Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7760. (Read 26710696 times)

That's a very good fundamental analysis. The only thing that I would say to this is that you don't really know since you are not in that situation and, hopefully, never would be.
For all current disbelief, almost everyone can be in a "mindrust state" (sorry for the pun) IF the price change is catastrophic. It is somewhat easy to discuss this during a strong rally, but I know myself well.

I could possibly hold to a very low number, but ONLY if I already took profits that cover my initial investment. That part in non-negotiable for me after I essentially lost a large (for me) account during the 2001-2002 crash. Bought some very speculative stocks on a small margin and as these stocks were cratering, I had to sell EVERYTHING so my account had some positive value (and not negative). That was a lesson to NEVER invest more than 20% (usually just 10%) of my portfolio in anything at ALL. 20% is a mechanical rule. I promised myself never to exceed it. In fact, when something does approach 20%, I eventually take profits so invested [$$-profit] approach 10% (or even lower) back from 20%. I do let profits run otherwise, don't care what % of the overall portfolio one item represents aka no rebalancing. The 10-20% rule only refers to the original investment.

Obviously It cannot go to zero as long as the network functions but it can go to $3-5k and stay there for a long time if the world economy loses its shit completely. Maybe even $1k.

If people can't find money to eat, would they buy crypto? nope. The only thing that can prevent this from happening is the FED and its printer but what if the printer go kaputt?

There is another thing...

I am starting to feel weird about this tether stuff lately. It bugs me a lot tether staying at the 4th spot on CMC.

What if that 6.4Billion USD is the amount Finex created out of thin air is to keep bitcoin alive (alive in contrast of dead, $1k) and that's the exact amount that people extracted from btc over the years? They created that 6.4B to keep BTC from collapsing, maybe? Because otherwise that 6.4B means Bitfinex owns 6.4B worth of assets which is, kinda, bullshit you know.

Thinking about this gives me more and more warnings about this thing so yes, I'll keep my position small and will keep extracting money when it reaches a certain size. I had my chance to buy back from 4.5k didn't do it. If it goes back to 4.5k again, won't do it again.

On the other hand, in a world where almost everything is a lie, a 6.4B lie from Bfinex looks sustainable.  

The thing is btc is not the unbeatable, invincible investment asset once it looked like to me anymore. Do I care about it when BCH makes a %500? Nope. That's how I feel about crypto now.

This may be part of why the price shot up.

Lebanon banks literally on fire.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/banks-targeted-lebanon-night-molotov-200429060510405.html

How did that work out?


 


Note: for some people, there is never a bad time to sell their BTC, and any little blip causes them to become trigger happy, yet through BTC history, we have seen a lot of bitter folks who have come out of that practice of selling too much too soon, and then they have shot their whole wadd when BTC prices shoot up another 10x or some other variant.. and maybe some of those folks never buy back in because they become disgruntled and bitter.. and they are subsequently always waiting for a BTC price correction that either never quite gets down to their previous selling point or to some further greedy point that they want to project "profits" blah blah blah...



That is no way to "grind" your balance up.   

I think even 1BTC would be a good idea for mindrust as a pension top up or something. Who knows what 1BTC will be in 20-30 years.

Even if he can’t or won’t buy 1BTC I hope he can earn it via a sig campaign or something.

I was thinking yesterday quite a bit...about whats going on in the world and specifically about bitcoin and its current price action. All of a sudden I had one of those moments of clarity that you strive for but so rarely come across.

I was thinking about the price correlation between bitcoin and legacy markets and all the negative economic news that will be coming down the pipe over the next 6 months as the world adjusts to post covid-19. I started to think about what if bitcoin was unable to de-couple and gets dragged down in the huge inflation crisis that is already baked into fiat and has been exacerbated by this pandemic. I wondered what my reaction would be if bitcoin fell below $5k...and kept falling...down to $3k...and maybe..maybe it got really bad...like total collapse..how would I handle it?

Thats when I had the epiphany. I realised that even if bitcoin fell down to $1k...or less...even down to $100 dollars..I would continue to do what I have been doing for the last 8 years...keep stacking sats. Then the moment became crystal clear for me..even if the price tried to go to zero..it never would. And when I say never...I mean that...bitcoins value will never be zero. If it drops down to a dollar or less...I would buy as many as I could...if it kept dropping..I would buy all of them. Yes...all the coin..I would scoop them up just to have them..just to say 'Look at me!  I have all the coins now!  I win!'

Now..maybe this is a character flaw...maybe Im a little bit nuts..but hand to God..in that moment of clarity..I knew it to be true...without a shadow of a doubt.

Then my keenly focused subjective reality expanded outwards...and I thought...'Well sheeeit'...there are at least 20 to 30 other crazy mofo's that I know personally who probably have the same plan. They will be trying to scoop up cheap coins by the bucket load if ever the price really tanks..its just not going to happen, I wont be able to get all of them...dammit.

The profound sense of relief that rushed through me was almost indescribable and was followed by a relaxed sense of euphoria that is still reverberating throughout my soul.

As the moment faded..more thoughts poured through my head. Out of the 8 billion people on this planet..I wondered if 21 million of us could or ever would put the value of a bitcoin at 7 figures or higher. Could there be enough other crazy ass fools out there who would pay almost anything to keep at least a million of their wealth secured by a bitcoin. I felt the answer shift from possible..to probable...and then to likely on large time scales. In terms of decades it seems almost certain...and with how things are going...maybe sooner.

Just my two sats for the day.  #dyor
tc

#stronghands

@mindrust, you should know a bit better with the words if it goes to zero.... to many strong hands and fundamental believers....

I hope you will invest a bit and at least buy a full BTC to HODL, start some DCA again and stay interested.
I do understand the feeling of being over invested isn’t easy to live with, but nothing comes easy in life.

Buy btc cause you don’t trust the current system, buy btc for financial freedom and don’t let fiat wealth be the main factor...

Cheers and be safe and happy with your decisions

Suggest an alternative.

I suppose that might be a fair characterization of my position in terms of my attempts to stress that I find it problematic when people seem to be emphasizing correlation on a short term basis, and of course, from time to time, we are going to experience short term correlation whether we are referring to bitcoin or any other asset class.

An ongoing unique aspect of bitcoin concerns trying to figure out where the fuck is its place, and is it really a new asset that is on an exponential s-curve adoption phase or will this speculative exponential s-curve adoption end up petering out.

For sure, one thing about the future is that we cannot really know it, even when with bitcoin we seem to have a lot of great facts that should inform any of us who are really attempting to study and understand the space.  Some people take longer than others to appreciate the contributions of bitcoin and the future potential contributions of it, and these differences in opinion and perspective can drag out bitcoin's adoption timeline, which also correlates with BTC price movements and momentum.




There are all kinds of shifting theories regarding who is driving bitcoin's price appreciation and/or various aspects of adoption/development, and the level of dominance of institutional traders remains only one aspect of it.  I doubt that we can fairly say that institutional traders dominate, and no matter what phase of adoption, the largest traders are going to try to manipulate BTC with whatever tools are available to them.  Sure, in the earlier days, there were not as many tools to short BTC, and in the earlier days there were not as many large players who were settling BTC in dollars, yet in the end, BTC bears and even some of the traditional financial players like to talk a BIG game in regards to their ability to control bitcoin and to cause it to be like any other reined in asset (such as gold), but bitcoin still is not even close to the same as gold in terms of physically demanding possession of the asset, which can pretty easily be done in bitcoin and can cause a considerable amount of risk for any of the traditional players to be trading bitcoin that they do not have... but yeah, I surely don't claim to know whether the BIG talkers are going to be able to manipulate bitcoin in the ways that they try to suggest that they are able to accomplish and/or if the ability of BTC HODLers to claim their coins is going to end up biting those fucktards in the ass.



Bitcoin is differentiable from those assets, that's for sure... but sure bitcoin might correlate in some short term plays, too. 


Even in an ice age, there are likely asset classes that might crash less, and probably bitcoin and PMs have just as good of a chance, and in the end, you have to decide what you are going to do an how you are going to allocate.

Yeah, Ice ages could last for decades, but even Japan was not the reserve currency at the time of its ice age, so dynamics are different than trying to use the japanese situation to predict what might happen this time around in your seemingly long-term hypothetical apocalyptic scenario.


Seems to me that bitcoin is way the fuck too new to be making those kinds of long term correlations... but hey, Biodom, as far as I remember, you have been bothered about long term correlation of BTC and equities for a decently long period of time, and you were seeing correlation, even during periods of considerable bitcoin upspurts such as April to June 2019 and October 25, 2019.  You just consider those signals as aberations and continue to want to see bitcoin as correlated in spite of what seems to be decent evidence that bitcoin does not really correlate as much as peep (including ur lil selfie) seem to want to identify such ongoing correlation.


I doubt that is the ONLY hope for bitcoin, and even if bitcoin remains flat while all the other assets plunge, that would still be bullish as fuck for bitcoin, even while the bitcoin doom and gloomers (naysayers) would be proclaiming bitcoin to have been a failure because it did not experience exponential upward growth as was projected in the stock to flow model.  Fuck that.  We do not have to follow stock to flow in order for bitcoin to be successful, especially if there ends up being a system of depreciation of all other asset classes and bitcoin merely just stays or does not depreciate as much as the others.

In the end, a central question still becomes whether you or anyone else who might be perceiving bad outcomes for bitcoin in all of this, whether you feel that you need to change your own personal strategy or approach whether that is reallocating or changing how your new money is allocated.. where you going to put it?  Is bitcoin in a worse situation relative to your previous thinking in regards to what is going on with the macro space?  I doubt that we really have any meaningful evidence showing that bitcoin is likely to underperform in comparison to other assets in the coming years, but hey, reasonable minds can differ even in light of seemingly bullish as fuck conditions for bitcoin, currently (caveat.. dyor, ymmv, btmfd).

Did someone call me. xd

Selling from the bottom costed  $40k+ now btc is going above $8k and possibly will keep losing while it keeps going up. Still though, I know how It felt when I was over-invested. That's something I don't want to experience ever again.

Got %1 exposure in crypto right now and it feels quite good actually. In time It will reach %10-20 probably and I don't want it to go higher than that. I don't expect anything more from this investment tbh. I'll mostly keep staying as cash in the next 3-5 years.

I don't see this disease going away soon.  Still making my $50 weekly buys, no big deal. Got some alts like ltc and xmr too. (I am not %99.99 btc anymore) If these all reach their ATH's again, it'll make up for my losses last month. I don't expect anything more from crypto.

It is all about how you feel safe, well, I feel safer when I got more cash around. (no offense, I don't feel safe with an asset that is volatile af) Back to buying lottery tickets. If they go high, its good. If they go to zero, who cares. Stopped being greedy about it. It doesn't do good to me.

*I'll also be extracting cash out of it as long as it keeps going above %20 of my portfolio. (That's something I should have done since the beginning) Last month changed my views on making investments a little bit.  (hopefully in a positive way)

The italians are also very dirty people with a large elderly population. Half of them don't wash their hands after using the can and they hug and kiss instead of shaking hands. Of course they have a high death rate.

Just saw some stats on excess death rate compared to previous years. Some countries have 50% more, denmark a mere 5%, most some place inbetween. Cultural practices matter at least as much as the virus itself.

EDIT:

This is a picture of Lazlo ordering a couple pizzas via the lightning network.

Umm...  Look at the marble fireplace?  Look out the window...

Does this look like the property of a guy who didn't have some BTC left behind after the famous pizza purchase?    (I couldn;t afford his BLINDS)

Goldman’s Chilling S&P 500 Crash Prediction Makes Bitcoin Vulnerable in Mid-2020


https://bitcoinist.com/goldmans-chilling-sp-500-crash-prediction-makes-bitcoin-vulnerable-in-mid-2020/

By then the decoupling will be complete.

errm

+1 WOsMerit

not bad..there goes the rest of the day

Ah yes. "I made a bad mistake and now you should pay for it". The calling card of a true looter.

Toot toot!

+1 WOsMerit

A long night and wishful thinking got me misreading what you wrote.   

Think things would have been much more bearable if the gubermint had sent out a bottle of Valium, half a dozen cases of beer and a ounce of chronic instead of stupid stimulus checks.

#bringbacklemon714's

.