Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6108. (Read 26711605 times)

OR it means that "fully diluted" btc is at 1tril valuation (1.008.000 mil)  

+merit for doing the right thing!

Also... you should sell now, probably correction is happening, dunno if we get 50K soon or if its a flash crash then Up!        

This statement, 600watt, reminds me of a fairly common expression that I had been attempting to use to inform peeps in real life about the benefits of getting into BTC, and the price does not matter very much.  I would say that I have been making the same recommendation for years, which has been no matter the price to get your buying abilities set up and then figure out some kind of plan to start to get a stake on a regular basis at whatever level that you feel comfortable, even though I recommend a 1% to 10% range for starting out... and in that regard, my suggestions would be accompanied by a statement that in the coming years we are likely going to be witnessing one of the BIGGEST (if not the biggest) wealth transfers in history... which was attempt to provide a framework in which my audience would be able to appreciate the magnitude and importance of BTC - including the fact that you don't even need to establish a very large investment portfolio into BTC to be able to profit stupendously from BTC, so long as you got off zero - which again 1% to 10% was my suggested starting range, but I also had an appreciation that people need to come to their own conclusions and determinations but still even a statement from me in regards to a likely BIGGEST wealth transfer in history was not enough to motivate hardly anyone into actually beginning a prudent and reasonable BTC investment strategy.  Go figure?


Oh.  Thanks.  I figured that it was something fairly straight-forward, but I guess my head was not in the right place, exactly.

When they do that, ... maybe someone will take up their bet. It's like trying to short BTC ... it's not going to end well for them. BTC itself will still be there. "Paper BTC" will have to follow.

Canada has gone ahead with the first ETF. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-approves-worlds-first-bitcoin-etf-for-retail-investors/

It means that it is still early days. You need to pay 21 bitcoins for a million dollars.

I already have both GBTC and QBTC in IRAs and Roth's (in "moderation", not going 100% btc), no more for me  

Strange.. but very likely true.

The "good ole" days.  #nostalgia


I am slow.

What does this mean...?

Give it to me straight.

Sure, this might be the case in the beginning, but surely Dabs you are not so naive as to think it will stay that way for very long?

As happened with the PMs not long after PM ETFs became a thing, there eventually will be relaxed rules around the underlying Bitcoin asset, eventually relaxed reserve rules and lack of audits/transparency, then re-hypothecation, phantom shares, over-leveraged naked shorting, etc., etc. And the SEC will turn a blind eye to all of it.

It will all happen to Bitcoin too eventually, guaranteed. It's not a matter of if, only a matter of when.

I don't have any GBTC, but I've been looking at QBTC, BITC, ABTC. The last one is sort of an official ETF, but it's still very new.

https://bitbo.io/

is a good reference site to see the Price and Premiums of GBTC, QBTC, BTCG and BITC. Negative premiums are so tasty...

Is it really? With GBTC being available, albeit with warts and stuff (premium and a largish fee), what new will the ETP/ETF provide?
Besides, I am sure Barry will find a way to re-position/re-file GBTC as ETF. He will have to at least halve or maybe even quarter his fees, though.
One consequence, though, would be that MSTR at $1000 at these bitcoin prices would be a gigantic short if/when ETF launches since their stock price is >3Xthe price of bitcoin that they have.

But ETFs follow the price and do not dictate the price. The price will only go up because the fund manager is forced to "physically" acquire more of the underlying, as in, to actually get the bitcoins, either from OTC or from exchanges, or they have some sort of connection with the big custodial ones that service institutions (Gemini, Grayscale, Coinbase are some examples).

It would also be a danger to the ETF fund manager / owner, to rehypothecate. They would need to show the BTC somehow, either through a regulated custodial entity, or if they self-custody, some sort of proof perhaps showing the address or the balance, or at least telling the world how many bitcoins they have.

In lieu of actual US ETFs, one can simply invest in GBTC, QBTC, BITC, ABTC, maybe in TSLA, MSTR, GLXY, MARA, SQ, BTCG.U ... QBTC is "The Bitcoin Fund" and is almost an ETF but it's Canadian. ABTC is another Canadian ETF that closely tracks BTC. Tesla and MicroStrategy, as we know, both have at least a billion dollars worth of BTC each, and are legal to own in your government regulated retirement or savings funds / brokerage accounts, 401k, ROTH IRA or RRSP, TFSA or whatever is applicable in your country.

They will most likely just follow exchange prices or some BTC index or even an average. They can follow Bitstamp for example, and if they need more shares, they just buy more BTC driving up the price, but at least the fund manager themselves actually own and control BTC, either through a custodial service or they have cold storage and keep the private keys.

Almost all of them will be using multi-signature for this purpose. It's the next wave of cold storage and allows you to have at least one error without losing access.

It's good... and bad, as well.
Remember, we were noobs too...

This heat map shows all bitcoin ever spent by the date the bitcoin was originally acquired:


(click image for full resolution)
https://twitter.com/Steve_Jeffress/status/1342912542868447232

This heat map shows all bitcoin ever spent by the date the bitcoin was originally acquired:


(click image for full resolution)
https://twitter.com/Steve_Jeffress/status/1342912542868447232

 Mmmmm... palatable FOAM-O

The FOMO is palatable.

This all makes sense, as long there are no major Bitcoin ETFs.

When major and prominent Bitcoin ETFs become a thing, they will likely blow a hole in the typical halving/bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin, as price will rise suddenly and dramatically in a hockey stick fashion, and then the curve will flatten out. Which will completely obscure any past price discovery mechanism of bitcoin through a supply/demand model, as prices will likely be orders of magnitude higher than typical due to Wall Street's extreme margin fueled over-leveraging. Bitcoin mining hashrate will possibly lag for years and years behind this event as mega miners struggle to get new hardware online.

That's why it's so critical for today's Average Joe to get in before Bitcoin ETFs begin to rule the day. Once this event passes, all bets are off and God knows who will be controlling the price of bitcoin beyond that point.

Whatever you might want or not want, king daddy bitcoin does not give any shits, and in that regard, you just need to do whatever you can in terms of your own situation to be reasonable and prudent in regards to your stacking approach or even if you might believe that the UPpity might be more likely than the flat or the dips that you are wishing for that might not happen.

Sure, you may well be excused in your delinquencies to stack sats in earlier days, and even seeing that you have less than a year of being registered in this forum.


That's the million dollar question.  The peak could be a single peak that builds up and then has a blow-off top, or we could have one peak with a decent amount of downside that is extended for a significant period of time that ends up having a double peak.  Those are the two scenarios of either a 2017 single top or a double top that was more like 2013.   Sure there could be some other variation of that, or maybe there is hardly any upside left (which does not currently seem to be a very likely scenario).

We know that there are a lot of people and institutions who are currently making bets on upside BTC scenarios in the near to medium term, but none of us are really going to know how long the various cycles could play out, and such cycles could play out further into 2022 than the 1st quarter that you mentioned.  Personally, I feel like I have hardly any clues even though I recognize that various price prediction models have been playing out very closely in line with more likely scenarios.. and even those models are far from certain, even when BTC prices seem to be in-lock step with them.. Go figure?


Obviously you have few clues, dieselmeister, even though you have been seeming quite "dip-inclined" in recent months, and such dips that you seem to have been inclined for have not really been happening.. so there is that.  Sucks to be you.


You really believe that there is very much of an ability to really control BTC price matters in any kind of meaningful way?

Could be.. Yet, I have my doubt, for sure.

I'm sure JJG wants to bat-slap me now.