Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6020. (Read 26712899 times)

copper member
Activity: 1316
Merit: 715
Eloncoin.org - Mars, here we come!
Anyone use the A400 Kingston SSDs? They seem to be a good value, maybe they suck as SSDs, but they're still better than spinning platters. Saw a review where if you actually fill it up halfway it starts turning bad or slow or something.



legendary
Activity: 3416
Merit: 1912
The Concierge of Crypto
Anyone use the A400 Kingston SSDs? They seem to be a good value, maybe they suck as SSDs, but they're still better than spinning platters. Saw a review where if you actually fill it up halfway it starts turning bad or slow or something.
hero member
Activity: 812
Merit: 587
Space Lord
Very much confirms alts, smart contracts and whatever other BS ain't worth shit without BTC leading the way.



Obviously. It has been like this forever.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 9201
'The right to privacy matters'
Just purchased some at 45k

buy the dip

legendary
Activity: 3290
Merit: 16489
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
Yellen and Musk taking a shit on bitcoin together, right around options expiry
I had no idea who Yellen is. Turns out it's an old woman who used to work for the Fed and is now the United States Secretary of the Treasury.


I know one thing: if a granny at the Department of the Treasury worries about Bitcoin, that's not because she's so concerned with small guys losing their savings. They fear for their own interests.
Bitcoin doesn't care. But the fact that the Department of the Treasury cares is very, very bullish.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
9. I will not include a self-destruct mechanism unless absolutely necessary. If it is necessary, it will not be a large red button labeled “Danger: Do Not Push”. The big red button marked “Do Not Push” will instead trigger a spray of bullets on anyone stupid enough to disregard it. Similarly, the ON/OFF switch will not clearly be labeled as such.

best self destruct button ever was in Forbidden Planet. the button to destroy the entire planet was in what was basically called a school classroom for children.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!


...and fewer know the timing of those steps.

Conclusion: HoDL.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
Very much confirms alts, smart contracts and whatever other BS ain't worth shit without BTC leading the way.

legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?

if im paying the fee to get into a block how is that asking others to support me? im paying my way and miners set that fee, not me. i pay to play.

If miners set the fee, we wouldn't be having this discussion. If miners "set" a $200 fee and 10,000 people were willing to pay that fee, they would not all get into the block. Thus that fee could not have been said to be set at all. It is only the artificial scarcity of the artificially limited block space that forces fees high for those that want to participate.

oh please.

so lets say miners are the gate keepers. if your fee meets their criteria you are in. if not, increase fee to try again or go home.

 
legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin

This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.

The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.

*Above prices are taken from Deribit.
How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5.

I posted a link earlier, here it is again.
https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras.

Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  Tongue

I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7%
As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike.

Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement.

Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk"
I didn't know about CBOE discontinuing BTC futures, or about CME futures being cash settled.

Transfer timing, 3rd party risk and other factors do exist. No trade is a free lunch: even arbitrages can go awry. However, the so-called inverse futures have a mathematical structure such that short positions with leverage < 1 can never get liquidated. Just sayin'.

EDIT in ELI5 form for OP - I have to add, though, that this arbitrage works either way - number go up or number go down - only because the profits are measured in fiat. When measured in bitcoin, there are profits only if number go down. So for a real hodler it's not really an arbitrage, but rather either (a) a sale (at over market price, though!), or (b) a btc gain. What it turns out to be depends if number go up/down.

In other words: if number go up, you end up with a higher dollar value, but your btc value has gone down (you still give up less btc than if you had sold, because the resulting effective price is over market). If number go down, you end up with a higher dollar value and a higher btc amount too: your btc quantity goes up, since number went down and the result must make up for that, PLUS the arbitrage profit.

This could be one of the reasons why short interest in futures is always so high, and futures expiry dates are so often bloody for the hodlers - just like now.
legendary
Activity: 3514
Merit: 2246
🌀 Cosmic Casino
I like this one at the moment

legendary
Activity: 3620
Merit: 4813
World premiere of the new Mercedes C class.

It's basically a smaller S class but more sporty and it's bigger than the previous C model.

Already contacted my local dealer, he said there will be a special introduction model.

I'm on the potential buyer's list, it will be either the E coupe ore this new C model. Smiley

https://media.mercedes-benz.com/c-class

legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 13647
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Good morning all.

Bloodbath. Shitcoins too.

Looks like $60k must be postponed for a few more days...

Lasers on.

Few days seems reasonable
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!
Good morning all.

Bloodbath. Shitcoins too.

Looks like $60k must be postponed for a few more days...

Lasers on.
hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 961
fly or die
Well, as I said it's best to have fiat (shitcoin) for this one. Which is why I won't do it. But, basically you buy however many BTC on the spot for current price of 55000. At the exact same time you sell a future, perhaps Sep 26th for this example, for the same number of BTC at a current price of 62700. profit equals 7,700 minus fees per coin

This can be done using CBOE and CME as well as many others, perhaps less reputable exchanges.

The risk for this trade is couter-party only and of course opportunity cost (there is no possiblity of capital gains or losses). Not your keys not your coins. Thing is it's all about levels of risk and what you are comfortable with in the end as well as your goals. Just remember nothing is risk free. Even holding your own keys is not risk free, there are roughly 4million inaccessible coins to prove that.

*Above prices are taken from Deribit.
How does this work exactly? I would love a bit more ELI5.

I posted a link earlier, here it is again.
https://blog.bitmex.com/how-to-arbitrage-bitcoin-futures-vs-spot/

The WO sometimes must be combed thoroughly, but it usually does deliver good info - be it bitcoin or digital cameras.

Or you're just halftrolling and... username checks out?  Tongue

I don't believe CBOE offers BTC futures anymore. And i don't see Sept futures on CME. They're not trading now but i believe June futures were trading at around 7% premium. What you're forgetting is that CME is cash settled so they won't take your BTC as collateral for margin. Thus you'd actually need to lock up 150%, 100% to hedge with real BTC and then 50% to post for margin. At 150% that would bring actual premium down from 7% to 4,7%
As far as risks, you're forgetting that if BTC goes up before your settlement date you're gonna get margin called and will need to come up with more cash, or get automatically closed on a spike.

Also transfer times might be an issue, you'd need to sell your BTC and transfer funds to yourself and then to your broker at settlement.

Sure there are some premiums to be had if you want to tolerate the risk, just don't try to claim "140% returns with 0 risk"

I thought this seemed too easy. If the future was settled in BTC and collateral was in BTC that would be good, free money with no risk, but if everything is in fiat, that's another story entirely. And when you sell BTC to settle the future there are capital gains.
legendary
Activity: 2186
Merit: 1213
Yellen and Musk taking a shit on bitcoin together, right around options expiry

USA is so thoroughly corrupted, morally, ethically and financially, that the putrid pile of chaos that will be left behind after it implodes on itself will burn for decades

What did Musk say? His tweets are one day old.
hero member
Activity: 2604
Merit: 961
fly or die
Bisq flashing on my left monitor, a sell has happened, then I look at the price : less than 39000€ WTH ! (not my selling price, but the average price)

Bought back with my usual profit elsewhere so no issue, in fact if it's crashing there is no risk for me, but I need to buy before a bounce.

The price on Kraken is moving like mad, I'm removing my offers, don't need that stress right now.
legendary
Activity: 2688
Merit: 2470
$120000 in 2024 Confirmed
Yellen and Musk taking a shit on bitcoin together, right around options expiry

USA is so thoroughly corrupted, morally, ethically and financially, that the putrid pile of chaos that will be left behind after it implodes on itself will burn for decades

Agreed
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
Far, Far, Far Right Thug
Hey Babe, fancy a ride, I'm a Bitcoin Hodler.



Sure sweet honey anytime, where's your orange Lambo car at?



It's right here.




WTF?!



Like I said I'm a Bitcoin Hodler.
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