I also listened to those and also to NUPL discussion somewhere else, but it seems exceedingly unlikely that we would be able to maintain the tempo until December, which, in my opinion, makes this cycle similar to 2013 (two-humped) with a first peak earlier than expected, say, the end of Feb-early April at much higher than now (maybe 65-100K), then a steep correction to 40-55K (depending on whether it starts at 65 or 100), then flat city until the end of August, then the cycle hurrah burst to whatever number we can reach (150-288K, maybe even higher), ending in Nov-Dec, as usual.
The way that you are describing the double peak (similar to 2013) may well justify that the second half of the peak get drug out for a much longer period of time than it had played out in 2013 - surely reasonable to drag out into any of the first 3 quarters of 2022 - yet the longer that such second peak might drag out might cause it to fall into a bit of a category that ends up being a supercycle rather than anything really so comparable to 2013 and even including smaller dips.. .. Even your exact proposed scenario of a correction from $65k to $100k down to $40k to $55k (45%-ish) is way the hell of a smaller correction than what had happened in 2013 when the peak was something like $263 and the correction was down to $70-ish (85%-ish).
That's just how I see it and using your numbers, 263 to 70 is a 73.3% correction, not 85%. I do expect a touch less volatility, or at least i hope so.
Bitcoin is unpredictable, though. all above is just a conjecture. future numbers would show if i am right or not.
In a big 5-10 year picture it probably does not matter anyway.
