I've been saying the same thing for years, so consider STFU, JJG. It is Thursday, after all...
If there is a panic on Wall Street, crypto will be the first to feel the effects as it is the highest risk category of high risk investments. This is due to institutional money now being firmly entangled in the crypto market, even if its just mainly bitcoin.
You actually merited this post, JJG:
A new recession will be the true test of bitcoin's market resilience. It will also determine what % of the market cap is currently propped up by Wall Street. As bitcoin is the highest risk of the high risk investment class (actually altcoins are the very highest), a recession will see a sell-off of institution-owned BTC.
If BTC can then establish itself as a "safe haven" investment after the outflow of institutional money, then yeah, sky's the limit.
Though I don't prefer to be the bringer of negativity, bitcoin is among the highest of the high-risk investment category. If there's a market sell-off, BTC, now inexorably tied with Wall Street, will be one of the first assets to suffer a major sell-off, as big-time investors (however ironically) plow their money into cash.
...
The case for BTC being some sort of alternative store of value to the dollar just isn't there yet, IMHO. Speculators have to get out first, which as we all know, isn't happening any time soon.
I agree we don't know how it will work exactly, but my hunch is a recession will drag it down since it is seen as an "extremely high risk" investment. This is the category of investment most likely to tank first in a stock market crash. For the longest time there was no correlation between BTC and stock market movement but that began to change last year when Wall Street started moving in.
Bitcoin only has the potential to be a safe haven investment compared to the dollar if in response to a new crash the feds begin a new game of QE that makes the last one look like Little League. Otherwise the dollar is the go-to investment during a recession.
Fair enough.. that you might be the same consistent nagging nabobs of negativism.
I am going to hold off on sending any additional smerits, for now, since you are kind of being annoying, currently.
but happy for the discount. 