Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7750. (Read 26720861 times)

i keep a small amount parked on exchanges for just that reason.. to take advantage of any sudden increase that also results in packed blocks with high fees. what good is a great price for corn when you cant get it to an exchange.

its sort of like keeping a small amount on a phone or other hot wallet. as long as you can afford to kiss it goodbye due to hack or whatever.

not you keys not your coin is Rule One, but who wants to get stuck trying to move coins when everyone else has the same idea. waiting days for a transaction is not my idea of smooth sailing during a nice price increase that may only last for days itself.

like everything else, its a trade off. pick your comfort level and sit back and relax.

... this.

I think PlanB and the phase change S2FX model is interesting but swerves heavily into behaviourial economics which becomes quite subjective/speculative.

Also I think the orders of magnitude are off. Currently bitcoin 'capitalisation' is around the USD100-200 billion range, and due to bitcoin's unique programmable properties it makes it difficult to put that valuation into a neat M0, M1, M2 type money supply classification of economics anyway. A 'phase change' to the next level at maybe 10-20x current capitalisations is not going leave bitcoin anywhere near 'geopolitical force' level, even at a peak. However, the next level could easily attract a lot of the "stolen riches" that have been printed up to paper over the graft, malfeasance and theft from our hyper-financialised fiat-debt crony-socialist system. The stolen riches are of the order USD10-20 trillion by my crude estimates. Bitcoin going to USD2-3 trillion capitalisation in the next phase change would definitely vacuum up a chunk of some of the stolen riches but I don't see any geopolitical asset allocations (central banks, treasuries, national wealth funds, etc) at this phase.

Contrary to many speculations about coming hyperinflations in fiat-denominated economies I don't think we will see widespread hyperinflation. Why haven't we seen any CPI inflation the previous 3 decades in Japan and the last 15 years in the West? The system is finely tuned now to cause only inflation in financial assets not consumer goods. Subsequently all the monetary 'fixes' are now being manifest as economic problems; stagnation, low wages, middle class hollowed out, historic wealth inequalities, etc. All the money that gets printed only goes to the top 0.1% that had all the money in the first place, it's like a shitcoin staking bonus system or something. So my point here is the M0 for the world of around $100 trillion base money is not representative of the total monetised assets in the world since many financial assets, property, commodities and derivatives have become monetised as the asset-holding classes try to escape fiat debasement over the last 50 years. The monetary premium now built into those dollar-denominated assets needs to be added to the $100 trillion of global M0 to get a true 'geopolitical' M* measure (order of magnitude) for the final phase change that PlanB talks about. I'd guess that's in the USD200-500 trillion magnitude. I don't see bitcoin capturing a significant chunk of that monetary float capital until after the 2024 halvening or the one after that at the earliest. Imperial systems take time to collapse.

After the upcoming stolen riches phase change taking us to $1-2 trillion market cap range there is also the consideration that a bloc of 'rebel' nations may defect the fiat-debt system at an earlier phase change to the majority, creating an interim 'geopolitical subwave' phase. Before the majority of nations move to a bitcoin standard, say China, Russia, Iran, N.Korea, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and other rekt systems by default move to bitcoin majorly in 2024-25, creating a market cap. of USD10-20 trillion range is then a possibility. After that, then the major economies begin to defect to bitcoin in a major move beginning 2028-30 taking bitcoin into the USD50-100 trillion range, but the value of the dollar will be becoming immeasurably meaningless by that stage.

the evening wall report


Bears launch a fierce counter-attack to drive Bulls back from new monthly highs in the final hour of trading today. Both sides take a brief respite as the battle resets again in the trenches around $9.2k       dyor


another step taken
4h



D

stronghands

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I leave up to 20% on exchange(s) for that purpose.
I could still sell the remaining corn via broker, transaction cost would be high too, but spot prices, so i wouldn't lose time for transferring corn to an exchange.
The price is always a wee bit lower than overall traded prices from exchanges. A bit higher if i'd buy.

EDIT: The broker is adjusting prices on a per-minute basis, so there is some advantage in reacting to big and fast price changes.

Good night y'all, hope to wake up to $9500+  

Slow increase is fine, as long as decreases are also slow.
"Wham-bam-thank you ma'm" like in Dec 2017 would make any selling decisions hard.
Imagine if tomorrow btc is 100K and you want to sell a few.
It might cost you to deposit into exchanges with tx price going into hundreds.
Maybe it is better to position a few on exchanges beforehand, but it is bad for mitigation of the potential hacks and/or losses.
Decisions, decisions.

Sure that is a strong investment thesis for bitcoin, including the fact that it can take a decent amount of time for the value proposition to kick in.

So many of us know that the value is up, but we don't really know how long it will take.  

Sure, a lot of us who had been relatively earlier to the BTC party already recognize the gravitational pull aspect of bitcoin that surely is a long term dynamic, but even in the shorter term, some of the more astute traditional investors are going to recognize it too and the earlier ones will likely be rewarded... just like those of us who have been relatively longer in bitcoin have been rewarded and will continue to be rewarded so long as we continue to recognize the value of accumulating, HODLing and not selling too much of our BTC too soon.


Well, sure. If you are referring to the s-curve adoption of bitcoin, then I agree that is NOT likely limited by 7 or 8 weekly candles, so you may have actually gotten me there... touché.

the afternoon wall report


new May monthly higher high at 'stamp of $9,417.95 challenging the charge to $9,485.26 that at the end of April started the Halving rally. Stay tuned folks as we observe the final hour of trading today with the Bulls so far showing a continuing assault towards $9.5k
dyor
1h


we trade in this range thru all of this..it will bode well for later this summer..you can see the baby bull standing tall
D

stronghands

I really do not want to argue that money buys you happiness or will necessarily relieve you of all of your troubles, because surely I agree with any point that merely throwing money at a situation will not resolve the matter, and also if a really poor person receives a shitload of money, but does not know how to manage money, then the problem might not be solved, except merely temporary.


Nonetheless, I believe that on the margins increased savings (such as a cushion) and increased income have the potential to resolve a lot of problems, including the disproportional impacts of crazy ass times like these.  What I am trying to say is that poor people tend to be way more disproportionately negatively impacted than richer people.  Whether they deserve it or not might be another question, but any of us who recognize these kinds of problematic areas should be striving to NOT get ourselves into such situations, if we can avoid it.


Let's say a better off person might have resources and means that result in his/her food costing less than 5% of his monthly budget, so if the price of food doubles or triples because of supply shock disruptions, s/he still has a lot of cushion in which s/he can manage his/her budget and still have extra money... so yeah, instead of having food cost 5% of his/her budget s/he instead ends up paying 10% or even 15% out of his/her budget, but s/he can still manage with the remainder.

There may be a more poor person who spends 25% of his/her budget on food, and so when his/her prices go up 2x or 3x, s/he is left struggling because all of a sudden that expense becomes 50% or 75% of his/her budget.

That is just another example trying to show that certain kinds of problems are going to have magnifying and multiplying effects on people who are either living pay check to paycheck and they have not built a savings, and sure, even  if money might not solve all problems, it can solve a lot of problems for some people who might not have a lot of financial resources.

By the  way, the people who are really struggling do not likely have any way to spare some money for bitcoins, and likely they need to get into a better situation  or even to learn money management skills before they might be able to figure out a budget for bitcoin - including the fact that before investing in anything, including but not limited to bitcoin, a lot of times, the rainy day fund needs to be in order, first.

Knock, knock, knocking on $9400.
The way from there to $9500 looks a bit steeper to me.

EDIT: Resistance, as judged by orderbook, just thinned out considerably.
Bots?

We just broke through the resistance channel set by the high of $13,764 all the way back on 6/24/2019.

Should see some more green candles from here.

30min BTC volume on just one exchange Finex is more than will be mined in a whole day i wonder what that could mean  

And right through 9300....

My brain read this as BTC F0M0.




BTW, I toured and almost went to work for Raytheon in 1990.




They try to look here three is going to be a body count they will rue.



I know Hal was working on something.



Outis

Don't want to sound mean but I'd be already filing a police report if I were you... it's very unlikely you're going to receive your Skrill or your BTC back. Perhaps the account was stolen/hijacked/sold by it's original owner? Y u no use an exchange? 

It feels most of the sellers are just speculating it will go down before it goes way up. They in fact want more BTC.

The weak hands left already.

 ...and woe to those poor souls who didn't close their fours.

All this time, and you _still_ haven't internalized the sigmoid curve of adoption.