I hope that you are not suffering too much, LFC... with that cold iron fist of yours.
There surely is some value with delayed gratification.. and yeah, there could be a bit of a dilemma for some HODLers regarding the extent to which a wee bit of shaving off could be prudent - and yeah, we don't really feel like a blow off top or anything like that, even though many of us had been thinking that $40k or $50k-ish would be good areas to sell decent amounts of stash.. but many of us are not feeling so inclined in these here days... for some reason.. not feeling like the cycle has run.. and it seems still early.. we are like in the early to mid - 2017s rather than the late 2017s.. so it seems.. and gosh, could we be in the early 2013s so deserving two blow off tops in this cycle with the second blow off top obviously playing out as a 5 to 10x BIGGER one.. ?
I am not going to say.. even though I have some theories that are floating in the decent odds categorizations... feelings... oh oh oh .. feelings...
I finally have a sell strategy, after all these years. I set up a spreadsheet with a sell ladder. I’m not going to go too deep into it but my sells start about $10,000 north from the current price & continue every $5,000 (roughly) until we hit $250,000.
Nothing goes as you plan it perfectly but at least I have a starting point now.
I’d like to continue HODLING at least 25% of my stash long term.
Let’s see how this cycle plays out
I'm still not sure whether I'll start selling at $50k or should I move my sell orders to $75-80 area. So far I'm ready to sell at $50k but it won't last long. I guess I will wait until the end of the month or so. Institutions must try harder to get my coins, dammit!
I also think I will keep some 25%-50% of my stash at least for one more cycle. I will NEVER sell my entire stash and become a nocoiner!
selling
BTC for what? Gold? OK (IMO) if you are a bit over invested in
BTC. Silver? OK, for our U.S. friends because most of them think silver cannot be confiscated. FIAT? Not OK (IMO) just in case you really need some to buy other things.
Why not selling for FIAT? Why do all the stocks, real estate, land, commodities etc. increase in price? It's not because their value is increasing all the time. But the value of FIAT is decreasing all the time therefore the price of the others in FIAT is increasing. think about it.
very refreshing to observe that the sentiment in WO has changed a bit. it used to be "what is the best exit strategy on cycle top?"
to " never sell ALL your coins"
i am flip flopping between selling only some, keeping basically 90% or so. or selling 50% to 80% of stash, hopefully close to the top.
this is hard to decide. in my case, and i am sure others are in the same boat, it is the single most important financial decision of my life - so far.
going through a multiyear 80% correction without having sold any is gut wrenching. i have done it twice and promised myself, not to do this again.
the little problem with this promise is, that ... well ... this time it could be different
TM. Either this run up or the next one will be, imho, the one where bitcoin reaches
escape velocity. there will still be corrections but no 80% multiyear suffering.
worst outcome is sell all and then price does another 2x or more and does not come back. you did not hodl all the years to fold just short of the finish line.
i played around with laddering. start at 80k and sell up to 50% of stash until 400k in little steps.
but: selling means trading the best money ever for dirty fiat that is getting debased to the point it crashes completely.
best outcome would be: price runs up, fiat semi-collapses and all the world wakes up and all they want is bitcoin to trade for their villas or lambos. then bitcoiners would not need to sell.
this "should i sell, and if yes, how much and when" is a game that we will not have to play forever. within this decade, maybe even in the first half, this question will be answered for good: hodl!
this year is the year where we will have to play this thing right. good to have a forum where we can discuss.
To me, it seems that you are going through the correct process, but I am having some difficulties understanding how you could think about the problem so much and still end up with such a gap in what options that you feel that you would like to carry out. Seems that you are still with a kind of gambler mentality.
Anyhow, your plan to sell 50% of your stash up to $400k sounds just great, but if 50% is feeling uncomfortable, then tailor such percentage down until you reach a point that you are comfortable no matter what happens... yeah, I know it is difficult to ever be completely comfortable with whatever happens because we are going to be continuing to second-guess our lil selfies... but yeah, if selling 50% makes you uncomfortable at 400k, then consider retaining 60%.. or retaining 70% or 80% and there should be a price point that you end up considering in which you are comfortable.. you seem to NOT be comfortable with either 50% or 90%.. but somewhere in the middle should be something that you can "live with."
Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good because you are never going to get the matter perfect. What do you believe yourself to be? a soothsayer? You are not, and you know that you are not, so you just do your best to get an approximate range that makes you comfortable within theory and as you are carrying it out and executing such plan, you can tweak it along the way if it will cause you to become more comfortable because you figure out that you had over estimated ur lil selfie in one direction or another as the fiat is stacking up and you are figuring out what are you going to do with all of that stacked up fiat.. Is it too much fiat, or not? Do you have a way to use it? or to hold it in storage or not?
Only you ......
.......can really hone in upon what gives you some level of comfort both financially and psychologically, and sure you might have to tweak a wee bit along the way, which is not a death knell, even if it would be a bit preferible to be able to stick to a plan that you have made, but we retain discretion as humans to actually change our minds and to tweak a wee bit if we feel that is the better course of action after we had put a previous course of action into play that ends up not being as suitable as we had anticipated.
