Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8455. (Read 26715295 times)

Dragonstone.

Nice hypothetical LFC.

What you going to do, if serveria ends up being correct, and you sold most of your coins below $150k?

Hey, I know that I am giving you some shit because you said that you are ONLY selling half, but is that how it is going to go down, and are you going to be content with yourself if BTC prices 2-4x beyond your most bullish of expectations? 

Are you financially and psychologically prepared for such a possibility, I mean if you sell 1/2 of your BTC at somewhere in the $100k (even sub $100k territory?)? 

Of course, we should be prepared for the outrageous scenarios, including that the top might only get to $65k, and even I am quite skeptical of anything beyond $200k for this cycle, but I surely will have enough bitcoin if such a thing were to happen. 

I am planning to skim off BTC all the way up whether it stops at $15k, or $35k, or $65k or $600k or whatever, and even I have some trouble appreciating what I am going to do with all of the cash that is going to be generated from my skimming off sales, so I don't feel any need to sell higher quantities (percentages of my portfolio) of BTC in order to have more than enough cash from any possible bullrun that might happen.

Aids-Flu guarantees we never reach Bargain prices such as 6k again. 11k in less than a week imo.

adjusted levels because of the new AYH.

Masterluc can go take a flying fuck...

Sure $6k is possible..

just like $1.5k was possible in late 2018/early 2019.... but it did not happen.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276

... airborne confirmed in MSM, because they never run fake news  

  Bitstamp AYH    10,199.85 USD  


EDIT: adjusted to the correct Bitstamp AYH (source: Bitstamp)

Then..................................

"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

"My feelings, as usual, we will slaughter them all."

"Our initial assessment is that they will all die."

"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

"We will welcome them with bullets and shoes."

"They're not even [within] 100 miles [of Baghdad]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq.

"They fled. The American louts fled. Indeed, concerning the fighting waged by the heroes of the Arab Socialist Baath Party yesterday, one amazing thing really is the cowardice of the American soldiers. we had not anticipated this."

"God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis."

"They tried to bring a small number of tanks and personnel carriers in through al-Durah but they were surrounded and most of their infidels had their throats cut."

"I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly."


Now.........................

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I remember you had similar circumstances in 2015-ish.... so it's not like there is anything that I can say that is likely to influence you in any kind of way... I mean, you have been around the forum, and fairly active in the forum, except for the last couple of months or so...

Of course, we are writing in a public thread, so we are not engaged in some kind of private and personal conversation, and surely readers of this thread are not necessarily going to understand your particulars - not that I really claim to know them either.

Actually, I give very similar suggestions to everyone who seems interested in bitcoin and that is just to establish some kind of stake in bitcoin and to continue to just do what you can to get a stake, but certainly any person has to both want to get into bitcoin and to have his/her finances in sufficient order.. and surely having finances in order is one of the more important parts. 

The other relatively BIG category of person that I run into that talks about bitcoin that seems to justify NOT getting into bitcoin is that the person who is largely just liquidating assets and not really seeming to be interested in investing for the future... which seems to suggest that s/he already has sufficient cashflow from whatever investments that s/he had made over the year and just is living off of the income from that and drawing down whatever principle remains in those investments.

I for one often report about masterluc here. He was the first analyst to impress me with his long term prediction. I agree he's lost his edge, but I also think there's little damage to hear his more recent short term calls - even if they're off more often than not.

And I think you could get a hat even without winning, if you want it.

I respect your theory of dollar cost averaging and "investing" over time and all that stuff and would say that is quite a safe strategy, but your style/theory doesn't apply to everyone..



This is a good thing to tell newbs but I don't consider it true for me at all..
I have only ever bought $100 worth of BTC in my life!!! In 12/2017 at the same time I sold about .8 BTC for $$.. Thinking about buying some back..
I have NOT "bought in" to BTC/Crypto EVER.. Ever ever..

In 2014 I got 0.01BTC for FREE from a friend sent to my Cryptsy account.. That's all.. Just 0.01BTC worth around $5..
Between then and the time Cryptsy crashed I traded that 0.01 BTC into over 2 BTC.. Trading ONLY.. Thousands of trades bro.. I wish that never would have ended..
I sold a decent chunk of that for car parts like an idiot @ <$500/BTC.. So stupid..

Traded Polo mainly for a while after that.. Handle there was "SatSnatcher".. Scalping satoshis.. Always scalping satoshis..
Went into arbing altcoin exchanges for a while.. Made meager profits..
Then I made some nice profits TRADING XCP assets, lol..
Think I did about 400% gain on what I put into Huobi...

Dude I have probably LOST on 2,000+ trades easy across many many exchanges, but won more that I lost with a good risk/reward ratio..

99% of ALL crypto I have ever owned has ALL been made trading exchanges.. ALL OF IT!! I've never bought anything..

I got into crypto TO TRADE.. I didn't know shit about crypto, didn't know shit about trading either, but I wanted to try trading, and I fell in love with Bitcoin..

You don't have to believe me but I'm telling you that that is the god's honest truth..

Check the date of this post I made..
One of my first few posts on Bitcointalk..
And when I said that I meant that I increased my BTC stash by 14,000%, not $$ or anything else..
I have always only traded to increase my BTC stash no matter what, no mater what that meant in $..

 
You can say all you want that "Trading is NOT a way to accumulate BTC" but that just is not correct 100% of the time..
Trading has been MY way of accumulating BTC and I am proof otherwise..

I have never made much of shit lending here or with signatures or anything.. Anything I have made on Bitcointalk is very insignificant.. I haven't been paid for a signature here in YEARS..

"Investing" $20 a week into BTC seems silly to me WHEN I SHOULD BE TRADING..

I am not very risk-adverse..
I have been poor, I have been homeless in a shelter, I have been to jail, I have lost everything, I've been there..
I look back on it now as a fun and adventurous time of my life.. It taught me that I can do almost anything.. I can bicycle through a city in a blizzard.. I can hike miles.. I'm confident that I could be dropped off in any city in America with absolutely nothing and figure out how to make it work..
I can hardly believe what all I can do if I just decide to do it.. I can come back from anything..

I have also worked some of the most demanding jobs imaginable.. I can go work 100 hours a week across the country if I want to, on remote well locations, and bank.. I've worked in the Detroit ghetto where few dare to go, and you eat lunch at bulletproof Taco Bells that have obviously been shot up a time or 2, shots all still in the glass.. I'm not scared to do it again if I need to, but I don't like to spend my life that way..
Just another excellent adventure, but it gets unpleasant after a while..



I am a very self-reliant person.. What most people spend money on I do myself..
I can work on/fix almost F'n anything.. I'm a bit of a collector of tools..
I also don't waste my money buying trash..
I only like to buy things that last forever, are useful, and hold value, as much as possible.. I like classic/vintage stuff over modern junk anyway so it works well..


Some things are more important than money..

As far as Debt..
I have plenty of assets other than Bitcoin that could easy be sold to pay off all of my debt..
I could sell less than half my cars alone and be debt free.. I don't owe a cent on my property and it is worth many times what my "debts" are, or cars..
I could go work like a slave for a couple months and pay it..
No big deal..

Of course there are going to be times in which cashflows are more pressed than other times, but if you project your cashflow ahead, then you can adjust for the UPs and the DOWNs in your cashflow along the way.  My starting out income was really small for many years, but I always still saved and invested, and i did so in very conservative ways throughout my life... of course, my income has increased too through the years and that is NO small part to the savings and investments all along that gives more options and more abilities to do more things and to consume more things.

Every person is going to employ a different method for projecting their cashflow.  When I was just leaving home and I was first on my own, I only needed to project 3 to 6 months in advance because my life was NOT very complicated and I could keep even less than a $300 cushion in my cashflow and still feel like that gave me enough flexibility, but as my economic obligations became more complicated and I employed a variety of different tools, including employment of debt/credit and got involved in businesses that had uncertain cashflows, I generally felt more comfortable projecting my cashflow quite a bit further in advance, such as 18-24 months in advance and projecting with a $1,500 or more cushion.

Of course, if I always tried to have a cash cushion in my cashflow, and the more uncertainties the more cushion, I would also have different kinds of expenses that would be projected and different kinds of income, and of course there are uncertainties with any of those that are going to vary with people, and sometimes I would have to draw from various kinds of pools of money (investments or savings) in order to make sure that I maintained whatever was my cashflow cushion, but as the years went by, my investment pools became larger and larger and more diverse, so it would become easier to figure out which pool to draw money and how to balance or how to prevent from even having to move money around.

I was always choosing which investment (pools) were the first ones on the list to draw from in the event of emergencies.  

When you project your cashflow ahead, you can see cashflow shortages coming way the fuck before they become an emergency, and maybe the first line of defense would be to change spending or to move the payment of certain bills or to spread things out or just NOT to invest as much for several months until the cashflow seemed to be back to a more normalized state, or sometimes money would need to be moved around with calculations based on which funds were the best ones to use based on fees or interest rates or opportunity costs towards adjusting for seeming emergencies that were seeming to come up... and of course, living within your means is one of the best ways to have a lot of different cash funds and options too.. including not buying new things all the time and not going on 4 vacations a year.  

There are a variety of ways to make sure that you have money to invest, that you have your cashflow projected in advance, that you make sure that you have a cushion that is appropriate to your circumstances.. including really poor people.... but if you are staying poor for a really long time without improvement to the funds that you have available and you are not making various kinds of investments and savings, then that might be a sign that you are NOT doing things right and you need to tweak your systems in order that you get your cashflow in order.

TLDR: Sure, there might be some luck involved with managing cashflow and being able to invest and save on mostly an ongoing basis, but there is also a lot of preparation and ongoing management of income and expenses and making sure that you are living well within your means in order that you have money left over for investing and you are NOT investing beyond your abilities to keep emergency funds and a sufficient cash cushion for your situation.

I must admit that I do find it a bit entertaining to see you guys going back and forth on this topic, but really, OutOfMemory, you are being too nice to be engaging with the emotions of Arriemoller... but whatever, do what you want... there could be some entertainment value in the back and forth for some folks...   

fucking hell


time to short

Good thing you missed the Dallas Renegades game, it wasn't pretty.

If you have a long enough timeline, let's say 10 to 15 years, then you should be able to accumulate a decent amount of value in BTC.  When I first started in the workplace, I did not presume that I would be able to make any kind of fortune or anything like that in less than 20 years, and 30 years was a more realistic target to be able to say fuck you and to retire or whatever..   With BTC, it seems possible to be able to accomplish such status in a shorter period of time (I mean shorter than 30 years), but it does NOT mean that it would be realistic to conclude that you could reach such status in less than 10 years... especially if you have to build up your wealth yourself rather than already coming from wealth that is handed to you on a silver platter and with a silver spoon... (no recommendation towards actual silver, intended)


Even the dollar cost average website (chart) shows that you do not need a large investment, as long as you are consistently investing through time.... so for example investing $20 per week for the past 4 years is still going to get you 2.5 bitcoins by now....

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2016-02-09&sda=4_years&f=weekly&d=4_years&ac=2000&c=true





That is a good thing that you are able to live without a lot of expenses, and likely means that it should be easier to reach your goal.



Well, if you already a bit more than a couple BTC, then you have a strong base to build and to continue to preserve.  Some people are going to be struggling just to get 1 BTC.. so if you already achieved that, you just keep building upon it without doing anything stupid.. just build and accumulate BTC.. or stack sats.


You cannot buy $20 of BTC per week or something modest like that?  Of course, you don't need to have that much, but $20 seems kind of achievable for quite a few people... but you do what you are able to do, and if that is only $5 per week, then so be it.  It all adds up if you stick with it.



Of course, sometimes debt can be used for a variety of purposes, so yeah, if your debt is costing you a lot, then you might need to get some of that in order in your life, but if your debt is making you money or getting put to solid investment purposes where you are earning more than it costs you to service the debt, then that kind of debt is NOT necessarily a bad thing to figure out how to play to your advantage... or just to work towards reducing it, if you know that such ongoing debt is costing your more than it is worth.



Even though ideology should not be your central motivator, it is o.k. to believe that you are investing in what you consider the "right" kinds of things.  There are quite a few of us who have some of those kinds of motives that can justify part of our investment motives, but it should not be the central driver.. the central driver regarding how we invest should be attempting to improve our own personal situation with the passage of time and attempting to engage in behaviors that we believe to maximize our returns given the totality of our individual considerations including our cash flow, other investments, views on bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and our skills and time to research and to manage our portfolio.


Betting is a dumb-ass fuck way to invest or to consider investing or possible returns.  Yeah, you might get lucky, but you might not.  Once you have built a decent investment and you have accumulated, sure you can play around with betting, but betting should not be central to any accumulation strategy... and only employed after you have reached decently large reserves that you can "play around" with.


Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.  The best ways to accumulate  BTC/wealth is DCA and buying on dips.  Once you get to a stronger accumulation level and establish a decent position that is relativley strong, then you can fuck around with trading.. The trading should only come after you have established a strong BTC position and ONLY with a small amount of your BTC holdings, -----  i.e. trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC because then you are just employing or developing a gambling mindset, which sounds like you have already tried that and have not been successful with it, so why continue with such nonsense when it does not really work for you, as you already indicated?

I, personally, swing trade in order to attempt to insure my portfolio from downside BTC price moves, and sure that results in more BTC accumulation, but trading was not the way that I accumulated my BTC.  

I largely accumulated my BTC between 2013 and 2015 buy buying on dips and DCAing...  So I was decently well established before I sold any single BTC and I never sold a BTC that was not already in profits...   Sometimes also, during 2013 to 2016, I would kind of panic whenever I sold any BTC because I constantly wanted to make sure that I would be able to buy back any BTC that I sold during that time.

 And, if I had been younger when I got into BTC (or if I was just starting to invest), I would have likely been planning to DCA into BTC for 15 years or longer, but before 2013, I had already been DCAing into other kinds of traditional investments for nearly 30years, so I already had built a decent amount of capital to be able to move from my traditional investments into BTC... that took well over a year for me to establish my initial BTC stake based on a kind of transfer and reallocation of wealth from traditional investments into BTC and then to just continue to accumulate BTC for another year or so after I felt that I had made my transfer into BTC even though I had already felt that I had a decent initial stake within a bit more than the 1st year of transferring money from other investments into BTC.

Punchline is that unless you are some kind of professional trader or you are really methodic and dedicate a long to time very conservative and the establishment of fool proof strategies (and there are some out there if you really know how to figure it out), you should not be planning on building your BTC wealth based on trading... because, again, that is a gambling perspective, which is likely to result in tears of pain rather than tears of profit..   .

Yep, we have made a lot of money wearing tin foil hats round these parts.  

The SEC does care about the family members of these oligarchs who live here, go to school here, etc, and trade in our markets.

Yep Hong Kong can't be trusted, their citizens will tell you that.

Singapore though, is the best we have. Close to Asia, rich, a government that is pretty honest and does look after it's people despite being authoritarian in nature, fantastic health system, plenty of travel from China before being stopped, and very urban. This is the one to watch I reckon.

It does proves that while they dont know everything, what they do know is scaring them shitless while they tell everyone else to relax and buy moar stocks.  

Say you live next to a zoo, in the black of night you hear something that sounds like a tiger roaring and bushes rustling near you.

You don't know exactly what kind of animal it is or if its chasing you. You don't console yourself that since you arent completely sure whats going on that its no worse than the flu. You run like a motherfucker.

Ordered a crane for the Ocean Builders factory from China.

They had previously pushed back the delivery date. At first we figured they were just making excuses. Today they said it will be delayed longer because all factories in their area are shut down due to the virus.