Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6888. (Read 26713039 times)

14000 AYH!!! Bitstamp

$14K!!

2019 highest point is broken now.

Party Time  

Good morning WO gang! A few seconds ago BTC improved the 2 year and now is going after $14K! Only 20 bucks to go

Edit. And it's done: $14K guys and gals!!!! Weeee!

There's a wall @ 12k euro.

Nomnomnomnomn lol

https://twitter.com/coenesqued/status/1322358597875978244

It could go sideways at $20k, but the odds are quite low, and I get a bit irritated fantasizing about scenarios in which the odds are low rather than attempting to focus on more likely scenarios.. sure we have to be prepared for anything but seems quite unrealistic to be focusing upon less likely scenarios.



Don't get me wrong.  There may be opportunities that surely present themselves that had not been present, and accordingly a damned compelling reason to cash out a decent amount or all of the BTC stash because of such presented opportunity.  So, I surely am NOT asserting that situations might not come about or there might not be ways to reframe the situation in which investing in something other than BTC appears to be the better conclusion.

But there could also be some problems if the conclusion is reached to pull the fuck you lever upon incomplete information and inadequate planning and the conclusion to pull the fuck you lever ends up bing wrong because of lack of preparedness and inadequate analysis of the situation.



10 or 20 years ago, $1 million might have been an adequate target, and sure $1million still might be an adequate target for some people, but it also seems that $1million is becoming less and less  likely to be adequate as a target.

I had suggested $2million as a better target - but even that seems b on shaky grounds when we hav members like Biodom suggesting that $6million might be the minimum fuck you status entry point (which I still consider to be a bit above average.. or too pie in the sky in terms of the vast majority of normies).

I have also incorporated some other safety measures into my own way of calculating fuck you status value, and that is to use the 208 week moving average BTC price, and surely my methodology includes an emphasis to continue to HODL bitcoin rather than converting to dollars, so I consider that the 208 week moving average would be a safe way to calculate whether fuck  you status has ben reached and also to provide a decent amount of assurance that the fuck you lever is not pulled too soon.  So currently the 208 week moving average is at about $6,800, and so that would require about 147 BTC.

So, yeah, concededly if you want to keep decent portions of your wealth in BTC, then I believe that you should be using the 208 week moving average to calculate the value of those BTC holdings.  Of course, some of us have quasi-liquid value that is in other assets, so we may well be combining various asset categories to verify whether we have reached our fuck you status amount.




I generally agree that it may be more accurate to presume that for anyone to really be getting close to confident fuck you status, they likely would have needed to be in bitcoin for at least one more cycle, but maybe even that is a bit presumptuous in terms of considering the extent that someone may even be getting close to having had been able to build a fuck you status stash of BTC... or combination of BTC and other investments... but sure the longer that someone has been in bitcoin and accumulating bitcoin, then we might develop some presumptions that they may have built a large enough stash to be able to start shaving off some profits, whether that is shaving large proportions or some may be transitioning into more of a mindset that I (and others) have been advocating in recent times which is figuring out ways in which large portions of the BTC stash might not need to be sold and still be able to carry out a kind of fuck you status exit (entry?  / transition).




I doubt that you can assert with any level of confidence inspiration that your predictions have been steady for any kind of meaningful amount of time, except perhaps your seemingly ongoing tendency to take where-ever we might be and to paint a pessimistic viewpoint on that.. and then to assign too high of odds to such pessimistic viewpoint.  So, I agree that it is not helpful for us to become too optimistic, but there can be problems with continuing to paint too pessimistic scenarios, too.

In the end, yeah, there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, but there is some validity to looking at how BTC prices have performed in the past, too.   We have ongoing facts on the ground that continue to help us to put credibility on the four year fractal models and to see what kinds of price dynamics happen in BTC.. and it dos not tend to stick around previous ATHs, and there are reasons for that... there is a kind of psychology that goes with BTC price movement, and psychology is helped to be backed up when we can witness certain kinds of events happening at the same time to show that buying pressure is continuing from a variety of angles (and you can choose to see them or not, or you can choose to hypothesize about the supposed smaller potato weak hands who may be selling their coins too soon.... the choice of what to see is yours, and I don't even believe that I am spinning any of this, I just continue to see you emphasizing a lot of glass half-full kinds of scenarios... and yeah, sure they might play out.. but I am not going to place a lot of weight into such unlikelihoods even if you believe them with all your heart... #nohomo....  ).

Honey Badger does not care, that's all I have to say.
Happy Birthday Bitcoin White-paper! We are here, having fun, thanks to you.

Don't drop the ball! Rockets are fueling to surpass previous ATH.














Oh and don't forget to breathe, it will all be over soon. In about 13 months

I am ONLY considering such...when I fire up the overhead electric 220v heater in the basement...this winter to putter about with stuf..so the miner is just to add a bit


more heat and not even crypto 'dust' but the 'illusion' of crypto dust and additional heat...if one is on..they

both can be on...till the thermostat kicks off at least the 220v overhead heater. I do know people that use their 220v miners to keep their dry

sauna 'mold' free? I am not in that 'exalted' camp.


I don't see any POW miner of any Algo favored coin...be it BTC/LTC or whatever ....being even in the 'realm' of possiblility for me at 8c kWh

till at the very best Fall 2021...and likely to stay a dream at 8c kWh even then.

 This is being optimistic, IMHO. I need an honest person, overseas, with an honest data hall, in China...er no not China...pesly USA tarrif, so say Malyasia at 2c kWh,

but I think a 'super-model' girlfriend ...might...be better odds...sigh..I miss POW mining...this DeFi coin stuff and staking and pos coins just has

me befuddled..in full noob mode....

Brad

Yes, this is what BTC is up against, so core DEVs better get a move on.

We largely agree, but just a few points...

1/2. I wouldn't want anyone to take my points as investment advise. "Invest only what you can afford to lose" is great for most people, and a safe(r) approach to investing. But sometimes one must take risks. That was the point I was trying to make, which I'm sure you're aware of. Risk is what distinguishes the smart from the lucky. You can play the lottery for $2 and win millions risk-free, but that doesn't mean you're any smarter that the average person—you just got lucky. For traditional investments, that motto is very good advice. But here we have something that has the potential to change everything. In such cases, and when one truly recognizes said potential, one may consider deviating from that rule and take a little (or a lot) more risk. History has shown that, in the case of Bitcoin, that was a smart (and not lucky) move.

3. About my points (9) and (10), I didn't mean to imply that I care about what others do, or want to preach to others how they should use their coins, or their fiat, or whatever. Not at all. I'm merely observing what is happening, as your small-letter text correctly states. This is how the world works. In the beginning of the Bitcoin era, maybe up to triple-digit prices, there were lots of small players owning hundreds or even thousands of BTC (we all remember the pizza story). As we move on to the present, we see a shift of coins to big players with the cash to be able to do it. And I'm not only talking about newly minted coins. Many of the coins that are going to end up in the hands of big players are "old" coins. They are (and will be) yours and mine. Many small players (that's us) will eventually sell their coins way too early for different reasons. This is understandable. We all want to enjoy life and do things we couldn't do before. Lambos, hookers, blow and all. So, I conjecture that many of the small players (that's us) will slowly become later versions of Laszlo Hanyecz, selling our precious coins for fiat peanuts, while the smart guys in the room buy them from us. I'm sure those two pizzas tasted good. And the Lambos, hookers and blow will feel great...

Just observing... Not criticizing...

It seems to me that a few points are worth noting, if we are attempting to account for 2013 in regards to what might happen.

I will concede to you that there is more than one way that an exponential curve could play out in the four year fractal and still largely be within free market parameters of expectations.  Accordingly, 2013 does represent a double top kind of model, and 2017 represents a single top kind of model.

So, sure, it is possible that we could end up having a 2020/21/22/23 run up that has more than one top, and the various corrections during the process of getting to the ultimate blow off top might cause a shakening of a lot of weak hands along the way.  So surely there could be various ways in which HODLers sell way too many coins too soon, and actually, if you think about the matter, more deeply, these kinds of tactics might be the better ways that the status quo rich may be able to lessen (even if they cannot completely prevent) some of the impacts of one of the likely largest transfers of wealth that the world has ever seen.  

There could be all kinds of tragedies along the way in which some HODLers are tricked into selling way too many coins too soon... and if you are 50, 60, 70 or 80 years old, you might not give as many shits about any of those matters (except to the extent that you might have been planning to pass some of your wealth to your descendants) because your own timeline is NOT long enough, and you are still able to figure out ways to considerably profit from however you play your bitcoin cards.  So of course, the more years that you have, the more that you would likely want to have more power in whatever ways that you choose to allocate your wealth for the longer time-frame of what you expect your life to be or the estate (legacy) that you might want to plan to pass down to your heirs.

So, in some sense, I may be kind of agreeing with you about various ways that weak hands could be shaken from some or all of their coins - but I still do NOT buy into any story that you might be wanting to outline that attempts to ascribe power to the weak hands bringing down the market or stories that they BTC price is failing to go up because too many weak hands are ready, willing and able sell their coins.

Sure, there is always a dynamic in which peeps with wealth (sometimes referred to as bearwhales) are going to want to employ resources to keep BTC prices down as low as they can and for as long as they can, but still some of the dynamics of how much they are able to keep the price down or to keep it down may also be limited - including that we still remain in relatively early stages of adoption and some of the other peeps with money (and even regular joe blow public, retail) are going to continue to contribute to ongoing upward price pressures on lil fiend, even if some folks, that you seem to be relating to, Searing, are nervous, valuing their wealth in lockability dollars, but they are still likely to be overwhelmed by ongoing adoption rather than really causing inabilities for BTC prices to significantly rise beyond previous all time highs.

As I already mentioned, similar kinds of stories were told in 2015/2016 regarding how so many folks were supposedly going to be selling around $1k blah blah blah... and how it took so much more capital to push BTC prices above $1k as compared to how much capital it had taken to push BTC prices above $100 blah blah blah...

nonsense...

We continue to witness entrances of new players into bitcoin who are going to help to contribute to likely inevitable  and ongoing upwards BTC price pressures, evn if we are getting into BTC prices that currently seem too difficult to sustain.. whether referring to $25k prices or $100k prices or even higher prices such as $500k or $1 million that may well end up being way more sustainable than previously thunk.  




On a personal level you can do what you like.

Personally, I have never suggested completely HOLDING everything through BTC price appreciation periods, but instead shaving some off along the way, and how much to shave off should be contemplated by projecting out scenarios such as the BTC price rising very quickly and/or the BTC price rising slowly and going through interim painstaking correction cycles - including longer 2-3 year correction cycles that cause some peeps to regret NOT having had sold more BTC in the arena of blow of top prices.  I personally believe that those of us who have been through previous BTC cycles and even including peeps who may not have been through previous cycles but have enough imagination when they look at previous charts, we have enough information to be able extrapolate various scenarios, even extreme scenarios and attempt to pee pare our lil selfies for those various extreme scenarios.. and having had gone through a few of these kinds of outrageous extreme scenarios, many of us have come to realize both that it can seem surreal as fuck to actually be going through an extreme scenario that you had projected as NOT very likely, while at the same time, if a relatively small number of us had a "kind of workable" plan in place, then we end up feeling much better for having had made such a plan and we even feel better if we make various tweaks to the plan along the way because the plan put us in a way better position than what we would have been in, if we had not created such a plan and had not tried to largely follow such plan.

Of course, each of us also have our own limitations in creativity in terms of how much we are really able to extrapolate what we are going to do under various scenarios and we might well even end up gravitating towards scenarios that end up NOT playing out.. and then we feel that we have not prepared enough.. so I am NOT even suggesting that everyone is going to be able to really plan for all of the scenarios.. even though there may be ways that anyone could do better at least outlining some extreme scenarios so they are not totally caught off guard by selling too much too soon or the employment of other gambling techniques that may not feel too good if they end up NOT playing out very well... I am not saying to use margin.. even though some folks become so confident that they end up using margin to screw their own selfies in situations where they did not need to be screwed.. why get greedy when bitcoin already has asymmetric probabilities sitting right in front of us.. (I am surely NOT suggesting that you, Searing, are someone who is inclined to employ margin even though you may be someone who might still end up having regrets because of lack of adequately pee paring for certain scenarios that are outside of your expectations).

PS...
By the way, I have heard some fairly prominent bitcoin folks assert that people should consider selling all or large portions of their BTC holdings if it would result in "life changing" impacts upon them... And, personally, I believe this "life changing impacts" concept would likely cause too many BTC HODLers to employ inadequately contemplated actions that involve selling too much bitcoins too soon... It is not a good parameter, especially if they are failing to figure out some kind of balance for what they might be doing with the money, whether it is buying real estate, investing in a business, investing in education of oneself, buying PMs, getting into equities, buying an annuity, keeping more money in fiat, or buying some consumer goods.  Of course, not all uses of money are equal, and frequently when we are young, we need to put our capital to work in various and if we are ONLY invested in bitcoin, it may well be prudent to diversify a bit more outwardly into other assets, even if many of them might NOT hold their value too well or be too much dependent upon fiat values or the lack of value that is given to so much debt being out there in circulation in our current society... Still some investments are better than others, and I suppose in the end, I had largely created this particular PS because I wanted to quibble with the vague concept of "life changing impacts" because it remains an inadequate concept on its own, without at least attempting to explore whether you might be allocating away from bitcoin because of needs to invest in yourself, in investment goods or in consumption goods.. good to determine what you are investing in and also analyzing other particular circumstances that are pertinent to your situation including cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills abilities to plan learn along the way and to tweak your strategies along the way including reallocating and whether and the extent that you trade at all.

              
Today, 12 years ago
Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper

- Fri Oct 31 14:10:00 EDT 2008 Bitcoin A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html
- Here in several languages:
https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-paper

Hi WO gang,

Have a beautiful weekend and enjoy the bull run of BTC.

Today, I come back with another analysis, this time for Bitcoin block size and transaction fee (in satoshi/ kB or USD). Enjoy!


Updates:

most around here dont give 2 sats for meta thankfully..  as far as your question goes, rules seem to be kept at a minimum here..again thankfully

afaik not being a dick to others seems to be the most prevalent

you can re all you want.. I dont think anybody cares

 

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happy all hollows eve!


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+1 WOsMerit


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+1 WOsMerit





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#dyor
1h

#stronghands

So I should fire up a miner to help this logjam?