Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7718. (Read 26709821 times)

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.  
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

... shall we play a game?

Hot chilli infused roasted possum drizzled with an ancient Drambuie jus; could be one of El dude's takeaways.

Man, the British guy with the banner is dressed like he's going to Alaska, while Mark Karpelès is dressed like he's going to the beach...

Is it the fat or what?

I think this is from the late 1980s.  Should I drink it?

@nutildah for you  

Nonsense!

There's no boot like a Carolina Boot.



Certified for moon walking (going to need it soon, better stock up)...

630,000. current is 628,710
but nothing will happen. except drunkenness

edit: so, under 9 days

Oh well, the real party will be at 666 666.

Yeah.  So I started a vegetable garden.  And the fucking possums are eating (ate) all my hot chili peppers.  Everything else is fine tho.  


Thanks Dude. I did hear a little ding-a-ling.  


I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?

I came back for halvening party.  Someone remind me what block height we are waiting for?

There is nothing wrong in having gold and silver. But you must also have bitcoins! The perfect hedge of having bitcoins is to also have gold and silver. And the perfect hedge of having gold and silver is to also have bitcoins.

Hairy!

welcome back!

now get the fuck back in your house

Welcome back sire HM, so you did hear my call  

It is good to see that the majority returned, where to be better than here.

This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?

He has gold. Gold and silver.