Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 684. (Read 26468952 times)

I don't think that average mining cost is 50K/btc right now.

This says that it is 63K, which seems too high.
Philip?

So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...

My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much, especially the more parabolic the price has gone. I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K, as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.

Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs. Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional. If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K, I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.

So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)

More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from, which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016). So I'm not expecting much different here, unlike a lot of other speculative theories knocking around, from $100K within X amount of days or my estimation of dropping to around $30K; the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved. Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell. For example if we hold $50K until the halving, the effects would likely be immediate bullish based on current demand.

Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively. Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points. Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness. So if you want to put faith in these newbies (that can be translated into price >$50K, then feel free, but I won't be participating in this facade).

Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero consequences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.

PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either, I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever). If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type, I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.

The righteousness of this correction (in my mind) is disturbed by a mental image of Gareth Soloway being pleased by this.

I think it’s only a month or little longer ago… I almost made a bet in the WO about BTC not being under 30k or something and we’re at 60+ still

Correct post

Except………… nobody but absolutely nobody says anyone should be selling 😅

Oh my..  You might be more lost than I had previously assessed.

In udder wurds:

HELP!!!!!!!!!!



You deserve it.

Fuck shitcoins.


Key word:  "Supposedly"


Fuck shitcoins.

You deserve it, and maybe even more for causing us (perhaps royal?) to suffer in these here parts.


Oh gawd...  

Never thought that I would feel inclined to ppppppuuuukkkeee from a cherry on top.

I used to like cherries.

 

Ya, funny how a few days ago this price would have had people screaming that this is a monster rally. Now suddenly it’s all over and everyone should sell. While I don’t doubt there will be a correction here, I think it will be short lived. There is just too much money flooding in and the halving will be here in no time.

Just newbies trying to fit in with the more experienced ones, it's not easy...  

Having choppers every $1k upward movement may start to feel a wee bit nutso.. and at some point the increment is going to need to expand.


I have my doubts that any Ethereum Spot ETF is going to get approved this year.. but who knows?  Never say never.


Well, your forum registration date is a year and a half, so there could be some possibilities that you could have come into bitcoin swinging and even front loaded your investment - but yeah, even with that, it would likely still be difficult to catch up to the earlier investors - which might be part of the legitimacy of the statement that "time in the market" is better than "timing the market."

So, you can choose your level of aggressiveness, and maybe it won't take 20 years for you to start to feel like an OG.  Many of us had started to feel somewhat like an OG after making it through 1 whole bitcoin cycle - and the more that you focus on BTC and don't get distracted by bullshit, then likely the better progress that you would be able to make within your own parameters.

Another thing is that you are likely your own best competitor in terms of figuring out ways to compete against yourself in terms of figuring out ways to help to make your own situation better without overly damaging yourself along the way.


I could think of worse things to do.

By the way, with current BTC price action, we might get knocked back down into don't wake me up zone.  Not that I am predicting it.. but you can never really know about these kinds of surprise packages, somewhat illiquid exchanges and also desires to try to shake as many newbies from their corn as possible.. since it tends to be the newbies that don't recognize the value of the thingie that they hold.

Go figure.

I’m starting to feel that a “you must be new here” post will soon be appropriate.

so an all time high and declared dead on the same day?

nice

That happens too.  I am not going to deny.


Yes and yes.


You are too smart for your own good.  

 


Many times it is not good to rethink too much, especially if you spent a decent amount of time establishing your earlier (or current) plan in the first place.  

Maybe tweak your plan a bit, but don't go overboard in your rethinking and then tweaking it too much in the opposite direction, unless you have compelling reasons for coming to your new thinking (such as realizing that you were too much of a "whimp" in the earlier plan.. hahahahahaha.. ... I have a forum member to whom I could refer you.).

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Sorry, but i was wrong. The correct date is 10th of March. I don't know why i was under assumption that today was 03/09.
Anyway, just wanted to put this straight, trying not to look like a complete idiot 

I'm not leaving




[/quote]

I'm not leaving....




Take your effing dirty poop fiat for your council tax, income tax, VAT, travel tax, car insurance tax, fuel duty taxes, national insurance, gas bill + tax, electricity bill + tax, water bill + tax, VED, TV Licence.
I don't give a shit because I'm a hodler.

Edit: actually closer to 200x

                                                🎈

                                             🤡

 
 Watching FIAT die down here.

I was promised prostitutes, lamborghinis, dubai, private jets, trips to Ibiza, but apparently it was all a lie