Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8938. (Read 26609054 times)

Nothing like a little JJG essay of anger and self righteousness to brighten the day. Full of pretentious judgement, warnings, false assumptions and mischaracterization. This typically happens before a big drop in price. Its a very bearish indicator short term. 

Notice the amount of people HOLDING Bitcoin 18-24 months is expanding, these are all people who bought between November of 2017 to April of 2018 currently. This should continue to expand as this the new wave of HODLERs who bought during the 2018 bear market.

As long as Bitcoins user growth continues, Bitcoin is mathematically designed to appreciate in value over the long term. That's what the halving is all about. So keep an eye on demand only, because the supply side is sorted.

There is however the existing supply that is being saved (hoarded), you also need to keep an eye on that. But, as previous runs have shown this is taken up very easily by increased demand and coins aged over 5 years are unaffected. See link:

https://hodlwave.com/

Bitcoin is what is known as a supply restricted market. These types of markets always have large booms and large busts. Think of the property markets that are also supply restricted. Some Californian cities are a good example. Restricted supply of new housing (supply) and high international and national immigration, with loose credit conditions (demand). On the way up everyone holds onto their home because it goes up in value more than the earn, and everyone who doesn't own wants in quick because FOMO for a basic living requirement. These are the new holders. Of course at some point the price just gets too high, fraudulent lending finds no more customers, then price starts to dip. We all know what happens next.

Then look at some of the cities in Texas, these don't have large swings in price despite having high population growth (demand). Why? because they build shitloads of housing (supply). Even with the same credit conditions as California these houses don't go ballistic in price.

In summary, demand matches supply, all good. Demand outstrips supply, like it always does every 4 years with bitcoin, boom!

You are exaggerating.  There is no pattern in which every single time that the BTC price trend reversed was upon clear and convincing high volume.  That's nonsense.  Sure sometimes high volume reversal happens and sometimes it does not.


Call it what you will:  "downtrend" or "correction within a bullmarket"  .. you are still seeming to ascribe too much certainty to something that can go either way... whether subsequently you end up being correct or NOT  or whether you subsequently are able to frame the matter in your favor to assert that you were correct, in the end, you are largely just guessing or playing off some kind of hunch that may or may end up playing out in a way that fits your narrative.

You better watch out, because you won't want to ascribe being so god damned right to yourself that you end up being like jonoiv or roach or some other unseemly character that gets stuck on a narrative that ends up NOT playing out anywhere close to their repeatedly asserted expectations..



Nothing wrong with that so long as you are not ascribing too much "have to happen" to how much correction that you believe is "necessary" before UPpity is resumed.


Glad that you recognize that, at least...even though you are trying to come off as some kind of all knowing sorcerer, which is annoying to say the least... ... ...

By the way, I could give too ratt's asses about whether you are delivering "unpleasant truths", but that does not seem to be what you are doing.  Instead, you are ascribing too much soothsayer status to your pronouncements in an effort to appear like you are the smartest guy in the room.... which is:





oh really?

That's exactly what worries me the most: Having so much hope that Bitcoin will get over the previous ATH sometime in the next couple of years as if it were an almost SURE thing... really scares myself and makes me wonder if I am just being naive/delusional.

Also, the amount of hodlers that have plans to sell a significant percentage of their stash during the next bull run seems (maybe I am wrong) to be way bigger than previous times (where there were much less expectations). That alone would require huge liquidity on the buy side just to sustain the price.

Likewise appreciated, thanks bro!  Its been fun strutting around the boards with a pocket full of merit lately, means more that they are earned for sure  
Anyhow, there aren't many around me IRL that would appreciate the patches and I thought this would be some way I could creatively contribute.  I still have some for gorilla style taggings around the cities.  
The machine must be having her mercury retrograde this week with some errors so I'm backing off and putting her away.  
Thanks to everyone else who've put up with Icygreen's knitting corner. #nohomo

Yeah, thus why I hold. But you start getting into millions on your BTC hoard and folk are gonna sell, likely all will sell at the same time for the same reasons.

I wonder if we do have a recession if we still won't see even more selling on BTC/Crypto, due to 'real-life issues' and compensating for the drop in the stock market.

Indeed lower you risk on a 20% correction (recession) on the stock market and buy some stock when it floors with BTC (assuming my above is correct and also folk

selling their view of excess BTC at the same time)

Interesting times. I MIGHT be tempted to sell some of the BTC hoards, at say $12k a BTC. But I myself expect a recession. So following you logic in your post,

about the time I'd sell my BTC (15% cap gains gone and 10% cap gains from state tax USA =25%), then IF you wanted to put this in stock, right after you do so of course,

the recession would hit ..so 20% correction. Now you are at a 45% loss kinda/sorta in real BTC vs cash. I myself suspect 40% recession correction, a bad one. So if I did so,

as your post says, I would be very, very miffed! at a 65% loss by transferring any BTC from Hoard to stocks and traditional investments..just to watch them take 7-12 years to

come back (what some folks say it will take to recover from next recession) ...JUST to watch BTC/Crypto act like Gold and go sideways or UP!

I would be despondent. Like those guys in 2013 who bought houses (wives urging) at 100 buck BTC because it would never make 200 buck BTC!

Sure, I know a couple walked away with a house and 1 million in cash, but they were pretty despondent on here and chat boards in December at 1k BTC!

So, if it is all RISK on any choice, I choose to HODL  for the above reasons.

It is DAMN mystical in any choice I make on BTC/Crypto since 2013 it is always this or that. I could have flipped a coin on each major choice on BTC and been in the same

boat as today, with less guessing. mine/buy or sell/rebuy or alts/btc etc etc

fun times though

anyway, what my side of the fence looks like above so far, until the next time I panic and sell like a 9-year old child when it dumps (with crying/screaming etc) as I did with

13 BTC at $3,965 USD BTC price. (went down to $3,200 USD I was briefly quite proud of myself) Groan! So experiencing both options hold/sell in whatever quantity my bet is HODL.

(I did, however, get back to being only 10 BTC short on above in buybacks but it still stings damn it!)

such is life a variety of choices with little no real information

But someday I may just 'snap' like a dry twig and run amuck blowing BTC to cash hither and yon.....just nowhere near that point yet with me

later

brad

Yeah, I don't like pyramids. I think I'll stop using them.

And this is why it will be the first priced in halving then implode right afterwards.  There has never been a time in Bitcoin with so many people on the same side of the trade, nor so many delusional retards claiming Bitcoin is 'inevitable' to become the world reserve currency.  If you remember the market at $1000 or subsequent $200, absolutely nobody said this delusional shit then. 

It's clueless noobs like Micgoossens overhyping the pump and dump scam setting up a lot of people for misery in the future.  The only thing certain about Bitcoin is that transaction validators are designed to centralize, giving it zero fundamentals and no reason to exist, and the endgame evolution of any non-fungible shit token is impossible to be anything besides a tool to empower the state in a Chinese social credit score tracking and enslavement grid.  It's also completely impossible for any imaginary shitcoin to defeat metals on the base of Exter's Pyramid.

Well, talking about the old timers.
Jesse Livermore said that once you start counting on the market to do something specific that would allow you to buy a new house, etc, like "it would go to 100K in 18 mo", it always bites you in the proverbial ass. In 2017 NOBODY expected 20K when it was still below 1K in march or april, yet it happened.

I always expect the unexpected from the corn and try to stay humble, so stories of glorious 2021 kind of get under my skin, but I understand the desire.
As a personal confession, I, like some others here (Searing), might be less interested in what happens (price wise) after 2028 or maybe even after 2024.
The next cycle is where my corn account would either succeed or fail.

At some point man can just choose to "Chill in the Caribbean", although I might prefer something more of a temperate climate after being "roasted" for the last few decades.
Just no freaking forest fires, please.

Yeah that inheritance was from my Mum’s Auntie, she wasn’t able to have kids sadly. My parents are both alive & kicking aged 64 & 60. The really big bucks are with them but obviously I wish them to live into their 90’s & beyond.

Hey - am not a merit source Icygreen - but I do have a few saved up for special occasions.

Just popped you some for the wonderfully crafted patches you kindly sent, hopefully you wil soon not only have the best hat on the WO, but legendary status, too...

Respect.

It 's called "Antwerp humor" JJG, nothing bad intentions in it, just a bit, well, egh, Antwerp humor!  

I agree...but the real rubber meeting the road issue is when BTC gets back to the ATH and the whales start dumping a bit for real-life issues...this may actually

accelerate if in a deep recession...

Whales will sell a significant amount of BTC someday...simply because they got it at sub 100 prices likely and what the heck....can't take it with you...

if/when that happens and is 'digested' some..then perhaps 'BTC would pump even more, but to think that someone is gonna keep 100 million in BTC now

when, the whale's hoard, hits 200 million...well after awhile..those sized whales will just cash out as they perceive they need it..rather than worrying about the real world

price issues anymore or hoarding BTC....they will be way past such considerations. However, if I'm correct ( who the hell knows) the BTC price and infrastructure will have

to absorb such 'sell' action and get them whales like a pig through a python ...out the door and then with BTC more distributed, BTC may be more decentralized and less

affected by large whales..but first, the whales, will have to move some of $$$ to real-world $$$ or just continue to HODL..but there is some kinda BTC price that most

whales, IMHO, will break at, if they got BTC as say sub $100....that price could be 15k or 150k I don't know...but it does exist....and quite frankly once done would resolve

a lot of the volitility in BTC/USD price IMHO. But what do I know, I'm just bored and posting on bitcointalk.

Imagine a world with only one currency and that is bitcoins...

wtf is the point of having any coin if you're just going to sell it. fuck that, I'm hodling till they bend the knee
then might lend them a bit if they're very fucking polite

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1195128691099160576