I hope that you are not suffering too much, LFC... with that cold iron fist of yours.
There surely is some value with delayed gratification.. and yeah, there could be a bit of a dilemma for some HODLers regarding the extent to which a wee bit of shaving off could be prudent - and yeah, we don't really feel like a blow off top or anything like that, even though many of us had been thinking that $40k or $50k-ish would be good areas to sell decent amounts of stash.. but many of us are not feeling so inclined in these here days... for some reason.. not feeling like the cycle has run.. and it seems still early.. we are like in the early to mid - 2017s rather than the late 2017s.. so it seems.. and gosh, could we be in the early 2013s so deserving two blow off tops in this cycle with the second blow off top obviously playing out as a 5 to 10x BIGGER one.. ?
I am not going to say.. even though I have some theories that are floating in the decent odds categorizations... feelings... oh oh oh .. feelings...
I finally have a sell strategy, after all these years. I set up a spreadsheet with a sell ladder. I’m not going to go too deep into it but my sells start about $10,000 north from the current price & continue every $5,000 (roughly) until we hit $250,000.
Nothing goes as you plan it perfectly but at least I have a starting point now.
I’d like to continue HODLING at least 25% of my stash long term.
Let’s see how this cycle plays out
I'm still not sure whether I'll start selling at $50k or should I move my sell orders to $75-80 area. So far I'm ready to sell at $50k but it won't last long. I guess I will wait until the end of the month or so. Institutions must try harder to get my coins, dammit!
I also think I will keep some 25%-50% of my stash at least for one more cycle. I will NEVER sell my entire stash and become a nocoiner!
selling
BTC for what? Gold? OK (IMO) if you are a bit over invested in
BTC. Silver? OK, for our U.S. friends because most of them think silver cannot be confiscated. FIAT? Not OK (IMO) just in case you really need some to buy other things.
Why not selling for FIAT? Why do all the stocks, real estate, land, commodities etc. increase in price? It's not because their value is increasing all the time. But the value of FIAT is decreasing all the time therefore the price of the others in FIAT is increasing. think about it.
very refreshing to observe that the sentiment in WO has changed a bit. it used to be "what is the best exit strategy on cycle top?"
to " never sell ALL your coins"
i am flip flopping between selling only some, keeping basically 90% or so. or selling 50% to 80% of stash, hopefully close to the top.
this is hard to decide. in my case, and i am sure others are in the same boat, it is the single most important financial decision of my life - so far.
going through a multiyear 80% correction without having sold any is gut wrenching. i have done it twice and promised myself, not to do this again.
the little problem with this promise is, that ... well ... this time it could be different
TM. Either this run up or the next one will be, imho, the one where bitcoin reaches
escape velocity. there will still be corrections but no 80% multiyear suffering.
worst outcome is sell all and then price does another 2x or more and does not come back. you did not hodl all the years to fold just short of the finish line.
i played around with laddering. start at 80k and sell up to 50% of stash until 400k in little steps.
but: selling means trading the best money ever for dirty fiat that is getting debased to the point it crashes completely.
best outcome would be: price runs up, fiat semi-collapses and all the world wakes up and all they want is bitcoin to trade for their villas or lambos. then bitcoiners would not need to sell.
this "should i sell, and if yes, how much and when" is a game that we will not have to play forever. within this decade, maybe even in the first half, this question will be answered for good: hodl!
this year is the year where we will have to play this thing right. good to have a forum where we can discuss.
. On one hand, you never know for sure what it may reach, on the other, you want some gains in-between. Make a plan that you can accept the consequences of whichever way it goes.
