Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 6884. (Read 26713167 times)

Dedicated to all the bears worldwide:


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Monsoon miners off,
highland price discovery,
fees game theory.

#haiku

Damn we were so close for ATH monthly close last night. Whatever, second place for highest monthly close is also not bad  .

I think we are very close to a huge step forward for crypto market.

You come off as trolling with that question.

I doubt that there are too many of us who actually believe in an imminency that BTC becoming the world reserve currency, or whatever other achievements would need to be reached in order to meet "eats the world" status.  That's just pie in the sky, and you seem to be way the fuck more conservative than me in terms of the imminency of such a status so I don't know why you would suggest that as any kind of reasonable approach to BTC - especially for someone like me who has already proclaimed that I am approaching such a status that I would likely want to liquidate more of my BTC stash rather than to hold it or to continue to accumulate it.

Sure, if someone has some kind of longer time frame (maybe someone in their 20s or 30s) then maybe the ongoing accumulation of BTC might cause them to engage in tactics of never selling BTC so they could more reasonably entertain speculation that by the time that they are ready to start liquidating that bitcoin may have reached such world reserve (eat the world) status - but even something like that would likely be at least 20 years into the future and maybe more realistically 50 years - even though at the same time we can also appreciate that the "suddenly" part of "gradually then suddenly" could end up playing out in a sooner surprise timeframe - of 5 or 10 years.... but nonetheless, still would be ridiculous to be banking on some kind of scenario that might not happen rather than a scenarios that are more likely...

Do you even understand the use of the 208 week moving average as a thought about planning bitcoin cashing out / valuation strategies.  It is conservative and it is based on what is and being able to act upon "what is" rather than "what might be."   Yeah, I talk about what might happen in bitcoin, but my financials have ongoingly been tied to where I am at rather than pie in the sky expectations... that is another reason that my previous hopiums (when I first got into bitcoin in 2013 and thereafter) about BTC price performance was a kind of hopium that bitcoin would be able to at least equal the performance of my traditional investments and average 6% per year of price appreciation.. and any BTC price performance that goes beyond averaging 6% per year would be viewed as icing on the cake (I still have some of that thinking in my head, even though I believe that I can kind of bank on higher floors because those price moves have already happened in BTC** which thereby allowed me to move over to the 208-week moving average in terms of thinking about my own budgeting, etc etc etc.)

Edited earlier post to add in this note:

** By the way, even if I were to estimate my cost per BTC in a very generous way to have been in the $1,000 per BTC price territory, currently my BTC price performance is way beyond those minimum expectations of 6% per year, which through my quick calculation would have current put BTC prices at about  $1,504 per BTC... So, yeah, I have quite a cushion, and at current BTC prices, my average per year is currently a bit above 45% per year.  So, really there is quite a cushion See two comparisons, below:

              6%/yr     45%/yr
2013      $1,000      $1,000
2014      $1,060      $1,450
2015      $1,124      $2,103
2016      $1,191      $3,049
2017      $1,262      $4,421
2018      $1,338      $6,410
2019      $1,419      $9,294
2020      $1,504      $13,476

I am NOT proclaiming that I can even expect continued returns of 45% per year (that might be unrealistic to expect such, even though it is possible for such a thing to happen), and my investment could revert to much lower average returns per year levels, including averaging something like 6% here on out, and I have have NO problema with that kind of reduced performance playing out.. especially since I already am experiencing a large profit cushion from my original BTC performance expectations.  

So, again, why?  Why change over into some kind of nonsense pie in the sky speculation when it is absolutely not necessary for me to already largely be in a kind of "fuck you" status without having to incorporate such pie in the sky framings (bitcoin reserve currency status) that may or may not happen in my lifetime?


I have been sticking with my system of selling somewhere under 1% of the value of my BTC stash for every 10% BTC price rise (and I had done a recent calculation that shows it to be even smaller than that), but it is already a system that I am comfortable with.. been doing since $250.. and it does not seem to be any kind of problem... so why fix it if it is not broken?  You want me to stop doing all of this and wait until $70k or something like that?  For me, it is not necessary.. I can still sell decent amounts of my BTC stash if we reach $70k, if I so choose.. I already have a lot of it projected out.. I have BTC sell orders that currently go up to $36k, and I can easily add more sell orders within incrementalism or lump sum.... and I largely already have projected out those numbers, and either way I am rich as fuck.. and already having trouble spending all of my money.. so not really sure why I need to structure some kind of further delayed gratification or some plan that fits your ideas rather than my own.



That's great.. and maybe it will work for you.  I am glad that you are accounting for your own situation, and especially if you are saying that you need a minimum of $6 million to feel comfortable with fuck you status and I am saying that $2 million is good enough.. especially if accounting for 208 week moving average...  .. but either way there are still needs to tailor whatever approach to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan, tweak and reallocate from time to time as needed including considering whether to trade and how.


I am not sure.  How any of us might evaluate would be accounting for a variety of the assets - not only bitcoin, but if we feel that we need $6,666 per month (which is the $2million principle) to feel comfortable or we feel that we need $18k per month (which is the nearly $6 million in principle), we have to look at all of our investments and to se what kinds of cashflow we can generate from those other investments.

Of course, if we only have one kind of asset (or two BTC and dollars), then the calculations are going to be easier, but there still might be other assets and determinations regarding how much cashflow can be generated from various assets.  Let's say, for example, you have a goal of the $6,666 per month, and let's say that you have $500k that is in a 401k.  Depending on your age, you may or may not be eligible to start dipping into such 401k funds, so in that sense you have to generate your income from other assets.  Apartments might generate income, but if you merely own houses or other forms of real estate that you are using in various ways, you might not b generating income from that or maybe if you are generating some income from such properties, you might fold that income back into the property expenses, but overall property would not be a very liquid asset that you would use to figure out your ability to generate cashflow from it.. even if it could be a kind of emergency value that exists out there that could be liquidated in the future, if needed.



At least BTC prices are going up.. so that should be able to take away some personal pressures, I would hope, unless you had been too busy betting on down, not adequately preparing for UP, overly anticipating flat or things like that.  

Some of your earlier bearish talk could actually have been indications that you might not have been adequately preparing for UP... but whatever, that's on you, ultimately in terms of what balance any of us may have reached in recent times in terms of both preparing for up and preparing for down at the same time... can definitely be a challenge and a dilemma.  

There had been times that I was running out of cash to buy some of the dips, so there were times in which I felt that I did not have enough cash in my reserves in order to take advantage of down or MOAR down, were it to happen.  Even now, I have something like 97% bitcoin and 3% cash (in the funds that are dedicated to BTC).. which, to me, seems to be a bit overly-weighted in BTC.. so I don't have any personal reservations to skim off some additional cash from my BTC here and there along the way.. because on an ongoing basis - even since 2015, I have largely been over invested in BTC.. but I have systems in place in which I have made myself comfortable to deal with whichever way the BTC price happens to go (seemingly UP.. and that's certainly fine with me, too).

Edited above to add price performance analysis note:

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On Halloween night everything is photoshop

Good morning WO

Cool, but maybe consider a philosophy of keeping bitcoin until bitcoin 'eats the world', then simpy use it.
Selling btc for fiat seems suboptimal right now.
My strategy now is to maximize bitcoin holdings, exactly a la Saylor, while paying little attention to the accumulation of anything else (as a final goal).
Other tools, such as fiat stock gains, altcoin gains (bought always via fiat) are there to increase btc, while your ultimate goal seems to increase fiat holdings (via bitcoin).
Am I wrong?
...yes, a little bored (and overworked), I concede there.

Wouldn't a more important question be about whether we are able to retire earlier than what we would have otherwise?

There is a bit of a factor of age that does allow less enjoyment - and at the same time if you are in your 30s or 40s, it might be difficult to pull any kind of early retirement without having greater cushion - some folks who are getting into their 60s might become eligible to draw into supplemental sources of income, too... so there are all of those angles.


Hm?  you are itching for a fight, aren't you?     (maybe you are getting a little bored with so much BTC UPpity in recent months?  Gosh zooming out a bit.. it is starting to almost look like a straight line up since March 21, 2020... even though I do remember having a few decent sized corrections in there and even flats.. but NOT really feeling like much of any flat or down correction when looking at that period.. a little here and there, but geez)       

Seems like I posted on this topic, previously.... and there are surely a lot of ways to both measure your wealth and to talk about your wealth and your various allocation and reallocation strategies.

It seems that my talking about my tactics does cause me to reframe my way of thinking about these matters from time to time... take, for example, my recent adoption of the 200-week moving average as a way of measuring downside volatility likelihood.  I likely adopted that within the past 6-9 months, and then my recent conversion from using the 200-week moving average to using the 208-week moving average was only accomplished in the past month or so.

We are NOT all going to frame these kinds of measuring matters in the same way, and hopefully we are able to learn from one another... I do, however, believe that it is not good to be playing with slippery slope topics of talking up the dabbling in shitcoins in this thread - even if there are reasonable ways to cause such shitcoinery to be profitable.. it is just bad taste and disrespectful to the topic of this thread.. Sure, you can push it and probably no one is going to do anything about it, except for call you a shitcoiner.. but hey.. you can do what you want.. you been around these parts for long enough.. and you have not been shy about expressing your opinions on a regular basis.. and probably I agree with you quite a large bit of the time... not that I hav any kind of exact calculation for that but it is likely a bit over 50% of  the time.. Hate to admit it.... go figure?  

I think that a bitcoiner who keeps measuring success in $$ received once bitcoin is sold is a "shitcoiner" too by your own definition.
ha ha

I cannot lure anyone into anything, just sharing...to each his own.
I think you know this practice (of sharing) quite well.

You are implying something that is not there.
First off, he is not hoarding any blocks and second, he already had that 425mil cash in the company and at least 170 mil of his own, so gains are not that impressive yet.
If btc goes to 10mil and he would have 175 bil in btc and his company another 380 bil in btc, MSTR would still be smaller than APPL, FB, MSFT, GOOG and a few other companies.
Right now he does sound a bit strict, as a recent convert would sound. Perhaps, he would mellow a bit later, but I am totally fine so far even with a current situation.
I just hope that when btc drops 40%, he would not start running around telling everyone what kind of 'shit' it is (in his new-new opinion).
He strikes me as a person of 'extremes'-black and white, but perhaps, this helped him to make a lot of money in the last 8-10 years when he claims to invest a lot into FB, GOOGL, AAPL and AMZN because it occurred to him that these companies would disrupt each and every category they participate in.

you are coming off as overly pessimistic of the likely direction of fees, Biodom, and you are seemingly bitter about rich peeps, such as Saylor coming into bitcoin as a newbie (and maybe Saylor is revered too much, too, from your perspective?) and hoarding block space (hoarding a sizeable stake in bitcoin without serving time or suffering like many of us long term HODLers)..


Could be, but I am sticking with my original observation.  


Your choice to be a shitcoiner.. and your choice to want to lure others into such practices through posts within this here thread.       

It's good to mine right now although probably much less profitable than in late 2017 as @philipma1957 has shown.
With fees being above 300 sat/byte and China shutting their 'rain miners' down you are basically buying bitcoin at a nice discount or simply buying bitcoin slowly it you choose to pay fiat for electricity.

Just a PSA.  I think it is apropos.

If you have balances of BTC anywhere other than addresses derived from private keys you hold now might be a very good time to drop those coins into your self custody. (or arguably next week if you want to wait for the difficulty adjustment to kick in)  Of course we are the choir as far as the hymn "NYK-NYC".  But I know many of us are traders, or have the random balance here or there...

Here is why:

1.  Some third parties are still paying the network fees for you.  Notably CashApp.  This is actually the only place I hold a little BTC that is not in my control.  That's where I buy dips.  And it's not so much that I am super worried.  But I pulled my daily limit off today and will continue till it's drained.  It's nice to see they are batching.  And man.. in my transaction there were over 50 payments made.  They are doing some REAL business it seems.

2.  The more I think about the Iran news the more it makes me think I just want to tie up all the loose ends like that.  That news is going to do all kinds of crazy stuff.  It is arguably the beginning of Central Bank FOMO.  Just that alone means you might want to get your house in order, so to speak.  As the network could be headed towards becoming fairly expensive to transact on.

And obviously there is also the possibility that western governments decide to take extreme actions.  I know it's paranoid, but seriously... what is left to surprise us anymore?  It's probably a tiny chance, but if your government orders exchanges to freeze funds etc, or even seize balances...

Also if you are running a lightning node...  Now (or next week?) would be the time to think about cleaning up and small money in little dead end channels with small balances, Or channels that seem to be with an unreliable peer.  Depending on chain fees you could effectively lose sats tied up in crummy channels...

Anyway. some food for thought.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUhRKVIjJtw

Sheik Yerbouti?

Who knows?

#dyor

before closing monthly chart with some thoughts




after close




daily chart



perspective


#stronghands


Happy Halloween!

+1 WOsMerit

a well spoken man trying to answer some hard questions   had a good vibe i thought..will be watching more closely

the mention of a strategic view point by state actors in the cryptospace perked my ears up

it was all interesting..great interview

Shake Shake Shake....  Shake Shake Shake...

Shakin' the tree, but no coins falling out.  What comes next?

I'll let smarter guys than me Mull on this.

Weird selloff with no volume = weird selloff with no volume.

Very kookoo...