Oh yes, Sunday now
Weekend dump before the pump
Healthy correction
BTC is really for the strong hearted... and those who look at it from macro-level.
Just when we are all enthralled with the enthusiasm of $100k price, it is already heading north not because it is the right direction at this time but just to prove that no one can accurately predict its movement. The best we can do while it decides what it wants to do. Anyways, 1
BTC = 1
BTC, and you only lose when you sell.
Now I see why people do this "1
BTC = 1
BTC" thingie...
It is because it is so difficult to keep track of its price... but still. it just isn't saying anything... even though maybe someone is using the expression to say to hang onto your BTC and/or stack more of them if you can no matter how much they might cost in terms of fiat. Even though I don't really disagree with it, I still don't really like the expression.
I saw this yesterday, we can how past predictions is failing already, 2030 $90,962.23 when in reality we are expecting $100k around this year and next year.
Bitcoin price in the long term is not predictable. I agree with the 1
BTC = 1
BTC.
In the end what matters is to keep stacking because nobody may get the actual price but this we know that HODLing bitcoin will make us rich.
I have a question, do you think anyone doing DCA should switch to Lump Sum strategy?
Since we are aware of the up bitcoin halving in a month+ from now and getting bitcoin during at that time will helps us acquire more quantity of bitcoin in comparison with the quantity we can acquire through DCA now to that time
Those are pretty whimpy predictions. The prediction starts with today's spot price and then multiplies by 5% each year, and we already know that BTC's 200-WMA moves up more than 20% per year (and 20% was its worst level of increase ever), so even conservative measures of how the 200-WMA moves up, beat that whimpy-assed prediction.
My current FU status chart shows the bottom as $136.5k with 14.66 BTC as fuck you status for mid 2030.. with
5/31/30 $136,455 14.65688302
And my anticipated update shows
5/31/30 $185,233 10.79718532
And, the above are bottom prices... so yeah, it is possible that the 200-WMA starts to underperform 20% per year, but I surely have my doubts... and a bare minimum of 20% per year would put you at similar numbers for the 200-WMA as you are showing with:
March 2024 $32,250
March 2025 $38,700
March 2026 $46,440
March 2027 $55,728
March 2028 $66,874
March 2029 $80,248
March 2030 $96,298
I surely have my doubts about that level of whimpiness, even though it is possible to happen that way, it seems like a less likely scenario.
In regards to your question, most people employ DCA because it is either 1) their only choice because they do not have lump sum amounts available to them, or 2) they move funds from one area to another with DCA because it is the most feasible way to do it... so they might in essence have a lump sum and then they just divide it up into several payments over several months and might even drag out their establishing their full BTC position for 6 months to a year or longer.
Lump sum investing can be considered as a way of front loading your investment, and I am a pretty big fan of attempting to front load your investment, yet at the same time, if you have already been DCAing in BTC for over year a and a half at around $100 per week (so lets say you got around $8k invested) - if we go by your forum registration date.. but you did not front load until now, then you seem to be FOMOing instead of front loading.. ...
but hey, whatever, better late than never, and so under this scenario, you have been holding back and so now after a year and a half of DCAing, you are having regrets that you did not DCA more aggressively, and you had been holding back, and so now you have $8k extra built up that you were waiting for the right time, and the right time did not come.. so therefore, you want to just Yolo it all in.. which maybe does not sound very rational.. but if you are regretting that you did not invest as much, then maybe you have to divide it in half and put $4k in and save the other $4k for buying on dips and just continue to DCA with your $100 per week. Now in regards to my numbers, you can adjust them however you like to your own actual scenario...
I am just throwing out a possible scenario that shows you had already been investing, which maybe you spent 9 months sitting around and then the last 9 months you started to take bitcoin seriously and realized that you had not been investing as aggressively as you should, so when you invest whatever you have, you will largely be FOMOing in.
