Observing corn @6,700
All is good.
1BTC=1BTC
Fillippone still not COVID positive (this is a success for the moment)
I re read my post, and I am still convinced this is the true reason of the fall.
Some miners are capitulating, as difficulty is now going to be revised down to -5%!
Interesting times ahead
Let me just elaborate a little bit more on this idea for explaining the dump.
So the idea is the following:
- Difficulty is increasing steadily over the last adjustments according to https://btc.com/stats/diff. Hash rate has already grown more than 20% YtD.
- Next expected difficulty adjustment is still expected upwards. It is too early to call for a reliable estimante , but according to https://diff.cryptothis.com/ will be between+0.5% and + 7.50%
- Bitmain has just introduced the S19 and S19 PRO miners, which are going to destroy the s9 miners.
- Halving is exactly two months time (according to https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/). This will put a lot of pressure on less efficient miners, pushing their mining profitability below the survivor ship minimum threshold.
- Market is thin and nervous around critical supports, a whale selling could trigger lower levels to profit from
- As brillantly pointed out by @plutosky in the italian board, the move didn't start from the bad fincancial world. True, BTC derivatives experienced record volumes during the past hours, but Open interest actually declined. This is a strong hint that the volumes were caused by longs being stopped out. Of course it could also meaning shorts taking profits, but in the end this means derivatives didn't originate the move, as they are now with reduced positions.
As you can see volumes were steady before the movement:
Suddenly there were a lot of liquidations:
That led to a reduced open interest:
So yes, this is a reasonable explanation in my opinion, why miners could have been actually selling this market.
I doubt however they had the firing power, or the interest, to start this movement.
