^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):
FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).
Who is calling the kettle black?
I have no problem with the idea of having an extra tax cushion, but you are still not getting to the essential question regarding any kind of BTC valuation plan that presumes mostly holding the BTC rather than selling it all.
We are not selling all of our BTC, even though we are using our BTC to figure out when we reach entry-level fuck you status.
Sure another thing is that we likely have other assets, but if the only thing that we have is bitcoin and cash then surely we can add in some extra for taxes or other expenses, but if we might be considering withdrawing from $2million at the traditional rates of 4% per year which would be $6,666 per month, then yeah we would have to figure out our tax consequences in the event that might be gross rather than net withdrawal.. I think that many of my presumptions is that we are referring to gross rather than net... but I also think that if you are using 4% as your withdrawal rate then you are likely in a very conservative withdrawal mode and either your BTC can grow a lot more or you could actually withdraw way more than your what you perceive to be your budget since you would only be withdrawing 4%, but the dollar value is much more, even right now it would be close to $11k per month rather than $6,666, since the BTC spot price is 63% above the 200-WMA (using 64 BTC as the current default entry-level fuck you status).
You can see it your lil selfie
right here by plugging in the numbers.
If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for).
You are not following.
You are using spot price rather than 200-WMA, like me
And alternatively, you are not using AlcoHoDL's 5x spot price system.. which seems to currently be right around 145 BTC based on the last ATH price of $69k and using $10million as entry-level fuck you status.
Neither of us were suggesting to use BTC spot price to figure out entry-level fuck you status or even to be planning to sell very large portions of our cornz.. as you seem to be suggesting to cash it all out. and then what? suffer with $2million dollars... who the fuck got into bitcoin in order to put it all into dollars? Yeah, sure there are guys out there who are wanting to do that, but that's not what either AlcoHoDL or I had been getting at..and maybe that's why it is seeming to be overly complicated from your spot price focused perspective.
Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).
I am not sure what you are getting at, but yeah selling 81 BTC would get you right around $4.15 million in dollars (gross before taxes), but who is wanting to do that? even if any of us were to have 81 BTC.
Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
I am not sure how looking at spot fixes anything, especially if we are not cashing out of our BTC from here. But, hey do what you like.
The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake
.
Of course we sell at spot, and so that could be put in our budget if we might aim for selling a certain amount of bitcoin at certain prices, and that may well be a different strategy to pull out some BTC at various prices versus if we were going to do it in a regular and sustainable way, and I am not even saying that one is better than the other, but they have differing frameworks in terms of how to treat your holdings.
If we were going to do the lump sum sale, then yeah, we could do that as a kind of raking technique (something
like this) rather than a monthly way of thinking about BTC withdrawals.
[edited out]
In some sense, all our efforts to predict Bitcoin's value and future status could be moot,
Well one thing could be deciding when to pull the fuck you lever..
And, then the other thing is continuing to make it work while you are in it, and I would hope that we have assets or income sources other than BTC, but that could be part of the reason that we might want to have something like $10 million to serve as our entry-level fuck you status rather than $2 million, even though we might consider $2 million as enough to maintain our standard of living....
Anyone is going to have this as a bit of a dilemma.. because no one is really going to want to end up having to go back to work because he pulled the fuck you status too soon, and then if he is out of work for a few years, he might have trouble getting back into his previous field.. without taking a large pay cut or having to endure a lot more training or whatever.
when we consider the possibility of Bitcoin eventually dominating the entire world monetary system, thus confirming the "0.21 BTC is enough" YouTube video recommendations, which used to be "2.1 BTC is enough", or "21 BTC is enough", a.k.a. One in a Million, if you go way back. Notice how the "sufficient" BTC amount is divided by 10 (an order of magnitude) as we move into the future.
As many WOers would say: 1 BTC = 1 BTC. Just make sure you own some.
Of course, we know that the number of BTC required to reach fuck you status has been ongoingly dropping, and there is nothing really indicating that the trend is going to stop.. so if we have enough of a cushion then we should be good... but at the same time in terms of this thread, there are going to be guys working up to the levels in which they measure their entrance to fuck you status.. and so the same questions regarding how many is enough.. and even though I am saying that 64 is enough right now for the default entry level fuck you status, it is going to take a few years before 21 is going to be enough... right around late 2028, the way it is looking from the fuck you status chart.. that is also very much an estimate that may or may not be accurate.. but we see the trend, I think that there is some reason to have some kind of quasi- (or semi- as you say).. reliance on some of these kinds of formulas, absent some on the ground changes in facts and/or theory that would end up changing our wannabe sorcerer attempts at predictions.
[edited out]
Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount.
Just saying...
I also think that once you get to the amount, you may well be able to structure it so that it is still growing with inflation, as long as you have a solid cushion and/or plan which it seems that both you (AlcoHoDL) and I have attempted to account for ongoing BTC volatility so our entry level fuck you status numbers have a lot of cushion and are likely to continue to grow our pots in order to account for worldly uncertainties... and sometimes we might even figure out that we are too conservative, but that's o.k. as long as we don't end up dying with too much of our wealth (more than we want to have at that point).
