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I forgot your story, AlcoHoDL, are you saying that you were one of those could have been earlier adopters, but you did not rise yourself to the level of action which would likely mean figuring out some kind of reasonable budget to get "in" at some earlier date? When are we talking? and why did you NOT act? would have it made a difference? I had some asset that I had invested into in early October 2013 and I would have had that money available for bitcoin, but I will say that I did withdraw all of that money that I had invested in that October 2013 asset and I invested into bitcoin between about October and December 2014 which I believe largely played out better for me.
What is your "could have," "would have," "should have," and would have it made a difference in terms of what you did, your resulting financial status or even your mindset?
I could have been an early(er) adopter. With Bitcoin, hesitation works against you most of the time.
My memory is so bad in regards to the bitcoin topic, before I started to look into it in about mid-November 2013... it is really strange because I recall that for at least 6 weeks prior to mid-November 2013, I had bitcoin on a list of items that "I would get to that," so my knowledge of the concept of bitcoin, prior to "getting to" it was just superficially about hearing or seeing the word.. but really having no clue about what it was, but as soon as I "looked into it," it resonated with me almost immediately - and a kind of early stage fomo started almost as soon as I decided to make my plan and to get started with carrying out my plan......
So, for me, I am NOT really sure if I would have been ready before I was ready.. I mean, if I had looked into it at some earlier date, I might not have been ready to understand it. It might not have resonated with me prior to that time.
Let's say, if I had looked into bitcoin in 2012... that would have been a great time to look into bitcoin, but I think that my mind was somewhere else at that time.. I was not ready... I was not looking for investments and I had my 401k that was being invested into every two weeks and largely maxed out for my income level and the max amount that I could put in per year (with the then existing contribution ceiling).
So one thing is knowing about it.. and another thing is being ready for it... and taking some kind of action.. gosh even $100 per month.. but think about in 2012, for example, might have been very complicated figuring it out.. silk road? MTGOX? What would have been the avenue in, exactly? And then blocking off time to study it? Personally, my mind, in 2012, was really somewhere else.. I don't think that I would have taken action. Now, in 2001-2006, I might have been receptive to the idea because I was then actively exploring investment possibilities (but of course, bitcoin did not exist), and 2007 to 2011.. my mind was somewhere else and my finances were kind of tied up in some other things.. and my life..? and the business of real life and struggles that are real in real life (and ONLY being able to juggle so many balls... not sure if a bitcoin ball could have been added into such mix of my then activities and to have resonated, at least for me and my personal situation at that particular time)... would have had to been some personal friend to come up to me and say: "have you heard of bitcoin? blah blah blah." I had no such friend with that kind of orientation or hobby... no circle of friends, anywhere close to something like that.
I had a good amount of fiat that I could have spent on Bitcoin in 2015 (the best post-MtGox time to buy, but how could I have known? Got to take risks...), but I didn't.
Perfect time. Sounds like you needed a prodding.. or a kind of friend to say to you: "have you heard of bitcoin? blah blah blah." Might have caused you to become sparked in your then thinkening.. Perhaps? Perhaps? Max Keiser, as a friend, perhaps?
And I ended up spending the very same amount of fiat on Bitcoin in the later years, ending up with a fraction of the coins i could now have. As simple as that.
You cannot really kick yourself for not getting in at the bottom... because maybe there was no hype at that time, so generally speaking in 2015 people were pretty depressed about bitcoin.. except maybe the blip in late October/early November 2015, then they went back to being depressed about bitcoin until about end of May 2016... hahahahahaha.. I remember it well, not too much excitement around bitcoin.. hard to get enthusiastic about it during those times..
I recall at several points in early 2015, my average cost per BTC was around $510 to $550 or so, and the price was spending a decent amount of time bouncing between about $230 and $260, and I had an acquaintance that was quite persistent with me with assertions that she had studied the idea a lot (by mostly looking at the charts and comparing bitcoin to stocks), and she was convinced that bitcoin might go to $300 at best (but $250 was more realistic), but it was likely to go down rather than going anywhere near my buy-in costs.. and the BTC price would ultimately end up gravitating in some price arena that was well below $100... so in sum, I was pretty much screwed from her somewhat strong point of view, and my suggestion continued to be that she did not really know what she was talking about --- even though I did not really have any insight beyond speculation that she was assessing bitcoin wrongly.. and bitcoin was less like a stock and more like a better form of gold... that's what I said, even though my investment was mostly less than 50% the value of what I invested into it.. not a strong negotiation position in terms of convincing anyone, including her... not that I was trying to convince her as much as she was spending a decent amount of energies just trying to convince me to cut my looses.
I'm not really complaining though. It's all good. It's great actually.
That's the spirit.
It's not as if we can change what we had already done.. unless there might be a way to figure out if there was something wrong with our thinking or our strategy that we could tweak in the presence or prepare for carrying out in the future.
Oh, and BTW, my Trezor (when empty) is now worth $1050 (bought it with BTC)... LOL
Most of my spending of bitcoin, especially of the bitcoin that I spent below $3k were replaced by repurchase.
I sort of lost track, but I try to balance it out to make sure that I am spending on the way up (to the extent that I spend) and then buying on the way down, so largely I tend to buy back the BTC that I spent at a lower price than I had spent them.
HoDL.
Are we in a HODL spot, currently? We surely have been in a range for a long time... .. so if we are DCA'ing or buying on dips, then probably we have already gotten a decent number of BTC in and around this price range.. If we are buying on dips.. there seems to be some troubles getting below $8,800...
I am not saying that below $8,800 is not going to happen, but there have been quite a few attempts in the past week or so.... Will it happen? Or no? My next buy order is around that area (and has not been executed.. and largely the buy orders go down ever couple of hundred thereafter... but what are the chances of them getting filled in the coming weeks? How about looking farther out? Some people have suggested that it could take a few months to get out of this price area, and I don't proclaim to know much about that or even to rule out a shorter time line on going up, even though the economy macros don't look too good, currently.. and even though there might be some reasons to purge some shitcoin froth, which could also have some affects on bitcoin, perhaps? Perhaps?
