*incoherent ranting*
Yes. About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.
So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares? It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest. Go figure?
Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year
(which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin? dumb ass.
There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.
There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics. It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns. Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.
I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening. So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it. Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.
We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day. But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.
I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.
Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.
Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.
TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.
