Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6878. (Read 26713261 times)

technology adoption always follows a s-curve. the beginning is flat, then it becomes exponential (looks like a hockey stick) and when mass adoption occurs it shoots straight up and only starts flattening when saturated (widely adopted).


when the new tech is money the graph not only shows the adoption of users but also the value of the money.

when rockets are fired up to reach space they need to carry enough energy to overcome earths gravity. they need to acquire escape velocity.  if they don't get over this threshold they could not leave earth.

bitcoin expands in short violent run-ups followed by years of loss of value and consolidation. this circular pattern conditions bitcoin hodlers to feel bad about "not selling at the top" in order to own a lot of cash and furthermore to later buy back more bitcoin, when price reached the bottom of the cycle.

especially when reaching "life changing" or "fuck you" amounts of money. especially when the hodler realizes that he/she could have escaped the rat race with that amount of fiat. since the bear markets are usually multi year, the hodler has plenty of time to develop this regret.

it feels bad to look back to previous all-time highs and punching the numbers in a calculator and figuring out how many btc one could have bought if and only if...      but be aware that there is another feeling that is even worse: having sold to early. remember all the posts in this forum where folks argued about how rational it was to take profits and sell btc for $20. or $200 or $2000

during one of the next giant run-ups bitcoin will reach escape velocity. which means the old game of multiyear bears will not occur anymore. bitcoin will enter the steep upward phase of the s-curve.

don't be a multiyear hardened btc hodler that finally learned how to sell at an anticipated local top only to see the price never coming back. develop a strategy to avoid this worst possible outcome: a bitcoin hodler with zero bitcoin in that moment of history when bitcoin is winning. with strategy I don't mean some weird trading strategy. trading btc is a losing game for 99% of players.


the only way to make sure you always have some bitcoin is to always keep some/most bitcoin.


my own strategy is very simple: when bitcoin reaches escape velocity I want to still own at least 50% of my stash. in my mind half my stash is reserved for my descendants. they are in Uber-cold storage. I will never touch them. I will never punch them in any calculator to figure out momentary fiat value.

with the other half I may or may not try to play the "sell at top" game. not convinced yet since all I would get for my precious btc is lots of melting dirty fiat. problem is that this is the only way ever for me to acquire more btc.  maybe I should only play that game with a quarter of my stash.

what is your plan?




edited

The Divided States of America?

When in doubt, HODL!

We saw it coming, but it is a notable event.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El4ujGdXgAAuQsI.jpg

In case you have a spare half an hour this is a remarkable documentary made by some fellow Italian bitcoiners:

Digital Rush




It should also be available on Prime Video US and UK.

Biden has 11 million Twitter followers, Trump 89
Maybe Democracy works in some mysterious ways and Twitter followers/likes have no meaning what so ever.

Based on the preparations in New York ...

It is highly likely that Commander-in-Chief Biden will be in one part of the United States and Commander-in-Chief Trump in another.
The rest, in confusion, do not obey anyone and rely only on their Colt.

https://twitter.com/Excellion/status/1323020377988059136

I bet on Biden too. Wont mind losing as my taxes will be lower if/when I finally sell some coins. Win, win. 

Either guy will print tons of money so Bitcoin wins no matter what.

Quite like this newly launched stats page: https://bitbo.io/

This will be a good test for BTC. Expecting a lot of uncertainty/fear/volatility next few (possibly month) as such expecting markets to pull back and deleverage. If BTC drops it's still used as a highly leveraged speculative asset, if it rises when markets fall, we can finally decouple and then the moon.

tl;dr next 24hrs are critical

since bitcoin is a bearer asset it is possible to possess bitcoin. of course we all know that there are no physical bitcoin you send around the interwebs or keep them in your wallet - what you can physically own in reality are the private keys that allow you to spent your UTXO´s. be aware that the UTXO´s never leave the bitcoin network. it is a closed system. the bitcoin blockchain is a closed system: it is permissionless and p2p, but the info on the ledger never leaves the ledger.

1) bitcoin (the unit) can never leave the blockchain, where it is embedded
2) the only thing a bitcoin is pegged to is energy due to the mining process (impossible to directly peg a bitcoin (or any other blockchain token) to a physical object.) there are no utility coins possible due to this.
3) since it is a closed system that can only be pegged to energy there are only very limited use cases: the only thing a token in a closed system can be used for is if it represents something. imagine some weird machine that juggles table tennis balls. the balls can not leave the machine. what utility can the balls bring to users? they can represent something, that is it. what could they represent? the only abstract thing that would make sense to organize in an immutable ledger would be money. since moneys only use case is to represent value, this is the only use case for a token in a closed system.

blockchains can only be used as money. since bitcoin has won the race long ago and by far, it is utterly useless to create, invest in, waste time on 7500 additional money protocols.

money pegged to energy is the only way to go. unpegged money will get printed into inflation. gold pegged money will always first lose its peg and then will get printed into inflation. our fiat money system derived from a gold pegged system, the dollar is a layer 2 scaling solution for gold.

the 2020ies will bring the transition. don't be scared. bitcoin is great and will save us.


edit: typos

these are the bridges bitcoin sceptics can use to move over to our side. to the side the is winning. and yes, hope needs to be part of the transition.

Yeah not giving away btc any more but still running the thread.

Next two jumps and price flow are very important.

Hoping bull kicks ass but worried.

You need to continue your hashrate prediction thread!!!

Thank you for the explaination 

I speculate that she was looking at your eye colors (maybe getting tinglies too.. if she could see that you had a lil fiend secret contained therein), and then looking at your ID... and since your eye color had not changed, therefore, probably your blood type had not changed, either... Go figure.


Missing 2016 - which is the four-year fractal comparison year...

Go figure?

... I see some tail risk from the election result if Trump wins.

... it's possible the establishment's plan upon a resounding loss to Trump is to pull the pin on the financial system, which is shaky and doesn't need much to push it over.

... they have thrown every dirty trick at him from illegal investigations to Impeachment on charges to cover up their candidates financial crimes, some will be facing treason, sedition or illegal spying charges iff Trump wins so the stakes are high

... he is too much of a threat to their plans for a New World Order, the virus is also part of that plan I'm becoming convinced it was an intentional release by the Chinese as part of the global commie Great Reset plan, and it was released at a time to cause maximum damage to possibility of Trump reelection (also got rid of Bernie Sanders and shitty old insider Biden into the Dem candidacy)

... I have no idea how a massive financial crash and lock up of the banking system affects bitcoin, probably negatively at first, but it may equally immediately go nutz too.

The Great Reset

IDK..

I am not especially for the old Biden.. But hard to see Trump win again.

Put a 5K$ gambling bet on BIDEN at 1.45. Will see  

Changed: Added source https://www.dietmareckell.com/

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Final Part III: Sea Cemeteries ^offtopic... / Abandoned military sites: Part I / Abandoned military sites: Part II

• Battleship Utah, Pearl Harbor. USA.

• The crash of a fighter jet in the coastal zone in 1947. USA.

• Twin-engine Douglas DC-3. The location is unknown.

• An old Canadian schooner that sank on the lake. Ontario in 1885.

• San Pascal was built in the USA from reinforced concrete in 1920, since 1933 it has been aground near Cuba.
  During the Cuban Revolution, San Pascal served as a prison for Che Guevara's army.

• In 2014, the large anti-submarine ship "Ochakov" was used as a barrier at the exit from the lake. Donuzlav (Crimea).

• Artillery cruiser of the Northern Fleet "Murmansk". Norway.

• Cala del contrabandista. Grecia.

No No No NO

It is rainy ending prices for power were

2-3 cents

now

4-6 cents

Thus miners turn gear off bigly.

If we have continued down turns of 5% the next two jumps then some other issue is happening.

why shocked...because of this many americans don't have passports that they have to show everywhere;
"your papers" type stuff.
logging around passport everywhere would have been annoying.