To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.
He has gold. Gold and silver.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7719. (Read 26709821 times)
May 03, 2020, 03:55:02 AM
To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.
He has gold. Gold and silver.
May 03, 2020, 03:48:57 AM
Hairy!
welcome back!
now get the fuck back in your house
welcome back!
now get the fuck back in your house
May 03, 2020, 03:41:11 AM
To play a game you must have some bitcoins and you have not for you've already sold yours in anticipation of lower price.
May 03, 2020, 03:40:52 AM
Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats
Let’s not rush to judgment now
Good to see you hale and hearty
May 03, 2020, 03:40:25 AM
In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.
How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.
Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.
Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.
You made those graphs yourself, kellrobinson - or did you get them from somewhere?
May 03, 2020, 03:26:47 AM
In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.
How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.
Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.
Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.
How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.
Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.
Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.
Very useful, thanks.
The graphs clearly show that the times around the Halving events (2012, 2016, 2020) are some of the best times to buy Bitcoin. Rather obvious to many of us, but it's very nice to see it pictured graphically so clearly.
May 03, 2020, 03:24:50 AM
This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?
May 03, 2020, 03:21:32 AM
Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats
May 03, 2020, 03:16:55 AM
In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.
How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.
Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.
Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.
May 03, 2020, 02:48:09 AM
Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.
You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.
You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.
New York State sampling of random 15,000 people in grocery stores seems representative enough.
12.3% positives in the whole State.
19.9% positives in NYC.
About 2% in rural areas.
If you have a false positive rate of between 10 - 15%, I’m not sure you can learn anything from a 12.3% positivity rate.
That’s pretty much exactly the result you would expect if no one had it.
Also keep in mind that grocery stores are not random samples. You still have to volunteer to be tested = self selecting sample. People who think they have it, are much more likely to volunteer. If 1 in 50 shoppers volunteer, you can do the math.
May 03, 2020, 02:36:32 AM
All Members
Had to send this as:-
It is Sunday
How a written page back in 1942 could have been written for the current world situation that we find ourselves in
It's from his novel 'Screwtape Letters'
Sums the current situation to a “T”
Does this count on Government Statistics??
Has everyone now caught up with all those jobs that you have been meaning to do for so long???
Thank you Dennis W*** for these contributions
Hon Sec
Had to send this as:-
It is Sunday
How a written page back in 1942 could have been written for the current world situation that we find ourselves in
It's from his novel 'Screwtape Letters'
Sums the current situation to a “T”
Does this count on Government Statistics??
Has everyone now caught up with all those jobs that you have been meaning to do for so long???
Thank you Dennis W*** for these contributions
Hon Sec
May 03, 2020, 02:17:44 AM
We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.
Don't think they are asleep, they are waiting for the right moment.
May 03, 2020, 02:09:23 AM
https://jlopp.github.io/us-marshals-bitcoin-auctions/
Quote
Total BTC seized and sold: 185,230
Total USD gained from sales: $151,440,000
Current USD value of all sold BTC: $1,662,722,652
Potential USD gains missed: $1,511,282,652
Total USD gained from sales: $151,440,000
Current USD value of all sold BTC: $1,662,722,652
Potential USD gains missed: $1,511,282,652
Chumps.
They sold for the very thing that they can print for free.
May 03, 2020, 02:07:22 AM
Man, the British guy with the banner is dressed like he's going to Alaska, while Mark Karpelès is dressed like he's going to the beach...
Is it the fat or what?
May 03, 2020, 02:04:10 AM
https://jlopp.github.io/us-marshals-bitcoin-auctions/
Quote
Total BTC seized and sold: 185,230
Total USD gained from sales: $151,440,000
Current USD value of all sold BTC: $1,662,722,652
Potential USD gains missed: $1,511,282,652
Total USD gained from sales: $151,440,000
Current USD value of all sold BTC: $1,662,722,652
Potential USD gains missed: $1,511,282,652
May 03, 2020, 01:51:03 AM
We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.
Soon™
May 03, 2020, 01:48:17 AM
We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.
i've had this impression for some time now.
there are meetings and meetings but somehow nothing really good comes out of it...
May 03, 2020, 01:34:43 AM
We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.
May 03, 2020, 01:20:14 AM
Mini cliff jumper @ ~$8,958
May 03, 2020, 01:15:25 AM
Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.
You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.
You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.
New York State sampling of random 15,000 people in grocery stores seems representative enough.
12.3% positives in the whole State.
19.9% positives in NYC.
About 2% in rural areas.
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