Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7851. (Read 26607532 times)

https://twitter.com/cryptograffiti/status/1245724893305397249

For duderino_ although surely the decoration of their gym already includes something of this style.

Sure, profits might not be tangible for each person, and sure the costs might outweigh the benefits for some people.

Yes, I understand that my attempts to describe various ways that I profit from this might frequently get lost in my long texts, but I have attempted to describe various ways that I profit with this technique, and maybe I can summarize my profits by having peace of mind so that when the price goes down from $10,500 to $3,850 in a relatively short period of time (about 30 days, right?), I have money that I can buy BTC all the way down without injecting new money.  There is a kind of insurance in that and a kind of emotional freedom, including that I still have more cushion left, too. 

Same thing when the BTC price goes shooting up from $4,200 to $13,880 in about 3 months.  I feel that my profits were not just on paper,  because I shaved off some BTC at various intervals all the way up, and I have that money available to buy back if I want, or maybe at some later date, I can just decide, fuck it and withdraw the money, I did not squander that opportunity by just sitting on my BTC.  Sure, maybe these are NOT exactly tangible profits. 

By the way, my buy and sell orders are sufficiently spread apart that exchange fees are only a small fraction of the money that is stacked on either end.  Surely some fees have gone up during the years, but most of the time they are still less than .5%, so a back and forth move would be around 1% in fees, but if my spread is currently at around $1,000, then at current prices that is about a 14%...   In the olden days, I used to trade much smaller spreads, so the exchange fees ended up constituting a higher portion, but the trades would execute way more frequently too, so in the end, any strategy should at minimum cover the fees and have some profit in there, otherwise, I would agree with your suggested concern that the fees might be eating up way too much of what is stacked away by making the various trades.  So the example that I used in my earlier posts of about 22 buy trades being executed all the way down from $9k to $4k.. something like that.. and so all of the orders that got filled will all add up to a portion of principle, a portion of profit and a portion of fees, and the fees would likely be less than 5% of the overall profit amount (and sure your milage may vary depending on how you set your order increments and spreads and which exchanges you use in terms of how high the fees are).

Bright future ahead

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1245724477847040000


https://twitter.com/cryptograffiti/status/1209214997554876416

BTCuy BTCitcoin

What you seem to want to do seems to be quite different from what I am trying to do.  

You seem to be trying to gamble by trying to time the market, and I say fuck all that.  I say that when you sell you have to be prepared that the price is never coming back down, and if it does, then so be it, you happen to have cash available for buying more.

So in essence, my strategy involves overstocking BTC, so that when you sell you are o.k with being locked into that sale forever.

I consider that I am not gamble in my strategy, and I am only using the sales as a kind of downside insurance, and mostly just maintaining a large stash while shaving some BTC off as the BTC price is likely to go up in the long run and the BTC price is likely to go up and down and up.  

So, one of the most inevitable things about BTC seems to be that it is ongoingly volatile, and in the short term you don't really know where it is going to go.. but there is a kind of underlying premise that in the long term the BTC price will be going up.


Sure, it can become way the fuck more difficult to add cash when banks (and exchanges) fuck around with you in that regard.  I am not exempt from some of those issues, but my problem has not gotten so bad that I do not have access to injecting more cash if I need to through a couple of regular exchange avenues.

I suppose that if I had your problem, then I would figure out other ways to buy BTC and to be overly aggressive about it.. so buy a bit more than you need.  Accordingly, then when the BTC price goes up, you shave some of that off, and VIOLA all of a sudden you have cash on whatever exchanges you are using.



Something like $100 is best for getting a lot of practice, but surely you can run out of money fast if the price moves far in the direction of your orders, and it can take a while to get back to the place where you started and sometimes the price never comes back to the place to where you started, if we are talking about up... Usually the price comes back to the place where you started if we are talking about down, but sometimes it can take a few years to come back...

When I started out doing this when BTC prices were around $250 (in October 2015), I was using $5 increments or something like that.. hahahahahaha

But when I started out I wanted to get a lot of practice, and I did get a lot of practice.  However, as the price moved up I increased my increments and I also felt like I needed way less practice, and I was also kind of wanting to get to a place where my orders were only getting triggered on BIG BTC price swings.

Currently, I am using around $250 increments and my spreads are around $900... but that might not work for you and your current desire to accumulate BTC... So my next buy orders are at a little above $6,300 and then every $250-ish down from there.  My next sell orders are a bit over $7,400 and every about $250 up from there.  Recent sell action was two orders at below $7k and around $7,200.  
Before that I had bought at $6k and before that I had sold at $7k... so there is bouncing back and forth but the spread is not really keeping me too active in reseting orders.. because frequently we are caught bouncing around in a range that does not trigger orders on either side and I just wait and let the price come to me, which sometimes takes several weeks before an order is filled, but then sometimes 10 or more orders might be filled in a short time.. so remember when we went down from $10,300 to $3,850, I had something like 22 buy orders trigger without any sell orders (also I have a couple of locations that I am doing this, so it is around double 44 buy orders without any sell orders).  

Similar things happen at other points in time.. remember October 25, the BTC price went up $3k in 12 hours, and remember April 1 to June 27, BTC price went from $4,200 to $13,880.. those were mostly sell orders all the way up with only a few corrections that were significant enough to trigger buy orders along the way of selling at various increments that also changed a bit at that particular time.

I am NOT focused on trying to accumulate BTC because I have plenty of BTC (for my own needs and interests), so I am trying to provide some downside insurance and also to feel good and comfortable if the BTC price goes shooting down way more than any of us would like and stays down there longer than we would like it to stay there.  So I am feeling good because I am not having to inject any more dollars into the system but at the same time I am able to pretty much buy all the way down to whatever stupid ass outrageous dip happens and even to ride it out for however long it takes while still continuing to employ my system of buying on the way down and sell on the way up and never run out of either dollars or BTC.

I have gone back and forth with jbreher on this topic of increments, and he seems to have way the fuck smaller increments than me, and he claims to be making a killing whether the BTC price is going down or it is going up, he is saying that he is making a killing.. for whatever that is worth.  Sure, I don't doubt that you can benefit from BTC price movements in either direction (accordingly the volatility), but I am feeling way the fuck better when the price is going up rather than down because the value that i have on exchanges and that i am selling is much smaller than my overall value.. so in essence, currently, I am selling less than 10% for every 100% that the BTC price goes up. .. or less than 1% for every 10% the BTC price goes up.. some of these formulas have changed over time, too.



I am not really understanding what that issue/situation is that you are describing.


I am too nervous to attempt to employ combined orders, so I just do all mine manually, and my spread is usually enough that I don't really miss out too often from the quick ups and downs.. most of the time the spread is great enough that both sides do not trigger and I have plenty of time to reset the orders, and really what tends to happen is that the price goes on a tear and it just keeps moving in one direction for way longer than it seems to be normal before it reverses... so usually it is not a big deal if I happen to miss a quickie reversal.

Of course, if you are trying to take advantage of much smaller spreads, then I can see why you might advantage from some combined orders, especially if your spreads are only like half of mine like $400 or $500.. and yeah, the opposite side is going to be triggered way more often, which actually happened a lot to me in my earlier days when I was practicing more... I agree that I was making more money with that (and stacking more sats), but it did take more time, too... so has its plusses and minuses in terms of sometimes the BTC price was moving at times of the day that I wanted to be doing other things, such as sleeping.  So yeah, ultimately a trade off in terms of the spread and how much free time you will have and how much profits.



Yes, I certainly feel like a bot myself, sometimes and of course, if you have a trading bot, then you have to make sure that you program it correctly, and if you make one little screw up you could end up getting wiped out of your trading stash or whatever the trading bot has access to.  

I have not used any kind of trading bot because I do not have enough confidence in my abilities to program such a thing properly, but I do see how there might be some potential with such a trading bot.. absent some of the possible screw ups and time making sure that you got your programming customized to what you want rather than some preset shit that might not be good for your specific aims.

Bullwhat? What is he trying to say?

Censorship is ridiculous. We have movies and games with people getting their limbs torn off, but a nipple is bad and fully spelling out words that everyone knows what means anyway is terrible!

My strategy is fairly simple. Only sell what you are ok with never buying back, and only buy what you are fine with holding for many years. Other than that I shoot from the hip.

It works, but is slow and does not produce entirely predictable results. But so far there has not been a loss in my overall plan. And it does require some resources other than what you trade with.

‘They Have the Users’: Binance CEO Explains Why He Bought CoinMarketCap


https://www.coindesk.com/binances-coinmarketcap-acquisition-is-a-bet-that-crypto-really-is-for-the-masses

---

Alternatives:

- CoinGecko

- CoinOrderBook

- CryptoCompare

- CoinRateCap

- BitInfoCharts

- OnChainFX

Chinese godzilla just stepped on your family. But take a breather, it's not so bad.

No. Just because it's a virus instead of a nuke does not make them any less responsible for the GLOBAL PANDEMIC they unleashed on the world. It is unbelievable that there are still people who will defend them.

And it does not matter if it was by mistake or deliberate. It's the thought that counts when you are ten years old. In the adult world, results matter. Especially when your choices affect billions.

Do you think people get more or less aggressive from simply being written off as maniacs? You are making things worse.

I can see that maybe your goals are quite different than mine.

One of the best ways to assure that you have more BTC in the end is just to continue to buy it, as others have said... you buy on the dips and you DCA. 

When you sell any amount of your BTC, you have to be prepared that the price is going to keep going up and those BTC will be sold forever; however, if the price happens to dip, then you can use the proceeds from the sale to buy back, but if you continue to sell on the way up, you are going to end up having fewer BTC because BTC prices are more likely to go up than down, and you do not want to be selling so much of your BTC that you end up depleting your BTC supply... so ultimately the reason for selling BTC should be for downside insurance rather than making more BTC.

To some degree both. I knew I was worth more than just being another loser on welfare. When I was, it was my firm conviction that the welfare state should be abolished and that a free market would benefit the people as a whole more. It still is now that I am financially independent, nothing has changed.

People gravitate to the class that suits them best. Some people simply do not have the ability to do more than barely feed and clothe themselves no matter what. Some are in unfortunate circumstances. Some are born into riches. But on average, people are where they belong.

“The only god I know” is the god of Bitcoin.  He cares about consensus validation, not about breathing; I am on my own with that one.  I do not pray, and do not need to.

Keep your psychologically perverse fear-porn fetish to yourself.  It is disturbing how much you evidently relish spinning a graphically gory horror-story from the real-life suffering of others, in a futile attempt to scare someone who, albeit not immune to the virus, is immune to your memetic contagion.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1245745840448311303

it's a Market Maker strategy. simplify that it means:

price +xxx --> sell 10.0
price  +xx --> sell  1.0
price   +x --> sell    0.1

volatility of the price

price   -x --> buy    0.1
price  -xx --> buy  1.0
price -xxx --> buy 10.0

the secret is here to manage the right lot sizes if you sell and buy so that you don't run out of the asset.

but if you have a strong buy trend like with BTCitcoin you will run out of bitcoins anytime.

therefore exchanges have 3 sources of income:

1. exchange fees
2. market making
3. market manipulation

because they need to manipulate the market after a long bull run and bring the market down again to get their lost bitcoins back somehow.

If the physician is the least bit established, most office visit claims are processed as "clean claims," meaning they are automatically processed. They don't have to "fight the insurance company" or "chase reimbursement." They submit the claim and receive payment for it with no questions asked.

Of course if you are willing to pay the amount in cash that would otherwise be reimbursed to them by the insurance company, then yes I can see how they would rather just have the cash, makes sense. Most Americans aren't in a position to be able to do this. That's why they have insurance.

If you _don't_ have insurance and end up at the hospital for some sort of cancer removal and an extended stay, your bill could easily run into the hundreds of thousands, and you will be on the hook for every penny.

Hospitals are willing to work on payment plans for their patients, as they'd rather get something than nothing, but the simpler solution is to just have health insurance. Even if its just medicare or medicaid.

Sometimes a hospital bill will be $200k but the maximum reimbursement from an insurance company is $15k. The charge is high not because the stay, supplies, and procedures were that costly. Its because they are trying to milk the uninsured.

RIP Adam Schlesinger. You will be missed.
Phuck this virus sucks.


https://youtu.be/dZLfasMPOU4

Thanks for your detailed answer.

I have set up orders (previously) in 100$ increments. The excel spreadsheet with percentages is a good idea.

I won't be adding BTC (if I sell BTC, it's to buy something). I might add cash, however I first need to find a way to do it on the DL, maybe an ATM, because my banks are now flagging transfers to exchanges.

100$ may be too much work, my immediate issue though is that I'm using an exchange represented by an octopus, because my cash is there, and I have no way to make combined orders.

Do we agree that for the strategy to work optimally, unless spending all my time in front of a screen and not sleeping, I need combined orders ?

Or maybe a trading bot ?

don't make losing trades


good luck