I really like the look of this projected chart, especially the next ‘crash’ which shows the price at still over the current ATH. I can definitely live with that.
The problem with that chart is, the other 4 chars I shared were predicting $80-100k as the top, this one says it can go as high as $500k.
Where is the problem? If this one happens to be true and the others not, I won't be having enough btc to enjoy that $500k. I know I'll be having at least 1, but is it enough?
People will he cashing out to lambos like there is no tomorrow once we go above 50-60k. I find it pretty unrealistic to see it going above $100k in this bull run but who knows... what if...
It seems that you should prepare for both realistically bullish and outlandish scenarios, including the possibility to that we reach $500k in the next cycle.
Based on my knowledge of your BTC holdings, to me, it does seem as if you would be selling too much if you are down to 1 BTC anywhere after (or above) $100k.
On the other hand, it might end up working out for you to sell higher amounts, yet it seems that you gotta figure out what level is actually comfortable for you, even if it seems extreme and unlikely to happen.
There were surely some BTC HODLers who thought that $5k was the absolute top in the 2017 cycle and maybe they had only 1BTC after that, but then they were then paralyzed in selling it above $10k too because they felt that they had already sold their stash or shot their wadd by too much and too early.
My current 'feel' is pretty much inline with planB major thesis.
Unless something happens to break it, I would use his graph as a guideline.
Predicted value is 55K at the halving, then slowly moving about 2-3 fold from there toward next halving.
However, going backwards, btc was "supposed' to be at $3700 when it peaked at almost 20K, so it was roughly 6X predicted.
Therefore, the range of the next ATH is most likely 55k-330K with about 180-190K mid range.
When to sell depends on when the true parabola starts going fast.
TL;DR If planB is correct, we are going to 55K-330K as the next ATH. Midrange target of 150-200K is very appealing, albeit I might sell some at 120K. t
I know that I suck.
I am going to just keep with my plan to sell in the ball park of the same amount that I have been, which is about 1% for every 10% rise or 10% for every 100% rise, which has been working out quite well for me, and I never have to worry about either running out of BTC or attempting to time the top (or the bottom for that matter because some of the sale proceeds will go towards buying back BTC on dips, which seem inevitable, even if they are not really occurring during exponential price runs).
I cannot remember who said (I think marcus of augustus?) that once the BTC price rises 100% in less than a month, then you have a pretty good idea that the blow off top has been reached or is coming soon. I am not sure if I am going to feel inclined to sell a bit more if we reach a "blow off top" of that significance (and even wondering if such a blow off top is going to happen again).
A question could also be how much of a correction we are going to have. One problem with making BIG sales amounts is putting a BIG value on any particular exchange, even if it is just for the period in which the BTC prices are high... sometimes it might feel like you are putting too much value on an exchange... and then making sure that your bank does not overreact, either... and the LARGE amount could get locked up, perhaps? Perhaps? Some of the BIG liquidation avenues seem to be getting more and more draconian with the passage of time, but if you attempt to clarify ahead of time, then could save some pains, perhaps? Perhaps?
