I doubt that it is in anyone's interest (especially BTC HODLers) to really be asking for more societal drama in order for king daddy bitcoin to prosper..
Bitcoin would likely be much better served by fewer Armageddon-wannabe scenarios.
Bitcoiners will be able to see what transpires in 14 13 mo, and if btc is below 55K (the lowest prediction value), then the model is invalidated and there are no other models with any predictive value whatsoever.
I like the fact that, finally, S2F is being harshly criticized because, in my mind, it is making the predictive values more likely to be achieved, paradoxically.
That seems to be a bit of a strange claim about the model being supposedly broken if the BTC price is below $55k by the end of next year...
We will see, Biodom, but your claim seems to be a bit strong and wishful on your behalf, Biodom.. I mean in terms of you wanting to proclaim that the model is either worth very little or not worth anything.. and it is as if you are just rooting on an ongoing basis that the model is not true... ...
for what reason, it is difficult to know for sure..
Seems to me that you are just overly bothered by the model and you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways to discount the model and suggest that it adds little to no value to our thinking about BTC price dynamics, no?
Also, it seems to me that BTC prices could be manipulated down for 13-14 months or even extending 2 years from now or longer .. in order to cause the stock to flow model to appear to be broken.. and so what would that ongoing and persistent manipulation accomplish exactly, if it were to happen?
Seems to me that such ongoing downward manipulation could cause an explosive BTC price move later on down the road, or maybe such ongoing downward manipulation would cause a shifting of the trendline of the model to get pushed downward within the model.. so I am not clear why you believe that such need to potentially tweak the model would necessarily cause the model to be broken or invalid.. because the model is likely NOT guaranteeing as much as you seem to be wanting to argue that such model guarantees.