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LOL... i might get lured into selling a bit of btc and buying a beemer,
beeemees are nice, especially if you have some extra discretionary money, and you feel like rewarding yourself.
but not into buying altcoins with btc proceeds.
That would be stupid, all things considered.
You can call me long term bullish. I was bearish when we went down hard from 13.8 and sold a little around there (12-13K interval) while predicting 8k, which you, incidentally, poo-pooed repeatedly. Who was right in that very instance? A rhetorical question.
I am glad that you feel vindicated enough to pat yourself on the back.
Rhetorical or not.By the way, you likely already know that I don't really tend to predict short-term BTC prices, but just complain quite a bit about anyone predicting BTC prices (especially when negative).
Now, my thesis is that 6-12 mo after halving planB's idea would be tested. It would either succeed or fail.
As a scientist, I am used to the falsification of ideas as an essential method of finding the truth (strictly speaking, rather falsification of the hypothesis).
At the moment, I am skeptical that he is right. Why? Because no other market behaves in a predictable fashion.
I think that lack of predictability is part of the reason that I frequently get so pissed off at Hairy mcsmartie-pants, yet he tends to be correct quite a lot with his quasi-reliance on fractal comparisons, even if not precise, well within a decent ballpark of correctness.
However, the chance of planB success is non-zero and I root for him. My portfolio would be thankful as well.
I cannot recall exactly what plan b is saying, but he relies on stock to flow analysis, right? Is he asserting numbers much north of $100k within 6 to 18 months after the halvening?
Let's just assume that the number is much north of $100k within the next couple of years.
Even if planB might end up being a bit off, the "non-zero" is way the fuck higher than a mere "non-zero," and even though I might be having some difficulties narrowing it down and putting a number on it, but it probably is in the 20% plus arena.. which are decently good odds.. and of course HODLers like us will be well advantaged by such bullish scenarios playing out, and many of us do not even need that kind of BTC price performance to be quite well off with our BTC investment.. and even its so far price appreciation.