Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7947. (Read 26623285 times)

Lockdown...

we ate all the cows

clearly I'm going to have to reconsider that run to the IRAZ

Oh jojo I had no idea
No.
The cow eats the ferns.
The man eats the cow.

What did the poor cows ever do to you you bypass them like they weren't even there?

sweet jesus

been eating ferns so long I have forgotten what beef even tastes like

you bastard

Wassaaaup r0achie?
How are those bars of yours doing?

Typical no coiners try to justify their actions, and talk BTC down, and point out as many negatives as they can, while trying to show themselves as objective.


I have heard negative stuff out of you previously, too, but I suppose it is somewhat easier to talk negative bitcoin stuff when you don't have any coins.


Sounds like a very reachable goal..



Exactly, your mind was melting, and maybe you did not even realize it.  Good thing you got out of bitcoin before your mind melted some more. 



Gotta do the greed and gambling in moderation.

Of course, greed can be characterized as a negative or as a positive.  As a positive, greed is merely just framing things in such a way that activities that are in your control directed in a way that is to be in your self-interests.

I already addressed this gambling issue in an earlier post, but surely, if you align your view of probabilities up, then you try not to bet against the probabilities, but just have realistic expectations, except maybe every once in a while you might just gamble a little here or there, as long as most of your life is secure, then you should be able to gamble with some aspects of your life that you don't mind if you lose or not.  For example, maybe in a card game with friends you might play for quarters rather than for $100s of dollars...keep the gambling part funzies rather than a central aspect of life.

ACE2

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/exclusive-controversial-experiments-make-bird-flu-more-risky-poised-resume#


Ferrets are the key. Breed a avian H5N1 or SARS-like virus through 5-10 generations in ferrets (or civets) and it gains a receptor to ACE2 and become human transmissible, airborne.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002199751400005X

Isolate a SARS-like bat coronavirus from a cave in china somewhere and breed it through ferrets (or civets for sars-cov-1) for 5-10 generations and you end up with something indistinguishable from SARS-COV-2. The claim of 'not engineered' is disingenuous at best ... if it was bred in a laboratory cage somewhere I would call that engineered, or manmade at least, even if there wasn't any gene-splicing involved.

JFC. Multi kill.

If you start to get bad memory, and you realize that you are getting bad memory, wouldn't you have to change some of your procedures such as writing things down more?

Many people do like to try to stay mostly-self reliant, but of course, if possible, there could be help from "friends" but even with "help from friends" it seems to me that many people prefer to try to be self-reliant in order that they do not feel that they are becoming too much of a burden on others.

https://denver.craigslist.org/search/sss?query=grass%20fed%20beef&sort=rel

Cascadian here

It's not the Mexico border I'm worried about, but the front line with the Mormon Theocracy.  Currently holding them at Fort Rock in Oregon, but with the increasing pressure from the Sino-Canadians from the North, resources are stressed.

I do hold a passport for the Intermountain Redneck Autonomous Zone and have considered bugging out, but the run across the territory of the Consolidated Yakima-Umatilla has become a real problem since their ethnic cleansing of the whites.  Besides, my heart is here.

Morgan Stanley predict jobless claims to 3.4m tomorrow. That is not an axis.

Stink bids.

https://twitter.com/TheDannyLes/status/1242882157107970048

finding this often now. Not censorship or deletion, but just snip off the ?s=20 at the end of the link.

I still have Bombay Sapphire but I’ve run out of Tonic Water.

Shit just got real!

https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-todays-btc-difficulty-adjustment-may-cause-the-price-to-plunge
Ridiculous FUD but self-fulfilling probably and certainly coincidental to the next shocking stock market dump.
Get your stink bids in down to mindrust levels of cheap.

The only problem I see in that sensible plan... is that this is the second time you become a nocoiner:


Whatever you do now, my only advise is that whatever plan you do decide to follow, you do stick to it no matter what... Otherwise I would not be surprised if you do end being a nocoiner for a third time.

Perhaps one could read some humor in that.   

Like ground's hog day.... just keep doing it over and over and over until you get it right.  One of the problems with that fiction of ground's hog day is that in the meantime, you are getting older, so you don't get another opportunity to go into the stream at the same place, because the water is a bit different.

It's thirteen o'clock on day 25 month 3 2023 and wave 7 of CoVid-21 has mostly cleared the herd as far over the Persian Gulf, killing a lightweight 4% this round. Europe is still largely aflame, but a few gentlemen have been seen gripping successfully to the far northern isles. The Cascadia-Mexico border is as intractable as ever, and UBI and MMT have reduced those once proud nations to rags, with cockroaches for sustenance and filthy water for drink. Bobville celebrates the first anniversary of its name change from Antananarivo and the continent is ruled with loving care as ever by He-Who-Abides.
There's a big fight on the Wall Observer Thread of Bitcointalk fame about whether the next halving has been priced in. Some say 'duh look at that massive volume spike and giant green dildo, that must be it' and some say 'you have to wait till after the halving for the pricing to kick in, trust me I was here back in 2020 and saw how it spiked to 256K in late 2021. Just give it a chance young padawan and your socks will be blown off'.

I should not even have to say anything.

Just look at your above statements, they are internally contradictory.

You cannot have a "great" system that is only prepared for one direction (or mostly one direction, as long the other direction is not too extreme).  Get real.  We already know that bitcoin has extremes, and if you buy on the way down and then you cannot sustain your buys, you just have to stop buying and just ride it out.  We have said this like a thousand times in this thread... I mean we said it enough that the practice should mostly be ingrained.

So, yeah, one aspect about your above statement is that you acknowledge that you lost control and therefore that you went too far in terms of throwing too much of your fiat (reserves) at the down movement too quickly.

I am not going to portray myself as some kind of saint, any of us who are trying to employ a kind of system that both DCAs and buys on dips is likely to run into some kind of variation of the problem that you describe, which is running out of money while buying on the way down, and at some point, as long as we are not getting really retarded in terms of attempting to employ leverage, we either have to tapper our buys down drastically in terms of amounts or the increments of the buys or we have to just completely stop and just wait it out... which could even take several months if the situation becomes a bit way too far out of wack.    


Join the club, especially when it comes to short term.. but when it comes to longer term, that is what we have to keep in mind, so even though the short term can both out pace expectations, it can also last way the fuck longer than we would like to happen... So waiting it out, might mean that you are 70% underwater for a decent amount of time (maybe 3 to 10 months or perhaps even longer), and maybe you would just keep dollar cost averaging into such a situation.  I was in a similar situation in the last half of 2014, all of 2015 and the first half of 2016.  I was 65% down at several points, and spent a lot of 2015 in the 50%-ish down.


Maybe that could be called conservative?  Switching over to dollars is not necessarily "conservative" because that is only one asset class, and so you end up having nearly all of your eggs in one basket.



I don't think that there is any right number, exactly, because once mindrust made the mistake of selling 10BTC ish at $4,500-ish and therefore going 100% into cash, there was some kind of calculation of factors.. NOT just the panic aspect but something else, also.

So, 50% might not be right.. but 20% to 30% or some number that is less than 50% might be right for the circumstances.  I actually don't know what that is, either, so I am not going to pretend to exactly be able to say what that number would be for mindrust. but I get your point, cryptotourist that likely anywhere between about zero and 20% might objectively be wrong numbers under almost any scenario.. including the fact that even mindrust is admitting that he made a mistake and regretting his decision and therefore, he is compounding one mistake on top of another.

I think that the number has to do with what realistic, true and not fantasy land probability mindrust assigns to up and what number he assigns to down (I could care less than two shits about whether he is correct or not or what number any of us assigns to the probability), and the amount that he puts back into BTC would some how make those numbers line up in such a way that his reinvestment back into BTC turns him into something close to a neutral in terms of how much emotions he attaches to either BTC price direction (and fuck it about whether he is right or not, that does not matter, because if he is lining up the numbers in such a way that he is emotionally neutral, the ultimate direction does not matter, and sure he can tweak along the way, too from time to time).. so his action would make him neutral and not give any shits either way.... something like that.

Of course, there is some kind of locking into taking these kinds of actions, but still when each of us takes an action like this, we are still empowered to do whatever we want, including changing it; however, if we truly engage with ourselves about our thinking about the asset, we should be able to make some kind of commitment that we do not have to change every time that BTC prices change by 3% or 5%.