https://twitter.com/midmagic/status/1263227677005066240?s=20This is incorrect. There are multiple reasons why a running node would restart extraNonce or increment it, and a number of other details that Sergio got wrong. It's really important not to aggrandize Sergio's work, Jimmy, not the least of which is respect for Satoshi's choices.
Even though the topic seems to irritate some people I still find this event to be deliciously interesting. My gut would be that this was NOT a coinbase that Satoshi mined, whether or not the "Patoshi" extra nonce theory holds water. I think, Satoshi, if he actually is still alive and in control of his private keys would not just move coins around from a month in.
One thing I do not see being discussed much is the level of opsec risk this entails. Adam Back get's it:
Even for some random dude from the mailing list back then... chances are they would not move coins this old without a purpose.
Everyone talking about them wanting to spend the money on something is ignoring a fairly large issue. People who were mining back then, most likely mined at least dozens of blocks. We are talking about multimillionaires at today's prices. I think it would be very rare that this is some random 'Joe' who just mined a single block back in 2009, and just now decided to buy a nice car. It is more likely that the people who mined just one block have lost those keys years ago.
No, the chances are better that this person has lots of bitcoin, and very likely quite a few much younger than these. If they wanted to spend 100k on some random thing they would be more likely to take the newer coins. If I were in their shoes I would avoid moving my oldest bitcoin until the price discovery era is over and doing so would be less of a shock. Also this person would likely also realize that they are opening up a lot of angles for the data miners, and "bitcoin archaeologists". And it comes at a potential cost to their own privacy.
This person would have done this for a specific reason most likely. And I think the likelihood that it has more to do with the CSW claims than anything else is very likely. As it turns out faketoshi did list this address in their court documents as one he controls. And the pedophile claims he called CSW to ask if he moved this and faketoshi said no.
Such a tangled web. So much fun to watch the weaving.