Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 743. (Read 26469542 times)
February 25, 2024, 12:12:18 PM
February 25, 2024, 12:03:25 PM
February 25, 2024, 12:02:07 PM
Interrupting Chartbuddy public service.
Observing 51,635@Stamp
Observing Powder as well
Observing 51,635@Stamp
Observing Powder as well
It almost looks like someone sprayed blue antifreeze on the snow or something.
February 25, 2024, 11:25:07 AM
Halving in 51 days, little over 7 weeks. 
Stop your flatlining sideways, buddy.
Nothing in the cinema that interests me.... girl bosses have destroyed cinema.
Dune doesn't interest me, didn't like the first one at all. But glad there is something for some people next week.
Back to gaming and old stuff till the summer I guess...
Stop your flatlining sideways, buddy.
Nothing in the cinema that interests me.... girl bosses have destroyed cinema.
Dune doesn't interest me, didn't like the first one at all. But glad there is something for some people next week.
Back to gaming and old stuff till the summer I guess...
February 25, 2024, 11:01:19 AM
February 25, 2024, 10:03:27 AM
February 25, 2024, 09:01:16 AM
February 25, 2024, 08:36:59 AM
📌Germany’s parliament
As usual, they are all very busy at work.
Absolutely swamped.
The dying men on the frontline in Ukraine must be delighted to know that the European politicians egging things on work so incredibly hard every day.
As mentioned above, that looks like a Mickey Mouse chamber, but still.. the point stands.
"After our coffee break, let's fund another research project into Bitcoin. The conclusion must read it is terrible. Go.... Ah there's the coffee. How is Zelensky doing btw. Sorry, what, another coffee. Ah time to go home. I'll speak to you tomorrow. Oh actually in a couple of days. I have a few days off. Actually I'll be back in a few weeks, maybe."
February 25, 2024, 08:01:19 AM
February 25, 2024, 07:36:53 AM
Interrupting Chartbuddy public service.
Observing 51,635@Stamp
Observing Powder as well
Observing 51,635@Stamp
Observing Powder as well
February 25, 2024, 07:33:51 AM
📌Germany’s parliament
* OutOfMemory thinking about dozens of german ministers standing in line at the nearest Bitcoin ATM 
That somehow doesn't look like the Bundestag to me rather some local parliament, nonetheless your statement suggests the folks there having the smartness to understand BTC.
I doubt that people who think a 360° turn somewhat changes your direction or that there countries hundredthousands of miles away will really understand the basic concept of BTC. Not to mention the economics minister and his unicorn ideas of insolvency...
February 25, 2024, 07:03:23 AM
February 25, 2024, 06:01:14 AM
February 25, 2024, 05:03:25 AM
February 25, 2024, 04:57:13 AM
📌Germany’s parliament
* OutOfMemory thinking about dozens of german ministers standing in line at the nearest Bitcoin ATM
February 25, 2024, 04:01:14 AM
February 25, 2024, 03:54:58 AM
.
February 25, 2024, 03:49:09 AM
Nice, gradual rise towards $52k I see. 15-min chart looks beautiful.
Weather is brilliant, almost like summer.
Going out to enjoy a few km of running.
I hope I see green when I'm back.
Weather is brilliant, almost like summer.
Going out to enjoy a few km of running.
I hope I see green when I'm back.
February 25, 2024, 03:48:34 AM
^ You guys over complicate things.
A simpler math (for US only):
FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).
If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).
Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake.
A simpler math (for US only):
FU status=$2mil in cash. Long term cap gains are 23.8 % in US, maximum, so you would need to produce about $2.56 mil in profit from a sale (I tried to account for 0-89.25K 0% tax, 89.25-250K 15% tax no NIIT, 250K-553.8K 15% tax+3.8% NIIT and above 553.8K-20% tax+3.8% NIIT; all for married, filed jointly).
If, for an argument's sake, your cost is very low, then you'll need about 50 BTC to sell in order to achieve the FU status in about an hour using bitcoin alone (with taxes all accounted for). Adjust 50btc to a higher number if your cost is much higher, like above 5K (every 5K increase in your cost= about 10% increase in the number over 50BTC to achieve bitcoin- only fu status; example-if your cost was 20K, then you'll "need" to sell about 81 btc right now to almost insta-achieve fu status by bitcoin alone).
Just look at the spot, where you can sell right now, not some fancy 200WMA.
The spot is where you would be selling in case of a need to cash out to achieve fu or to buy something substantial, like a nice house, a small ranch or a lake
.Well, each one is different. In the end, whatever suits each one of us is the best strategy.
As for selling, are you sure you want to park $2M of fiat in a bank account in one sell? Don't you want to shave off small amounts from your stash as and when required?
A "buy when you can, sell when you must" approach.
Unless you intend to buy something big, like a million-dollar house, etc. In that case, are $2M enough for f.u. status for you? This is not meant to be a "per year" amount, but a "lifetime" amount.
Just saying...
February 25, 2024, 03:25:07 AM
[...]
It makes some sense, but it still remains troubling for this here cat.
Thanks for your comments (edited out for brevity, post header links above for details). I know that my approach is "non-standard" and I can assure you that I'm not blindly applying it without looking into the context of the current Bitcoin moves and developments. This is just a fun experiment for me, to see how things play out, based on different metrics that we devise and compare with. As I've stated numerous times, the 200 WMA is my favorite indicator as far as the overall trend is concerned, and will likely continue to be, unless some extreme event happens, which completely invalidates the status quo (a.k.a. Bitcoin cycle periodicity and the happenings within each period). The new ETF players, increased adoption and regulation, as well as the reduced production or new coins due to the halvings, could affect said periodicity and what it entails, in semi-unforeseeable ways.
IOW, there's no such thing as a Crystal BallTM, but there is math & science (hence the "semi-" above).
Re. the 2017 cycle peak, my f.u. status requirement was 509 BTC vs. 1658 BTC (using 200 WMA), which does break my conservative claim, and this can also be deduced by considering the difference between spot peak and 200 WMA, which was around 16x at that time (compare this with my approach's fixed 5x cushion). The main difference is that my 5x cushion stays fixed, whereas the difference between spot peak and 200 WMA tends to get reduced after each cycle, thus reducing the cushion and making my approach more conservative as we go into the future.
As for f.u. status, many of us have achieved it, or not, depending on the chosen metric, as well as country of residence, desired standard of living, LHB wants/needs, etc. The more conservative the metric (even if it is non-standard, inaccurate, or even looney, as you put it), the more secure one's f.u. status becomes. I wouldn't want to have my standard of living (assuming it is, or will soon be, mostly Bitcoin-dependent) be based on some borderline f.u. status predictor, which could fail whenever Warren Buffett decides to say something wise of whenever some curly-haired, crazy CEO decides to go Bernie Madoff on his customers. Not saying the 200 WMA is a borderline f.u. status predictor, just talking generally here.
In some sense, all our efforts to predict Bitcoin's value and future status could be moot, when we consider the possibility of Bitcoin eventually dominating the entire world monetary system, thus confirming the "0.21 BTC is enough" YouTube video recommendations, which used to be "2.1 BTC is enough", or "21 BTC is enough", a.k.a. One in a Million, if you go way back. Notice how the "sufficient" BTC amount is divided by 10 (an order of magnitude) as we move into the future.
As many WOers would say: 1 BTC = 1 BTC. Just make sure you own some.
Jump to: