Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 949. (Read 26713191 times)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Haha i'm a 7's man to always doing evertything with a Nr 7 in it lol

I can understand the ambition and wanting everything to be working, but it also seems to me that the more wealth that we accumulate, and if we already know that our investments are performing well (especially something like BTC) we should be able to feel rest assured that the performance of our investment makes up for the lack of the performance of something like strictly cash that would be losing value like a melting ice-cube as the expression goes.

Maybe there is no way to shake you from this way of thinking?. ..

I frequently tend to think that you are too distracted by having a large variety of assets that overall do not perform as well as bitcoin, even though surely you might have some that are temporarily doing better than bitcoin from time to time, but you would have likely had been better off to have had more concentration in bitcoin than the various distraction stocks (or whatever it is) that you own that are likely not performing as well as bitcoin, especially if you are able to zoom out on them..  I know sometimes you engage in bullshit rationalizing in which you might start to compare the 2017 top and then say, we have ONLY gone up 2x or 3x.. which surely is a bunch of bullshit, even though of course there could have been some guys that bought at the 2017 top and jus sat on their hands for the past 7 years, yet I have little sympathy for those kinds of investors.

I just have trouble figuring out how you cannot see ways to really sustainably withdraw from bitcoin, and you even claim to have never been selling your BTC and even asserting that you have more than 20 BTC from time to time, so if you really have been accumulating BTC  through the years, not selling, mostly attempting to avoid buying BTC at price peaks (as you kind of paint your own story), then surely you should already be able to envision a path forward for being able to consistently shave off your BTC without getting worried about them losing dollar value. (and yeah, getting back to measuring value from the 200-WMA, which so far has never failed to go up on a daily basis).

Due to my own backtesting of the 200-WMA, I am even changing some of my own thinking in regards to how sustainable it is to even withdraw BTC at a 10% rate rather than the 4% traditional rate, as long as you valuate your BTC sufficiently, so instead of needing $2 million in value at the 200-WMA valuation, you can get by with $800k in the 200-WMA valuation, which largely means that you could start a sustainably withdrawal of 10% with only 24.2 BTC rather than needing 60.4 BTC at a 4% withdrawal rate.  .. so yeah that is presuming a $6,666 per month withdrawal rate, and if you are more on the conservative side then you would want to have the higher number of BTC rather than the lower number of BTC that I believe to be sustainable...   You can play around with the numbers, here.

Of course, if you have higher monthlies that you need, then you are starting out with differing amounts, but at some point you should be able to figure that you have enough. even if you are not there today, and if you want to stick with the traditional way of valuation because you want to be sure to have enough of a cushion, and if you ONLY have 40 BTC, you still would end up getting to that level by early to mid-2025 based on the 200-WMA continuing to go up, and even if it ends up moving up slower than you expected, there still should be ways to figure out how much of a cushion you need without overdoing it.

Sure, I like to use the $2 million as the entry-level fuck you status, but maybe you feel better with $10 million, but even with that, if you believe that you need a 4% rather than being able to do a 10% withdrawal rate, I think that you are being way too conservative in terms fo what BTC really allows, even if you want to account for taxes and include that into your mix of what you would have left and is it enough..
 

It was merely the claim that there is clearly an amount that is enough and even more than enough, because there is enough of a built in cushion.. I mean if you conclude that you need to have more than 60 BTC, but you have 160 BTC, then you have a lot of room to play with, and it may be a bit abstract, but you could even say to yourself that you want to have 40 BTC by 2044 (20 years from now), but right now you already have more than 80 BTC, so maybe you would already create a system in which you are able to spend a certain amount of BTC every year so that you would end up spending 30 BTC over the next 20 years so you would already build in a system that would predict that you would still have 50 BTC in 20 years, so you still end up with a cushion..   Maybe it does not make a lot of sense to think about these matters in terms of BTC, even though it does seem that we can project out these kinds of matters that both tell us how much we can spend that might already be structured around some somewhat abstract goals that we might have.

Of course, the 160 BTC example gives you even more flexibility, and even 5 years ago, we may well would have thought that 160 BTC is not enough, and we would have had need 2x or 3x that amount in order to really feel comfortable, so the same is continuing to be true in regards to lesser and lesser needs to have as large of a BTC stash in order to really start to feel that we have enough and/or more than enough.


Yeah, but with bitcoin, you would not need to spend the same amount each year, and you could spend a lesser amount each year.. and draw a percentage of it every year rather than a strict amount. That is why you could be spending in percentages, rather than just 1 BTC per year, and that is part of the power of bitcoins ongoing impressively powerful CAGR that is likely not going to be getting substantially enough worse in order to stop you from likely being able to set your sustainable withdrawal rate at 10%, and still be able to do quite well, even with ONLY 20 BTC. ... ..

So even with a 10% withdrawal rate, that would allow a monthly withdrawal of 0.166667 BTC and sure that monthly withdrawal amount is going to go down because the balance goes down, but it seems more than sustainable in terms that the whole value of the BTC holdings is likely going to continue to gain in price, even with a 10% withdrawal rate.  I back tested it.. and also you can ongoingly watch the value of the 200-WMA to make sure that it is remaining sustainable.

It seems to me whether you are over 70 or under 50, you can still spend 10% per year from BTC and it is likely sustainable forever. Of course, you might want to be a bit more conservative if you are worried about it, and of course guys are responsible for figuring out and following their own formulas in regards to how much they think they need and what rate of withdrawal they need, but the withdrawal amount is not a strict amount like you are suggesting to be dipping into your principle.. instead of figuring out a way to perpetually withdraw at a rate that is less than the amount that the BTC is appreciating in value.

You can back test it if you like. .. but you have to start with the right premises and valuating your stash based on the 200-WMA in terms of figuring out your budget, and right now 20 BTC is ONLY worth $663k according to the 200-WMa, and 5 years ago, you would have had needed 191 BTC to be at the equivalent 200WMA valuation, and so if you had spent 191 BTC at 10% per year, right now you would still have around 75.3 BTC, so you would have had kept your value by spending 10% per year, and if you had done the max 10% withdrawal for that whole time, you would have had withdrawn close to $2 million in value during that time... and your remaining stash BTC would be even more valuable (in terms of dollars) than they were when you started.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Basically, on a norm looking directly to the sun can damage the optical lens of the eyes but the solar eclipse helped in having a partial view of the sun.

In Kano state Nigeria, the heat intensity was on a high temperature but when the solar eclipse happened, the heat reduced, that is to say the eclipse have helped residents in the area within the interval it lasted. Lol

The solar eclipse to me seems like a sign that Bitcoin is warming up for a milestone considering it's movement in price yesterday, just an assumption anyway

Interesting to see yesterdays pump with such low inflows to the ETFs (one of the lowest so far?) at the same time GBTC dumping hard.
Although, most of the pump happened in the EU hours.

I remember the last total eclipse i've seen 30 years ago. It was in early summer and the most spooky thing was the silence, when the birds stopped singing and the bees stopped flying.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Borrow against your bitcoin, no capital gains tax either. That is how rich people do it I am reading. Now I would not trust some random new startup to facilitate this but fine against IBIT in your brokerage account.

my phone number is

xxx xx7-777x

so I always have four sevens

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Since i engaged in merits numerology tonight...phil is pretty close to 7777 as number 7 is considered "lucky" in the West.
Maybe he can get to 7777 (from 7669) by halving?
Could be a nice "trick"  

This is the way I see it too.

It makes no sense to never sell any of your Bitcoin.

What I do is sell relatively small and very specific amounts, only when necessary, to buy specific things. Never bulk sells to keep large amounts of fiat in the bank.

The great thing about Bitcoin is that the growth rate of the remaining coins always exceeds the amount lost because of the sells. So, wealth-wise, my stash still keeps growing, while I enjoy the benefits.

It's a win-win situation. Simple, proven, effective, repeatable. What more could one ask for?

 Spending from  a 20 btc stash is okay if you are over 70 and have other income. One coin a year till you are ninety or .85 coin a year spending those amounts either way should work.

Especially if you don’t care about descendants.

Spending from a 20 btc stash if you are under 50 needs to be very small spends under 0.5 a year would be good.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Yea...right.

I will answer tangentially, first (before I forget): @JJG...check it out-your merits are in perfect digital format right now: 10101, kind of rare, take a snapshot or something.
EDIT: too bad...one more and it is out of balance already.

I don't like to spend btc..call me a tight-fisted hodler.
In case of emergency, sure, no prob, but renovation?
yikes.

Yes, I am definitely cash poor because I don't like having un-invested cash laying around, and that includes the bank(s) that pay nothing vs money market paying 5.3% on cash.
Almost everything is invested, one way or another, but, typically, liquid (not some private equity or CD or stupid "timeshares").

Jimbo about 160 btc. What guy? I did not pay attention, I guess.
I am not sure I followed that line of reasoning.

Hahahahaha

It probably helped your eyes too.. to be looking directly at the sun.

I heard that looking directly at the sun is not good for your eyes, but it there happens to be clouds and part of a moon in front of it, then it must not be as bad for your peepers.


That is the key, Biodom..

You suggest that you don't care about the key, and the key is ONLY selling a small amount, and it does not matter.  If you sell 5% to 10% of your 20 bitcoin stash (which is $200k to $400k), you still have 18 or 19 BTC left, so when BTC reaches $5 million or whatever your other selling point, you are still in a pretty damned good place with $90 million or $95 million remaining in your stash.. and yeah there are all kinds of variables in regards to the benefits and advantages of incrementalist BTC stash management practices.


It still gets back to how much you sold, and why.


Fuck descendants.. and also fuck all or nothing thinking.

Those ideas about never selling any of your bitcoin do not seem practical or reasonable for an overwhelming majority of normies  (that is normal people).

Even if we might back off of the idea that there could be some responsible ways to pass on your wealth, it still does not seem to make sense unless you ar able to put it into some kind of a plan or a trust or something, and maybe that is even difficult to design in a way that would inspire confidence that your dead hands' passing down the coins would be honored in ways that you might circumscribe..

I am not totally against the idea of passing down coins, even though the way I came out might seem a bit strongly phrased.


Good idea.  Don't be hanging onto those 20 BTC forever.


Does not seem like a BIG dilema to me, unless you are selling too many BTC too soon, and if you have not accumulated enough BTC..

Sure, if you had not accumulated enough BTC, then you should not be selling too many of them too soon.

ONLY you can decide how many BTC is enough or too much, and if you are having dilemmas about it, then you likely have not quite reached that state yet.. yet I cannot see how anyone but yourself would be able to help you to figure out that part of the puzzle, in regards to how much is enough.. even though surely I attempt to help with my sustainable withdrawal ideas, even though you still have to reach your own conclusions in regards to how many coins is enough (or too much.. by the way, some folks have psychological problems in that they have little to no idea how to figure out how much is enough and/or too much.. to me, that seems to be a psychological state).


hahahaha

I had to look up HELOC..

Home equity line of credit...

O.k.. so you are suggesting the possibility that you are equity rich, but cash poor.. and it seems that bitcoin can resolve that problem, way the fuck better than halving property (and fuck HELOC, they are not necessary, even though they are optional), yet my thinking still is to make sure that you get to a status of over accumulation before you start to sell your BTC.

A few months ago, Jimbo mentioned that a guy might have something in the ballpark of 160 BTC, and you think that would be enough for most guys in terms of how much cash do you need each month? 160 BTC would give you plenty..

So yeah, if you don't have 160 BTC and you ONLY have 20 BTC, then yeah, maybe your not quite at a state of overaccumulation where you can just regularly shave some off.. whether it is 4%, 6%, 10% or some other amount that you might deem to be reasonable to both sustain your lifestyle, supplement your other flows of cash and also your seeming concerns about having to account for tax burdens of whatever BTC ends up getting sold.


Exactamente... BTC has such a great CAGR (compound annual growth rate) that you can easily shave off high amounts and still end up with more value in BTC, including surely no problem spending your other sources of income first.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

On the contrary. Hodling shitcoins works extremely well...

.....for the scam artists who make/fork them because there are endless people out there who believe in their crap
and think BTC is too expensive.

"FuckTwatCoinTheSecondWithAPoopMonkeyFace will go to 70K as well, right? I bought 10 trillion for $0.0000000000000001 each.
Only 84 billion trillion are going to be issued this month."

Fuck shitcoins..

HODL does not work for that shitcoin..

Stop trying to suggest that bitcoin is similar to a shitcoin. .

ridiculous.



There is no rhyming requirement in a haiku.. but surely sometimes they contain rhymes, as a kind of bonus.


You speak with profundity BHC, and your statement is exactamentally true..

We (all of us in these here parts) should not have to tolerate subliminal messages suggesting shitcoins - as if the shitcoins were anything except a short-term gamble... .. and yeah, the mere fact that an overwhelming majority of them are affinity scamming bitcoin, we (likely the whole world) should employ zero tolerance to their promotion.


Fair enough.. .. we cannot consider a "true" artist, even if perhaps in their budding stages to be burdened by actually having to follow rules.


Gosh....