Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8454. (Read 26715270 times)

Reminds me of 2017, probably going to take a while before properly breached:

I understand that I might be coming off as a bit dogmatic, yet I understand that each person has to find their own level of balance and figure out what strategy or combination of strategies work for them.

Dollar cost averaging is a method that is proven to be very effective with almost any asset, and tends to be especially superior to any attempts to time the market as long as in the long run the price of the asset tends towards up.. or at least it goes up sufficiently at some point in time that anyone buying into such asset is able to cash out in profits at some point in time in the future.


Dollar cost averaging is especially good for anyone in an accumulation phase of their investment.  So, let's say that your goal is to accumulate enough BTC in order that your BTC reflects 10% of the total value of all of your investible assets, and you want to reach that goal within a year.  Accordingly, you would budget for that year.  Also if you are still building your whole investment portfolio, you would also figure out how to allocate your investment budget for all of the assets that you have in your portfolio.



If you consider yourself to be good at trading, then surely you could try to trade instead of dollar cost averaging, but dollar cost averaging tends to out perform trading.  Once you get to a certain level of accumulation, then maybe at that point you could establish a trading budget.  

Of course, you want to be a trader, so that is what you want to do.. not going to be able to stop you... and I don't want to stop you from doing what you want to do..



I am NOT sure if you should be proud of NOT buying.  What you do depends on your cashflow, so if you get a cashflow in dollars or some form of fiat, then the most logical way to acquire bitcoin would be through buying it.  Of course you can perform services, but it would not make any sense for some people to NOT buy it.

Of course, if you are in some kind of business in which you earn BTC or mine it, and if that starts to constitute a large portion of your income, then you have to sell BTC in order to pay some bills.  Ultimately, there is going to be some kind of balance in terms of how to consider your investment and your investing style.

When I got into BTC in late 2013, and I accumulated BTC for a bit over 1 year to acquire my initial BTC stake, and then the next 1-2 years, I was still injecting some money into BTC, but more in a kind of maintenance mode.  My income was mostly in fiat and dollars, and when I was transitioning into BTC, I was largely reallocating about 10% of my investment portfolio into BTC, which took about a year to accomplish and that was by going through dollars first.

So, yeah, it is up to you to consider if you believe that it is a good thing to choose NOT to buy BTC, especially if you may only need to acquire enough BTC that would constitute a few hundred thousand dollars in order to feel that it is covering your investment accumulation goals.



O.k... if you believe that you can replicate your trading profits, then you should not need very much BTC in order to reach your few hundred thousand dollars of value...

A problem remains about whether history is replicable.. and that is up to you to determine, and hopefully you do not have too high of expectations out of your own abilities.  That is on you, because I could give less than two shits if you happen to be a wonderful trader because I am personally NOT going to do it, and I would rather be doing other things with my time.



That's on you... if you consider yourself to be a good trader, then do it... The vast majority of people do not do great with that kind of stuff, and like I said, I only do swing trading, so I don't consider myself to be a trader, even though once in a while I will take advantage of some obvious profit that might be staring me in the face, but I largely do not play around with that shit.  Not my style.




Great...  Not stopping you, especially if you happen to be one of the few who are profitable with it.


So if you start with 1 BTC, then you should have 140BTC... great.  Hard to beat that.

I think that I have fewer BTC than I bought... and my BTC profits are less than 15x up... and that is measured in the dollar investment... even though I feel rich.. .but hey.. whatever, if you can make BTC through trading, then you should not need to limit yourself to a few hundred thousand in terms of a goal of being financially set.



It is sufficiently enough true to say it quite emphatically... and dollar cost averaging tends to be the way better path forward for the vast majority of normies.

If you happen to be someone who has found a niche in trading, then go do it to your hearts desire.  That is on you.. I am not going  to stop telling people to accumulate a stash first and to NOT trade until they have a foundational stash.  Lot's of people lose their principle and they are not able to get it back because they engage in gambling behaviors, so if you or anyone else is smart enough to figure out systems to preserve your principle and to be able to profit from trading, then it is all good on you to employ such system to your benefit.



well do it then.



Some people make some bitcoin through that method.




I used $20 as an example.  The amount that you buy with dollar cost averaging depends on your budget, and if you otherwise have your shit together in terms of your budget.  

Probably, I misunderstood some of your goals since you said something about having had spent 1.6BTC and that you had a bit more than 1.6BTC and that you had acquired most of your BTC at $500-ish.., so I thought that you had been in BTC for a few years and therefore, maybe you had a tight budget that was causing you troubles in the rate in which you were able to acquire BTC.  

I cannot really determine if you are shifting the goals in this subsequent post, but in the end, it is up to you to figure out what are your own goals, and your budget, and sure, if you believe that your time is effectively spent on trading BTC.... and of course, you are coming off as hostile to dollar cost averaging, even though dollar cost averaging has proven to be a very solid method, especially for NON-traders... which you have clearly proclaimed yourself NOT to be... hahahahaha

From your earlier post, it had sounded to me that you did not want to trade BTC and that you had not done well in your prior trading of BTC, and now all of a sudden you seem to have shifted your emphasis and are now proclaiming to be a quasi-god of an expert trader.  So I may have misunderstood your earlier description.




I suppose that you have to find a style that suits your perception of your personality and what you want to continue to be.  I was a lot more risk-taking in my youth, but not as much with my finances... To me, I recognize that it is very difficult to rebuild your portfolio if you lose it, and surely a lot of people end up putting themselves into really fucked up situations in their older years because they did not know how to be conservative with preservation of their wealth.

Of course, you can be more risk taking when you hardly have any wealth, but if you are trading hundreds of bitcoins and that is all that you have to your name, you might want to consider stashing some of those away so that you have a working capital that you trade with and another portion that is stocked away.. but whatever that is up to you.

I am sure that you have heard about the martingale method. It is a method that is statistically shown to be a loser, but a lot of gamblers use such method and walk away at opportune times, buy if you are playing with your whole stash, at some point, you may end up running yourself into an inability to keep doubling down, and you end up being homeless for the rest of your life and without any kind of capital... but again the extent that you employ wealth preservation as an important system is up to you and sometimes is only really appreciated when you actually have a lot of wealth that you are able to preserve.

I did all kinds of crazy shit when I was in my teens and even when I was in my 20s and 30s... but sometimes, your luck can run out or you can be in some pretty deep shit if you do not start building at some point.  I personally feel so lucky in life, especially when I see some of the people at my same age, but yeah, each of us are going to appreciate different things including figuring out how liquid we want our wealth to be or how tied down that we want to be to any geography or job... and surely nice to have options and an income and even NOT having to work, if we don't want to work... work as optional is much more empowering than halving to either work or to be having to really restrict yourself in your old age because you don't have enough income coming in because you failed to prepare yourself adequately.

 



You going to be able to do that when you are 50?  Do you want to have to do that when you are 50?  What if you are injured in some kind of way, which happens to some people by the time that they reach 50, and they did not plan it that way, but they are not able to run a marathon or fight in gladiators as they were able to do when they were 40.... even chicks are going to expect them to have money by the time they are 50 otherwise they won't even be able to bang chicks... Go figure.



Of course, many of us have stories that we can tell about certain kinds of things that we have done, and yeah, if you have lived through it, then you also want to be able to have an income in order that you don't have to do those kinds of things in your old age.



O.k.... maybe we agree on some of these matters to be important.  I was just using the ability to live within your means as examples to be able to have enough of a budget to be able to stock away some of your income on a regular basis and to build wealth.

It seems to me to be better to live frugally when young and be able to splurge when older, if you want.. but you only get to the ability to be able to splurge when you are older if you have enough of a nest egg in order to be able to do it.  So, yeah, if you come from wealth, you might not have to worry, but it sounds like you are similar to me, at least in terms of that you did not come from wealth.. so in that regard, you have to build your own wealth.



When I was young, I did a lot of things in which I was not really focused on making a lot of money.  I was ideological, and I was even that way in my work... however, I always would stock money away, usually at least 10% of my income, and sometimes there was variance, so I am glad that everything has really worked out well for me in terms of money and maybe there has been some luck in that regard.  Money does give you options.. that's for sure... and sure, it is not the most important thing... but good NOT to have to worry about it, if possible..




Well, there is nothing wrong with balancing some debt, and I think that I already made my points, in that regard, but if you are not really accumulating Bitcoin, then that is on you... at least you know about bitcoin, so you are way the fuck further than a lot of people, but even if you know about bitcoin  but you do not act to accumulate bitcoin, then it is not going to do you a lot of good to have known about bitcoin before some of the no coiners and precoiners.  

I personally think that it s a good idea to figure out ways to accumulate bitcoin, and surely DCA is an easy ass way to do it.. but apparently you do not want to do that.  And through the link that I provided I already showed you what $20 per week would have done over 4 years.  You can increase that amount and see how powerful DCA is.. and of course, you can trade too, if that is how you want to spend time, but you did not seem like you wanted to trade, but now, you are an expert trader, so maybe that could be an option that works for you to figure out how to accumulate BTC over the coming years so when you get into your 50s you have a kind of fuck you status rather than having to be in the ratt race.. It's up to you ... It's up to you, and you surely know your particulars way better than anyone else, including yours truly.

Come on, 15000!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3Ix4hKSnxQ

Calm your tits Ladies & Gents and some LGBTQ...

Everything is still under control by the bulls.




The recently mild dump is actually a healthy dump so that BTC price will move towards on the average price range. It's good to see that the ATR of BTC was decrease to 300$ level which
indicates that volatility is decreasing and BTC price is growing organically. Keep safe in trading guys! 

slowly?

Thats how you know this pump is organic and real. Little dumps here and there so we dont move up to fast.

Bull Season is here. Buy all dips.

probably just a little profit taking. We're up 25% in 30 days.

Master Luc the party pooper pooped on us.

Observing $9898

Big dump..
WTF just happened?

^^^ I agree with much of what you say, it's not clear that bitcoin or gold really benefit in a shtf situation, it depends on the severity. A medium-level hit that upsets the economic apple cart sees safe haven assets do well, in a high severity event that has you scrounging for scraps against your neighbour 'asset' and 'values' become nebulous concepts.

However, in the early stages of exogenous shocks like this coronavirus there is a lot of uncertainty so safe haven assets tend to do well in the short-medium term until things become clearer. Also take note here that there is a subtle difference between a 'flight to safety' and 'flight capital' although they may have overlap.

If you are genuinely fleeing from a effed-up situation, e.g. war, plague, riots, revolution, capital controls, etc and you want to liquidate your assets and take your liquidity with you, or send it on ahead, that is flight capital, bitcoin excels at this function btw, gold is good but heavy and modern border controls (KYC/AML) make it much less useful.

A widespread shift of capital into safe haven assets due to some event or crises in the markets can be called a flight to safety and a range of assets can be useful in those situations.

Bitcoin, imho, is the premiere asset for flight capital today and can also serve somewhat as a safe haven asset, but that is much less proven as it still carries too much risk and volatility to be considered a flight to safety.

I think you guys might be overestimating the pump value on BTC that the China Virus has..

If I was a Chinese guy and had a lot of extra money, sure, putting it into Bitcoin would probably be a good idea rather than holding it in CNY or Chinese stocks..

If I was a Chinese guy with some Bitcoin but not a lot of extra money, I'd be selling the crap out of Bitcoin to buy prepping supplies like food and water to hold up for months without needing to go out..


If this was happening where I live.. I would probably be trading some/much of my Bitcoin for a bunch of 5.56Coin, .308Coin, ParabellumCoin, food, and other supplies, if I needed to..

If this was threatening me, I wouldn't be too concerned about making money on Bitcoin, unless I had so much money I didn't need it all for supplies..

Me personally, I am pretty well prepped already..
I'm a bit of a collector of useful things, so I already have some decent preps like power generation equipment in many forms, offgrid heat, masks/respirators, radios, hunting/fishing supplies, Likely EMP proof vehicles, etc.. etc..  
Actually I think I even have everything lying around to build a Steam Powered Electricity Generator, to turn anything from wood to Used Tires into electricity, if I wanted to..

If it's time to buy a load of food and gasoline, top up, in this current market I wouldn't need to dip into my Bitcoins to buy these things, nor would it be the most convenient way..


Just saying.. I'm not sure that a Pandemic would be 100% good for Bitcoin..

The best defence is a good offence defence.

Still early days...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-report-illustrates-why-institutions-should-hold-bitcoin

Amazon censors book titled “A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind”:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/technology/amazon-bookstore-nazis.html

In a quarantined city where no one is working...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- The number of coronavirus cases worldwide has reached 40,000, death toll surpasses 900.

- 10 new cases in Hong Kong, 3 new cases in Singapore; 6 patients in critical condition.

- Spain reports country's 2nd case of coronavirus on Mallorca.

- First wave of Chinese businesses going bankrupt.

- KFC worker is diagnosed with coronavirus as company shuts thousands of restaurants in China.

- WHO Director-General warns "we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg".

- Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected.

Huh?

The vast majority of peeps were predicting between about $3k and $7k for 2017.  Of course, there were guys like adam predicting $32k, and there were some $10k folks, but these super bullish predictions were not really the norm.  There were a lot of bearish predictions too.. like we already reached the top... blah blah blah..

Yeah, in retrospect, 2017 might seem all clear, but largely the BTC price move in 2017 went about 3x to 5x beyond expectations....

Now, after reaching $19,666, did people expect 2-3 years to get back to $19,666... I don't think so... Many folks were considering resuming another top, like what happened in 2013.. two tops... but yeah, in retrospect, we see that double top performance did not happen.

John?  Is that you?

Didn't McAfee say the same stupid thing? 

In late 2017, McAfee said that it is pure math that bitcoin is going to 1/2 $million by end of 2020 - then a few weeks later, he upped his prediction price to $1million, and then in the end of 2019, while maths did not seem to be going his way, he retracted his whole statement and suggested that he was engaging in hyperbole that no one should have taken seriously.

Dragonstone.

Nice hypothetical LFC.

What you going to do, if serveria ends up being correct, and you sold most of your coins below $150k?

Hey, I know that I am giving you some shit because you said that you are ONLY selling half, but is that how it is going to go down, and are you going to be content with yourself if BTC prices 2-4x beyond your most bullish of expectations? 

Are you financially and psychologically prepared for such a possibility, I mean if you sell 1/2 of your BTC at somewhere in the $100k (even sub $100k territory?)? 

Of course, we should be prepared for the outrageous scenarios, including that the top might only get to $65k, and even I am quite skeptical of anything beyond $200k for this cycle, but I surely will have enough bitcoin if such a thing were to happen. 

I am planning to skim off BTC all the way up whether it stops at $15k, or $35k, or $65k or $600k or whatever, and even I have some trouble appreciating what I am going to do with all of the cash that is going to be generated from my skimming off sales, so I don't feel any need to sell higher quantities (percentages of my portfolio) of BTC in order to have more than enough cash from any possible bullrun that might happen.