Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 7949. (Read 26623495 times)

It's thirteen o'clock on day 25 month 3 2023 and wave 7 of CoVid-21 has mostly cleared the herd as far over the Persian Gulf, killing a lightweight 4% this round. Europe is still largely aflame, but a few gentlemen have been seen gripping successfully to the far northern isles. The Cascadia-Mexico border is as intractable as ever, and UBI and MMT have reduced those once proud nations to rags, with cockroaches for sustenance and filthy water for drink. Bobville celebrates the first anniversary of its name change from Antananarivo and the continent is ruled with loving care as ever by He-Who-Abides.
There's a big fight on the Wall Observer Thread of Bitcointalk fame about whether the next halving has been priced in. Some say 'duh look at that massive volume spike and giant green dildo, that must be it' and some say 'you have to wait till after the halving for the pricing to kick in, trust me I was here back in 2020 and saw how it spiked to 256K in late 2021. Just give it a chance young padawan and your socks will be blown off'.

I should not even have to say anything.

Just look at your above statements, they are internally contradictory.

You cannot have a "great" system that is only prepared for one direction (or mostly one direction, as long the other direction is not too extreme).  Get real.  We already know that bitcoin has extremes, and if you buy on the way down and then you cannot sustain your buys, you just have to stop buying and just ride it out.  We have said this like a thousand times in this thread... I mean we said it enough that the practice should mostly be ingrained.

So, yeah, one aspect about your above statement is that you acknowledge that you lost control and therefore that you went too far in terms of throwing too much of your fiat (reserves) at the down movement too quickly.

I am not going to portray myself as some kind of saint, any of us who are trying to employ a kind of system that both DCAs and buys on dips is likely to run into some kind of variation of the problem that you describe, which is running out of money while buying on the way down, and at some point, as long as we are not getting really retarded in terms of attempting to employ leverage, we either have to tapper our buys down drastically in terms of amounts or the increments of the buys or we have to just completely stop and just wait it out... which could even take several months if the situation becomes a bit way too far out of wack.    


Join the club, especially when it comes to short term.. but when it comes to longer term, that is what we have to keep in mind, so even though the short term can both out pace expectations, it can also last way the fuck longer than we would like to happen... So waiting it out, might mean that you are 70% underwater for a decent amount of time (maybe 3 to 10 months or perhaps even longer), and maybe you would just keep dollar cost averaging into such a situation.  I was in a similar situation in the last half of 2014, all of 2015 and the first half of 2016.  I was 65% down at several points, and spent a lot of 2015 in the 50%-ish down.


Maybe that could be called conservative?  Switching over to dollars is not necessarily "conservative" because that is only one asset class, and so you end up having nearly all of your eggs in one basket.



I don't think that there is any right number, exactly, because once mindrust made the mistake of selling 10BTC ish at $4,500-ish and therefore going 100% into cash, there was some kind of calculation of factors.. NOT just the panic aspect but something else, also.

So, 50% might not be right.. but 20% to 30% or some number that is less than 50% might be right for the circumstances.  I actually don't know what that is, either, so I am not going to pretend to exactly be able to say what that number would be for mindrust. but I get your point, cryptotourist that likely anywhere between about zero and 20% might objectively be wrong numbers under almost any scenario.. including the fact that even mindrust is admitting that he made a mistake and regretting his decision and therefore, he is compounding one mistake on top of another.

I think that the number has to do with what realistic, true and not fantasy land probability mindrust assigns to up and what number he assigns to down (I could care less than two shits about whether he is correct or not or what number any of us assigns to the probability), and the amount that he puts back into BTC would some how make those numbers line up in such a way that his reinvestment back into BTC turns him into something close to a neutral in terms of how much emotions he attaches to either BTC price direction (and fuck it about whether he is right or not, that does not matter, because if he is lining up the numbers in such a way that he is emotionally neutral, the ultimate direction does not matter, and sure he can tweak along the way, too from time to time).. so his action would make him neutral and not give any shits either way.... something like that.

Of course, there is some kind of locking into taking these kinds of actions, but still when each of us takes an action like this, we are still empowered to do whatever we want, including changing it; however, if we truly engage with ourselves about our thinking about the asset, we should be able to make some kind of commitment that we do not have to change every time that BTC prices change by 3% or 5%.

Ah!
I can make you crank merits but not activity!
We will have to wait then!

Elwar,
with all due respect.
This is a nonsense.

Mobile are not allowed for patients in ICU.

A couple of video to tell you it's real:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgPZtTeEG5k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_gjf3p-cf8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y39Y6ANewME

Want more? I have plenty of those

And me in isolation with my computer com-9 

meanwhile

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

-coming to the US tomorrow                                                                           edited

broken for now 

The UK has now *downgraded* COVID-19 as of March 19th, is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID).

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid




...aaannd it's gone.

The miracle is the website didn't crash with that traffic.

edit more Brit stuff, a big field hosp. https://twitter.com/TheDannyLes/status/1242882157107970048?s=20

edit try this https://twitter.com/TheDannyLes/status/1242882157107970048

That's also the link between Ibuprofen and severe Covid development in healthy, younger patients.
On many of their stories they said they've taken Ibu in the early stages of sickness, because they were thinking of a common cold, before Covid got way worse.
WHO retreated on that Ibu warning without any explanation, afaik...

probably ACE2 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15141377 that's about SARS
https://emcrit.org/ibcc/COVID19/
not sure if that is what you're asking

While tested negative for cojones 

Err, while the bros were in "jail", the atmosphere got a lil more agressive and negative than usual, imo.

EDIT: Just recognized the sM++ THANKS 
Activity has to go up a bit more and my hat will be on again!

we need to figure out what the fuck the marker is that this thing is latching on to

the filter it is applying is just bizarre

BBC News - Chloe Middleton: Coronavirus victim, 21, 'had no health issues'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709

May be we have this in April because right now sticking around 6600$ and 6750$.

Its time to take that $7,000 hurdle 

of major differences-10K student loan forgiveness is out. I agree, that was peripheral (nothing directly to do with the current predicament), but would have made an impact on millenials/gen X-ers.
However, with congressmen being older than 60, it had no chance.

I might be a few minutes behind, what I understand at this instant...

a supposed deal has been reached, the mechanics of passage on the floor are still pending and is not assured

the DD was dropped from the final version



grain of salt, the situation is fluid

edit/

GOP Senators Demand Fix For "Massive Error" In Coronavirus Bill Which Would Create "Perverse Incentive"


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/coronavirus-bill-may-suffer-further-delay-after-gop-senators-demand-fix-massive-drafting

something something, die at jamba juice you peasants