Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 946. (Read 26713218 times)
April 10, 2024, 12:29:46 AM
April 10, 2024, 12:08:07 AM
@JJG: I know that you just use $6.66K as an example, but that hardly amounts to much in US...basic level living and not even on the two coasts.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/
$6,666 per month is $80k per year. Of course, I am using that as a kind of entry-level, and I might have to change it later, but I think that it is good enough for now. Prior to March 2020, I was using $3,333, which would have been $40k per year, so I doubled it, and yeah, maybe the $40k was also low, but it is somewhat considered what we used to aspire to become.. millionnaire status, and yeah now millionaire status is $2million, but I think it would be too crazy and out of touch to start to try to suggest that average normies should conclude that the minimum they need is $10 million status.
Another thing is that anyone who is getting largely passive income (absent just keeping track of the accounting) should consider that to be quite liberating as compared to having to maintain a job, yeah sure anyone who does not have a job is going to have more time to spend money, but merely having more time does not necessarily mean that the person has to spend more money, so they should be able to get some kind of grasp if they had an $70k to $80k level job at the time of pulling the fuck you lever, then they already know how to live on $70k to $80k, and yeah if they feel that they need more of a cushion than they can do that... even though surely I think that BTC's historical CAGR and likely continued CAGR is way more liberating than some folks might assume, especially if they measure it in reasonable ways (such as using the 200 WMA - rather than getting too much distracted into the noise of greatly volatile BTC spot prices - even though surely they will be selling whatever their BTC at s[pot price, but that is also likely to be liberating since they are likely going to have cushions beyond what preferably would be their 200-WMA value measuring stick).
Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.
Yeah, if you have a higher starting point, then do what you like.
There are also guys who think that they are rich as fuck with ONLY 1/10th the amount which under traditional systems would be a $200k principle and a $666 monthly withdrawal authorization (and yeah with bitcoin they can achieve that $666 per month with even lower levels of principle like I mentioned either $80k if using 10% per year withdrawal rate and $67k if using a 12% withdrawal rate.
Come on Biodom, go with the flow, and stop quibbling about those kinds of discretionary matters that guys should be able to figure out, and yeah, I don't know what your numbers are, but you may well be causing your lil selfie to work way more years than you need to because you neither recognize/appreciate the power of bitcoin's CAGR and/or its likelihood of continuing to provide such power, even if you are trying to keep some reasonable level of cushion.. . .and yeah, I am already starting to argue that 20-ish BTC is enough to get to fuck you status.. which has to feel good for some folks, but they still have to figure out how to properly calculate it.. and subsequently how to manage their withdrawals including that if they might be nervous they might ease into their withdraws since there is going to be potential variance in how much they would be able to withdraw that goes beyond their needs in times that BTC's spot price is way above the 200-WMA, and there might be preferences (but not necessarily mandatory) of more frugality once the BTC price is below 25% above the 200-WMA.
So spending btc may happen for us.
Don't kid yourself. You don't hardly have any BTC to spend because you have been spending it all along.
Sure, I am not going to blame you now for wanting to spend it, since you should already be in the spending phase of your life... so you likely just have to figure out which things to spend first and why, and likely if you have other sources, of income that are sufficient, then you save the BTC for the last (or the least of your spending). In other words, it is way the fuck better to be getting your $2k per month from your 401k then to draw if from bitcoin.. by the way $2k per month is about a $600k 401k (if you are spending around 4%), adnd cif you spend that at around 4%, you should be alble to spend that forever, even though the dollar is going to be worth less and less and less, but your principle should largely stay at or more $600k so that you can continue to spend $2k per month.
In regards to drawing on bitcoin, there are way more creative ways to be able to draw more as long as you calculate it right, and you should be able to draw 10% to 12% and to still more than maintain its dollar value. ... but yeah, sure you have to get it up to a certain amount, so I don't want to give financial advices but $600k in bitcoin (valued at its 200-WMA valuation) is probably more than 4x more power than the same investment in traditional investments. ..
Of course, you have to figure out what you want to do an how you want to allocate to make sure your bitcoin are in such a good state, if all that you need is $2k per month income off of BTC, then right now likely could have right around 7 BTC as your starting point for that.. which would be a 12% withdrawal rate.. so long as the BTC price is at least 25% higher than the 200WMA. If the BTC spot price is at lower amounts then either you do not withdraw or you withdraw at a lower rate as I describe in my sustainable withdrawal tool. powered by bitmover.. of course, you are still responsible for figuring out the details and the applicability of how to apply these kinds of ideas to youor situation.
April 10, 2024, 12:01:14 AM
April 09, 2024, 11:26:08 PM
Takes one to know one.
So, be decent and don't swear,
Or you'll be Bat-slapped!
So, be decent and don't swear,
Or you'll be Bat-slapped!
and gfy....you ARE a pretentious cunt 
hahahahahahaTakes one to know one.
I blame toxicmoxic for the devolution of the above interaction..
a decent recovery on the weekly candle has bitcoin well positioned for continuation of the bullish trend with the halving a few less than two weeks away
FTFY.
You will thank me later, when you may well end up realizing the answer to: "why is everything happening sooner than expected?"
Wow!! This is really encouraging, I think there's more to this sentence it isn't just an ordinary one and i look. forward to be among the people that will thank you later.
April 09, 2024, 11:01:13 PM
April 09, 2024, 10:24:14 PM
Only 10 days left.
La la la la la la la.
IYKYK.
#haiquickie
Meh LaLaLand
That was not my cup of tea…
Not for haiku use
It's not La La Land!
Just a coiner's excitement.
IYKYK.
#replyku
April 09, 2024, 09:01:22 PM
April 09, 2024, 08:04:22 PM
@JJG: I know that you just use $6.66K as an example, but that hardly amounts to much in US...basic level living and not even on the two coasts.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/
Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/
Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.
THANK YOU FOR POINTING OUT THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.
If middle class has five tiers
1 highest middle class
2
3
4
5 lowest middle class
I am a 3 or a 4.
My wife and I take home 7.3k in pension monthly it is good money, rising costs eat into it.
If we want to take home 10k monthly she could make her 401k an annuity.
But the scale of homes and taxes where I live are costly.
We will likely move to a nicer place in a different state.
I could lower my taxes by 1000 a month get a bigger house and have enough left over money to buy a btc maybe 2.
We are older 67 and 68
her lungs were covid damaged
I have diabetes. So we would like to spend the next 5,10,15 years left having fun.
So spending btc may happen for us.
April 09, 2024, 08:01:25 PM
April 09, 2024, 07:40:42 PM
. April 09, 2024, 07:01:17 PM
April 09, 2024, 06:58:16 PM
@JJG: I know that you just use $6.66K as an example, but that hardly amounts to much in US...basic level living and not even on the two coasts.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/
Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.
A median household income in US is 74.6K/year.
https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-us-income/
Of course, when used as an add-on, it would provide a boost, but i don't think many on WO would agree that it is a sweet deal after many years of ups and downs.
April 09, 2024, 06:47:49 PM
I was thinking about the following hypothetical the other day:
Let's assume that bitcoin goes to 100-300K (let's say, 200K average) this cycle and somewhere along the line you sell a substantial % to invest in property, luxuries, etc ( whichever you choose).
In 10 years afterwards, bitcoin goes to 5 mil, which means that you only "captured" just 4% of the potential value.
How would you feel about it? I guess, it would also depend on the remainder (that you didn't sell), but still.
Personally, I know that years later, I am not particularly fond of my decisions to sell AMZN, AAPL and TSLA early, even though I made very nice gains on them.
Sometimes, I consider these occurancies as my investment follies, but, again, you cannot be 100% efficient.
Of course, it is possible to NEVER sell btc and, basically, put this decision on the shoulders of descendants, but you cannot guarantee that they would be wise about it, right?
At least, I can't.
At some point, I would have to start to spend btc and this point is coming relatively soon.
Alas, to spend even a relatively small amount of btc on things like kitchen remodeling causes a bit of mixed feelings on my part as I contemplate the scenarios described above.
That could be one expensive kitchen 5-10 years down the road.
Withdrawals from IRA are taxable and I put all my stables back into the market during 2023.
I would probably do a mix of "things", but don't want to take on HELOC or anything like this.
Decisions, decisions...
Let's assume that bitcoin goes to 100-300K (let's say, 200K average) this cycle and somewhere along the line you sell a substantial % to invest in property, luxuries, etc ( whichever you choose).
In 10 years afterwards, bitcoin goes to 5 mil, which means that you only "captured" just 4% of the potential value.
How would you feel about it? I guess, it would also depend on the remainder (that you didn't sell), but still.
Personally, I know that years later, I am not particularly fond of my decisions to sell AMZN, AAPL and TSLA early, even though I made very nice gains on them.
Sometimes, I consider these occurancies as my investment follies, but, again, you cannot be 100% efficient.
Of course, it is possible to NEVER sell btc and, basically, put this decision on the shoulders of descendants, but you cannot guarantee that they would be wise about it, right?
At least, I can't.
At some point, I would have to start to spend btc and this point is coming relatively soon.
Alas, to spend even a relatively small amount of btc on things like kitchen remodeling causes a bit of mixed feelings on my part as I contemplate the scenarios described above.
That could be one expensive kitchen 5-10 years down the road.
Withdrawals from IRA are taxable and I put all my stables back into the market during 2023.
I would probably do a mix of "things", but don't want to take on HELOC or anything like this.
Decisions, decisions...
Read/listen to the book 'Die with Zero' - Bill Perkins. Working for money (or in our case, waiting for Bitcoin to go up) is a trade-off against your only real asset your life time.
Memories and experiences you have earlier in your life have greater value than the ones you have later because of the benefits they give after you have had them. Sharing and using, wisdom and memories both have significant value to your overall life happiness. (I think travel experiences often give great returns.).
Think about your grandparents, as you grow older, you will end up wanting less and are happy to stay at home, in fact, health issues mean you probably can't travel easily anymore, and this is when those earlier 'experience' investments in your life reach maturity. Bizarrely, living in the moment is an investment in your future. So the earlier you have these experiences the greater the return.
Dying with zero doesn't mean forgetting about looking after dependents or risking running out of money, but it helped me think about getting the correct balance between living in the moment and thinking longer term.
In the case of Bitcoin, for me it was about setting very ambitious objectives about the things I wanted (property, cars etc, but whatever is reasonable to you with your current BTC holding) , and when Bitcoin was at a sufficient price, and I would still have at least 50% of my BTC remaining, I pulled the trigger. (actually, my trigger price was $42k, in the last bull cycle, and I part-exited at $55K, and paid all the tax due.)
But I always live by, "Never have no Bitcoin."
Of course, you have to choose for yourself how many bitcoin to sell, but it does seem that you are likely selling way too many bitcoin too soon.. .especially since you caould probably get to a certain stash size and then just sell 10% per year forever and never run out and also never have fewer dollar value in terms of what the BTC is worth..
So to me it seems better to get to a certain level of BTC and then if you are happy with that quantity, then go into a perpetual cycle of celling 10% per year, and sure maybe you could even do 1% per month (which would be 12% per year) if you want it to be a round number, and you will probably still be o.k.. with a bitcoin stash that is forever increasing in terms of its dollar amount.
So then the question would be how much value do you need in bitcoin in order to start? Depends on how much monthly salary that you want.. so if you go with 12% per year then $667k would be enough which is merely 20.1 BTC right now.. which pretty much perpetually get you $6,666 per month of income. Calculate with this.
I think that is much better than cashing out too many BTC too soon.. especially the best asset known to mankind... so you probably fucked up by selling so many.,. .. but hey whatever you do you.
You can back test it if you like. .. but you have to start with the right premises and valuating your stash based on the 200-WMA in terms of figuring out your budget, and right now 20 BTC is ONLY worth $663k according to the 200-WMa, and 5 years ago, you would have had needed 191 BTC to be at the equivalent 200WMA valuation, and so if you had spent 191 BTC at 10% per year, right now you would still have around 75.3 BTC, so you would have had kept your value by spending 10% per year, and if you had done the max 10% withdrawal for that whole time, you would have had withdrawn close to $2 million in value during that time... and your remaining stash BTC would be even more valuable (in terms of dollars) than they were when you started.
When I looked at the past data I came up taking 20-25% in a bull year for 4yr future period. So sort of in that 4-6%/yr range. The main reason I went this way is because of the variance in % withdrawal required when you do it annually(or monthly etc) You could end up withdrawing more, like closer to 8-9%/yr. I’m still playing around with my data tho. Stash size is a consideration for sure though ;-) For sure you have to get to a certain stash size prior to starting.. and using the 200-WMA to figure out your values.. so for sure I am thinking 10% to 12% is actually sustainable once you get to a large enough stash size.. that you are comfortable.. .. 12% withdrawal would require at least a 20.1 BTC stash size which would be a $6,666 per month target withdrawal rate... nothing wrong with starting out more conservative to make sure and also to be careful withdrawing as much if the BTC price starts to drop below 25% above the 200-WMA.. As I attempt to outline some parameters in my sustainable withdrawal tool powered by bitmover.
April 09, 2024, 06:01:14 PM
April 09, 2024, 05:18:41 PM
April 09, 2024, 05:01:14 PM
April 09, 2024, 04:01:16 PM
April 09, 2024, 03:01:14 PM
April 09, 2024, 03:00:36 PM
Sine (red) with zero crossings at the halvings, superimposed on a rolling power regression (yellow)
Pretty nice, taking into account phase jitter
There'sgold in them thar hills signal under all the noise
Pretty nice, taking into account phase jitter
There's
April 09, 2024, 02:38:13 PM
I was thinking about the following hypothetical the other day:
Let's assume that bitcoin goes to 100-300K (let's say, 200K average) this cycle and somewhere along the line you sell a substantial % to invest in property, luxuries, etc ( whichever you choose).
In 10 years afterwards, bitcoin goes to 5 mil, which means that you only "captured" just 4% of the potential value.
How would you feel about it? I guess, it would also depend on the remainder (that you didn't sell), but still.
Personally, I know that years later, I am not particularly fond of my decisions to sell AMZN, AAPL and TSLA early, even though I made very nice gains on them.
Sometimes, I consider these occurancies as my investment follies, but, again, you cannot be 100% efficient.
Of course, it is possible to NEVER sell btc and, basically, put this decision on the shoulders of descendants, but you cannot guarantee that they would be wise about it, right?
At least, I can't.
At some point, I would have to start to spend btc and this point is coming relatively soon.
Alas, to spend even a relatively small amount of btc on things like kitchen remodeling causes a bit of mixed feelings on my part as I contemplate the scenarios described above.
That could be one expensive kitchen 5-10 years down the road.
Withdrawals from IRA are taxable and I put all my stables back into the market during 2023.
I would probably do a mix of "things", but don't want to take on HELOC or anything like this.
Decisions, decisions...
Let's assume that bitcoin goes to 100-300K (let's say, 200K average) this cycle and somewhere along the line you sell a substantial % to invest in property, luxuries, etc ( whichever you choose).
In 10 years afterwards, bitcoin goes to 5 mil, which means that you only "captured" just 4% of the potential value.
How would you feel about it? I guess, it would also depend on the remainder (that you didn't sell), but still.
Personally, I know that years later, I am not particularly fond of my decisions to sell AMZN, AAPL and TSLA early, even though I made very nice gains on them.
Sometimes, I consider these occurancies as my investment follies, but, again, you cannot be 100% efficient.
Of course, it is possible to NEVER sell btc and, basically, put this decision on the shoulders of descendants, but you cannot guarantee that they would be wise about it, right?
At least, I can't.
At some point, I would have to start to spend btc and this point is coming relatively soon.
Alas, to spend even a relatively small amount of btc on things like kitchen remodeling causes a bit of mixed feelings on my part as I contemplate the scenarios described above.
That could be one expensive kitchen 5-10 years down the road.
Withdrawals from IRA are taxable and I put all my stables back into the market during 2023.
I would probably do a mix of "things", but don't want to take on HELOC or anything like this.
Decisions, decisions...
Borrow against your bitcoin, no capital gains tax either. That is how rich people do it I am reading. Now I would not trust some random new startup to facilitate this but fine against IBIT in your brokerage account.
sounds like a not-your-keys-not-your-coins situation to me...
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