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I have found a few daily diff drops like this can act as a price drag. So if these downward block days stretch out for 3-5 days there will be downward price pressure.
I have found a few daily diff drops like this can act as a price drag. So if these downward block days stretch out for 3-5 days there will be downward price pressure.
The hashrate drops (supposedly because of the current floods in China miners need to temporarily stop operation), not the difficulty (which gets adjusted once every 2016 blocks or ~2 weeks).
If the difficulty remains the same, but the hashrate drops, the miners still mining get more bitcoin per hash. Which means they have to sell less bitcoin to pay for electricity. So I am not sure why a sudden drop in hashrate would cause downward price pressure, would expect the opposite.
I am sorry my post was not clear enough for you to understand.
I will attempt to be more clear this time.
I have studied difficulty for more then five years.
I have written thousands of posts on it.
I have given away more then 10 btc in difficulty prediction contests.
When I talk about decreasing difficulty dragging price down.
I am talking about the next jump.
when I read v8s info on the flooding the future jump was based on us being 69 blocks ahead of pace.
we are now 32-33 blocks ahead. so we are down 37-38 blocks since v8’s post.
I have a ton of observational data that shows mid 2016 period diff drops tend to drag price a bit.
basically we did drop price so it is following a familiar pattern.
We did three days dropping from 69 to 32 blocks ahead.
the future diff prediction is now lower.
Current difficulty is never what I refer to as I only look to predict the next one or two jumps of the diff.
It makes a lot of mining farm decisions easier to do.
I can use 300kwatts an hour before I cap out. I use 130-160kwatts an hour and clocking the future diff is far easier then clocking future price.
You would not be expected to understand me when I talk about diff. you would simply say dude the diff did not change wtf do you mean.
Lastly my theory as to why a mid drop like this drags price is as follows.
First 7 days 154 blocks a day = 70 blocks ahead.
Last 3 days 132 blocks a day = 36 blocks behind. net 34 blocks off.
Floods in China if a few big boys had to shut down they could be 66 blocks lost
as 154-132 = 22 x 3 = 66 blocks.
This may force them do usually large coin sales.
