they may have come into bitcoin in droves in the past couple of months.

Regarding being "happy" about $40k, I remain more of an accept it for whatever it is kind of a guy, and so surely, I already stacked up on BTC a long time ago, so I feel no need to really get excited about BTC corrections or to be happy that they happen (in terms of stacking for my own BTC portfolio - which is already seemingly excessive for poor wee lil ole me), even though the corrections (even ones that are the BIGGER end of the scale - such as 25% to 40% arena) are likely a kind of necessity that likely ends up causing a quite a bit more graduality on the UPpity direction movements for a while, which does seem to be better to allow some of the buy support to catch up to current BTC prices and also to catch up to those BTC prices that have so far been at the higher ends of this particular run - referring to BTC prices in the $50ks and beyond that seem quite likely to come - so yeah, getting into the $60k BTC prices and beyond does seem somewhat better to have allowed some of the buy support to catch up to those prices so that there could be some push that could give us some $10k UPpities that happen within a day or so.. if that is even feasible and reasonable in these here times?

I reserve the right to make digs at anything I want, well, maybe not Satoshi.
That said, you do your little "buy down, sell up" things and I will do mine "whatever" strategy.

As far as Saylor-I don't know what nasty covenants debt-giving people put in there, but I can assure you that something is there.
Do you think that someone gives a guy $1 bil at 0% coupon and not have some "protection"? Lol
That said, check out MSTR long term chart-it might be instructive. Sometimes things don't exactly repeat themselves, but they sure do rhyme.
Finally, if btc suddenly goes to 100K, 200K, 300K, it's all for the better, but we don't want MS suddenly selling the last batch of his btc at, say, 33K if debt holders raise a demand that he does so, providing that they can.
I would be shocked if they don't have some "protection", though. After all, debt holders are in the senior position in any company structure.

Is this daily NUPL?
It looks like relative unrealized profit-loss is still high:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/
However, it very well may be that we are in June 2017-like situation.

I am talking about deep pain stage for people who entered at high levels. They need to feel the pain and start to believe the bullrun is over. The whales love to let people feel this pain to shake them out. And I feel like the "blood on the streets" level for these people is pretty high right now. Indicator is still slightly at greed -> https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

For me, I am absolutely happy about $40k.

You are not even unreasonable here, Richy_T, even though you seem to be assigning quite a bit of higher probability values to down scenarios and lower probability to upside potentialities than me, including your outright negativing million dollar scenarios in this cycle as if it is not even possible.  

My bank account gives few shits about whether $58,354 is already the top in this cycle (partly because I am already trying to figure out how to increase my spending in ways much beyond what I have already been increasing.. and probably, I just need to try to be more creative in just splurging and not looking at prices, etc) but surely, having higher BTC prices might cause additional ponderings about some BIGGER things to do with the value of such BTC holdings and surely on a macro-level with higher BTC values, BTC does end up getting painted with even greater credibility - which surely validates some of us longer term bulls in order desires to proclaim our told-you-sos to the so many bitcoin naysayers, the fence sitters, the no coiners and the shitcoin pumpeners.

Even though I personally give you some credence in terms of your seemingly alternative scenarios because it is sure possible that our currently valid price prediction models** could be wrong of need to be shifted a bit DOWNity - but so far our current BTC price prediction models have been much more accurate and on-point than the various more bearish and conservative scenarios, including scenarios and possibilities like the ones you are outlining, Richy_T.. so ongoingly, I am going to put much more credence in those scenarios which put the top of this cycle in the $150k to $400k arena.. even if they have also accounted for even more bullish and outrageousness such as $1million scenarios that I mentioned, but put less likelihood on such $1million this cycle, just like I did.. so in that regard, even if any of us might consider $1million to be pie in the sky and outrageously high, it remains a good thing to prepare both psychologically and financially for such outrageousness, just like it ended up being good to prepare for $20k in late 2017 even though many of us (including your truly) considered more likely BTC price tops for the 2017 timeframe to have been in the $3k to $5k range.. but I was pee pared for much higher both psychologically and financially, even though I had assigned pretty damned low likelihoods to such scenarios - probably in the sub 5% arena, if not lower.  

**Again the three current BTC price prediction models that I am referring to are 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

As we were discussing for the necessity of a correction, I am noticing that Net Realised PnL of the market has just turned negative:



https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Market%20Indicators&m=indicators.NetRealizedProfitLoss

What is this?

So we are basically looking at the difference between

And of course:

This means market is coooling off, a lot of traders are now in the red, and the trades making money are now less than those losing money. This balanced situation in the past was a prerequisite for the subsequent ramp up in the market.
I think this time won’t be different.

Thank you!
I bought some of the dip too....
Will go up soonish(tm)

Bitcoin is on my head so much that I saw this news twice on my timeline today and every time I read it “Bitcoin jailed in Singapore.....”

Where the weak hands at yo?



I just BTFD cos I’m a strong handed MF!

I am having difficulties considering $43k-ish as "deep pain stage" - especially upon zooming out - but hey, if we get into the lower $20ks or even sub $20k, that might start to feel a bit painful.

Regarding necessity to have "deep pain stage" before moving up or continuing UP, I doubt that such is necessary - even though I do understand the concept of shaking some weak hands, and surely some of the weak hands are likely being shaken with some of our current price dynamics, including where we are at, currently.

Good morn Bitcoinland.
Four three four three four dollars
(Bitcoinaverage).

Bouncing up and down,
Coiling consolidation,
Primed for next leg up.


Happy B-day Arrie.

Remember how much
Life seemed to improve after
You reached your 40s?

I think that you'll find
60 is even better
Onward and upward.

I stopped grumbling about my bi-monthly grocery bill because I felt rich.

Now I'm back to grumbling again.

Where s = log (usd per btc / $0.02)
and t = 0.093928 * sqrt (days elapsed since 2010-09-08)
The Twopenny Indicator = (s-t) * sqrt(s+t)
The blue trace is the daily closing bitcoin price run through the twopenny equation (named for the denominator of s).
The red traces are constant-dollar lines at $10.33, $463, $7642 and $81550.  These isovalue lines, which intersect the baseline at halvings, are cyclical price drivers.

I'd go to a faster plan but Comcast has the same data limit no matter how fast so all it would mean is we'd get there quicker and have to pay them an overage charge.

I recommend Costco's brand. Decently priced, decent quality and the rolls aren't excessively narrow like the ones my daughter brought home last week.

Order @ $43.5k just got filled.

Surely, peeps here recognize that I remain an incrementalist, so I do not get so excited about trying to time injections of value from prior sales.  The injections are pre-decided (sometimes tweaked a wee bit based on changes in my sentiment), and created in such a way that I give almost no shits about whether they are executed or not except of course I do prefer them to get executed when the BTC price starts getting within a few fractions of a percent of triggering.

I will agree that there can be some times in which it will begin to become perceivable and seemingly obvious that the BTC price is going to go shooting past my orders and not stop.. but even those kinds of perceptions of obviousness does not tend to cause me to make any kinds of significant changes to my system because overall the system is working great to stack both dollars and BTC and to cause them to be available for whatever I would wish, upon discretion. 

Now, of course, if we look at a price movement from $10k-ish up to $58k-ish, we surely could appreciate that a whole hell of a lot of excess dollars were generated (or made available) during that period of time, so there could end up being some discretion regarding whether that excessive quantity needs to be re-thunk or not.  One thing that I did do around early January was to change my buy order increments from $500 to $1,000 and also to remove buy orders that were on the books between $4k-ish and $9k-ish.. -- still keeping some buy orders mid $9ks... so those overall tweaks felt good.. sure there were some tweaks on the upside too, including adding more orders in the UPpity direction - and I did tweak some of the amounts of those down a bit, too.. but not a whole hell of a lot.. but at a level MOAR comfortable to me and what I could see to be happening and considered to have good odds of happening.

10k seemed like pie in the sky once upon a time. Yet also inevitable if you believe in the fundamentals. Our poor little monkey brains are ill-equipped to handle outlandish mathematical truths but yet take them in stride when they occur. 1M this cycle though? Almost certainly not. But eventually, surely. We may even be back in the wilderness of long slow downs until next time already (Though this time, it will be much less stressful to me due to the power of hodl). I haven't seen the real FOMO of previous peaks but lower highs, higher lows was always the prediction and there's only so much fiat out there no matter how fast they run the presses. I privately had around 60k for the top this time but there's definitely room for at least one more rally. I guess let's see what happens when the stimulus checks come through.