I don't post often, but have been part of this forum for 11 years. I'm looking for someone to provide a counter argument to these statements, which is where I believe we are going in the next ten years:
The approval of the Bitcoin ETF should be an absolute game changer in the sense that:
1. Most people buy ETF's for the long term; they are usually not looking for a quick profit buy/dump. They are a crucial component to many 401k programs where as we all know -- funds get bought and held for the long term. Obviously yes, at point of retirement, distributions are taken, but right now - there is much more buying going on than selling and this should continue slowly and steadily into the foreseeable future.
2. Couple this with the fact that around 88% of the total supply is already in circulation, how can we not continue to see a slow and steady growth in price as the scarcity issue gets larger and larger each day?
3. Approval of the ETF albeit even while that arsehole Gensler poo-pooed it gives it even more legitimacy to the consumer that was previously wary.
4. Exchange supply is extremely low right now, and the halving is right around the corner. Our current price may already reflect all of the points I am making, but again, as time goes by and supply remains limited, where else can we go but up up up?
5. I see $100,000 on the horizon but I see us reaching this slowly over the next 18 months.
What a great time to be a proud believer in Bitcoin.
The approval of the Bitcoin ETF should be an absolute game changer in the sense that:
1. Most people buy ETF's for the long term; they are usually not looking for a quick profit buy/dump. They are a crucial component to many 401k programs where as we all know -- funds get bought and held for the long term. Obviously yes, at point of retirement, distributions are taken, but right now - there is much more buying going on than selling and this should continue slowly and steadily into the foreseeable future.
2. Couple this with the fact that around 88% of the total supply is already in circulation, how can we not continue to see a slow and steady growth in price as the scarcity issue gets larger and larger each day?
3. Approval of the ETF albeit even while that arsehole Gensler poo-pooed it gives it even more legitimacy to the consumer that was previously wary.
4. Exchange supply is extremely low right now, and the halving is right around the corner. Our current price may already reflect all of the points I am making, but again, as time goes by and supply remains limited, where else can we go but up up up?
5. I see $100,000 on the horizon but I see us reaching this slowly over the next 18 months.
What a great time to be a proud believer in Bitcoin.
You seem to be bearish. I cannot see how so much ongoing buying of BTC could result in such a slow movement towards a mere doubling of the current BTC price over 18 months....
It is seeming difficult to imagine the BTC price staying below $100k until mid year... but sure, anything can happen, it just seems that ongoing UPPity BTC price pressures are ongoing, continuous and persistent.. and so who is going to keep selling them the coins? Sure people are going to sell, but are there going to be as many sellers as buyers, and even in an ongoing way? I have my doubts.
for me being aggressive should be focused on when you have a higher paying job and being Wimpy when you have no job to back you up in the journey. I believe someone who has a higher earning with aggressive investment can DCA big fund weekly, and take care of his other responsibilities and have a better emergency fund except the person is a careless or an extravagant spender otherwise there is no point of have a bigger fund and yet lack a better strategic plan. although sometimes peop with high earning are always tempted to spend alot I must confess. you know they say when your money is big your responsibility also increase along with your current financial status. it only takes self decipline to control the urge of excessive or extravagant spending.
So something I did about two years ago, was to add my nearly "agressive dca" amount to my emergency fund so that if in the future i had to tap the emergency funds for month to month living I could continue to dca into BTC. Just some food for thought with good planning you dont have to wimpy if you lose your job. Part of the reason for the emergency fund is to be prepared to spend it in the currency in which your expenses or denominated.
Rich people likely have their emergency funds in their assets and it ends up being a drop in the bucket, but if you keep your emergency funds in bitcoin and the emergency happens when the BTC price is in a 50% or 85% or some other extreme correction, you need to be prepared for those kinds of possibilities, and sure you will get thorugh the emergency, and even some folks who might have 5x their fuck you entry level status, they likely could get by with a 85% drop in BTC prices because the emergencies that might be 1-6 months of their monthly expenses might ONLY end up taking less than 1 or 2% of their total BTC holdings... so yeah, maybe they don't want to do it, but they have so much cushion that it really does not matter very much.
Versus some poor schmuck who has ONLY been investing in BTC less than a whole cycle (and look in the mirror Greyhats with your mid-2021 forum registration date), he could end up getting fucked out of a whole year or two of his investment into BTC.. and yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't, but I would not be considering that you are getting more BTC because you are using your emergency fund to buy BTC, when you end up not really having emergency and you end up having to sell the thing that is most valuable, largely because you were greedy and gambling and even recommending others to do the same thing..
Hmmm did you read what I posted, I mean how would I be able to continue dca’ing into Btc if my emergency fund wasn’t denominated in fiat currency. At no point did I say my emergency fund was denominated in btc. An emergency fund should be completely liquid. Maybe in my case I’m overly aggressive(my enter the world date might preclude that or not), I have said this before but I adjust my emergency fund for inflation and have added to the monthly expense list a btc dca amount. I don’t consider any assets I hold as part of the emergency fund, asset is not liquid in the sense of an emergency fund and like you mentioned market could be against you in your time of need.
My aggressiveness with emergency funds is more in the term of fund, its sitting at 18 months. I have had to use over my lifetime, always replenishing it. I haven’t ruled out increasing one or two more quarters but so far(from enter the world date) have only ever needed it for 8months.
The hardest thing about an emergency fund is avoiding temptation to dip into ie through some form of relaxing your risk mgmt. I would be much much more Btc “richer” if I had of reduced the fund to 12 months back when I got into btc but I didn’t. I have maintained a very risk averse emergency fund mgmt style and you can see here I’m thinking about increasing the risk aversity. The question I’m pondering this year is do I increase it to 24months or do I use that capital to go into btc more.
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