Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9573. (Read 26608818 times)

so every time binance make maintenance, price changes a lot. I really think that binance is a big player and have a connection with this dump

TR: China does not want to directly intervene - moderates in BJ have been holding the hawks in check. But last week, even the moderates started to indicate it was going to far. But the trap is set for BJ intervention, if it is direct, overt and very violent, the damage will be irrepairable with capital and business flight to SG.

PK: I'm not surprised by that. If it gets violent bye bye hk. It's as good as destroyed

TR: it is now - writing is on the wall - whether it is this week or next year, hk is gone

PK: Yeah true there's no real coming back from this wrt outsiders

ST: Once they declare that the two systems approach is not working and is over, the problem will be largely resolved. At the moment they cannot do anything about the protesters because they are outside of Chinese jurisdication. China has to leave it to Hong Kong to deal with. Declaring an end to the two systems approach may be dramatic but it does not need to be violent. Once the two systems is dead the Chinese can pass laws on extradiction and removal and that should freak out anyone in Hong Kong.

Who is going to protest once they understand they are subject to the Chinese justice system.

Plenty of Chinese cities will be champing at the bit to get a slice of the Hong Kong action. Certainly a lot of western businesses will decamp to Singapore but that may be seen as a small price to pay compared to ongoing humiliation.

TR: Actually a declaration of the end of the 1 country 2 system policy is extremely complex and the implications would result in the immediate change of status for banks etc in the US and EU, would create a political crisis in TW and flatten the HK economy overnight.

And no, HK is the primary conduit for capital movement and regulation for the PBOC. SH is the largest "base" for foreign HQ's in China only behind HK (20% vs 80%) and unless the movement of funds laws for foreign companies changes, these would need to move to SG.

Many SOE's are listed in HK to allow access to USD and easier capital movements as well as international bond markets. This would dry up overnight

US government is obligated to change the status of HK if the 2 system policy is changed before 2047 which would make the current trade war (it's not a trade war, but hell the tweeter in Chief knows all right) look like a macroeconomic nirvana

In other words, no, there is no solution in declaring the 2 system 1 country setup dead unless you have all the contingency plans in place, invade TW overnight and no longer need to do business with US or its allies

ST: That is just law. Laws get changed all the time. China marching in with troops will have exactly the same effect but with far more damage.

TR: no - you are missing the point - it is not just law but a whole shake up of the underlying business structure for SOE's in China and how they are able to transact business

ST: The moment Chinese authorities enter the 2 systems model is a dead duck. I am not missing the point. Law is just words.

TR: Which is why are desperately looking for back door methods to restore control

ST: There are no back door methods

If Hong Kong authorities lose control the 2 system model is dead.
Even now it is falling apart as people are claiming Chinese agents in the HK police.
The danger for China is that if they don’t the 2 system model now it may become permanent.
End

I think there is a lot of confusion because people assumed that in 2047 China would become like Hong Kong when the reverse is much more likely.

ST: The difficulty for China is that the 2 system model prevents them from controlling what is happening. They are dependent on HK controlling HK locals and that is clearly not working. The HK police are likely to be stuck chasing kids around the metro indefinitely. That China tried to get help from the triads indicates how little control they can exert. The situation is likely to get uglier and uglier until the sovereign power exerts its power and takes control of its territory.

Of course China could just cede its claim to Hong Kong. That is the best option.

The protesters don’t seem to understand that by demonstrating the impotence of the HK authorities they are demonstrating that the 2 system model is dead.
A government that cannot exert control is a dead duck and we know the reason why HK cannot exert control is because it is not a real government. It is a fake government and it is falling apart right now.

In the end China has no choice. If the HK government cannot impose its authority China will have to. Which of course is going to be a rude shock for lots of people who have assumed that an incoherent model of government is sustainable under pressure.

TR: Lets just see - I can't say what I know because it exposes who I talk to. I am sure that pressure is mounting for HK to end this, but I also know that the implications of direct involvement in the resolution of the situation is well known to many prominent decision makers.
To some extent you are seeing the response with "foreign power behind the unrest" meme that is circulating. Lets see how this plays out - like I said - they are looking at back door methods to restore control...

so every time binance make maintenance, price changes a lot. I really think that binance is a big player and have a connection with this dump

Binance was offline during the crash under $10 000 as you can read in my post above (and now Binance has reopened, BTC is back above $10 000) so it's unlikely to be the right explanation.

This am I also saw this Twitter thread, where someone stated some gang members, stil at large, are trying to cash out sending clips of 100 BTC to binance:

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1161703702270365696?s=20

I would be very happy it that were true.
I have a fraction of my btc hoard loaned out to celsius.network at 4.6% annual interest,
Paid weekly in btc
I sell it as soon as I get it, since I'm retired (thanks solely to btc).

One possible factor floating around the crypto sphere this morning is a Chinese Ponzi scam that resulted in the loss of a substantial sum of Bitcoin. Founding partner at Primitive Crypto, Dovey Wan, has been busy on twitter today with news that PLUS Token team members have been arrested.

The likelihood of this having any impact on wider Bitcoin and crypto markets is still being debated. The story is not even being reported outside of China at the moment and Wan appears to be the only source of information aside from a from a six week old SCMP story.

Founding partner at Adamant Capital, Tuur Demeester, has hinted that the sums involved could have wider implications on markets;


“If true, we’re talking about a 200,000 BTC heist here… +1% of circulating supply, worth over $2 billion today.”

I couldn’t find the chat but starting a few days ago, Chinese traders are saying someone has been dumping 100BTC non-stop on Binance, will post here once I find the chat detail.

Which i suspected related to PlusToken as well

never gonna see sub $10k prices again. 

 

never gonna see sub $10k prices again. 

 

https://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2018/08/this-week-in-economic-history-nixon.html

August 15, 1971 / Aug-15-2019

Lets go 10,000 BTCitcoin

On August 15, 1971, President Richard Nixon closed the gold window to foreign countries, meaning they no longer could exchange dollars for gold.

The Federal Reserve had printed so much money that there was
a run on gold at the Treasury by foreign central banks. (Americans at the time couldn't own gold thanks to a ban by Franklin Delano Rosevelt.)

The printing of money also caused accelerating price inflation in the United States that Nixon tried to battle. But instead of putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to stop printing money, on the same day he closed the gold window, he also imposed a wage and price freeze.