So we are on pace to soon be testing the very low 9ks for the third time in a month.
I dont see any special reason why 9k will hold. I want to see some serious volume to convince me otherwise.
We can go to 7-8k and easily still consider ourselves to be in a very bullish scenario. We all remember how 2015 gave away big gains several times only to finish the year very strong.
Tons of support around 8k. If we make it that low and get some mega volume along with a green dildo then I think we set ourselves up nicely for a beautiful finish to 2019.
A huge volume spike would sure be nice. But remember, accumulation doesn’t show volume spikes.
2015 gave us a nice example of such. The year in hindsight to me was an accumulation year for the first 10 months.
The June-July 2015 mini bull run peaked on July 12 and had big daily volume on July 10, 12, and 13.
All gains from this run were given back and the down trend did not stop till August 25. August 24 and 25 had massive volume and signaled the selling was over.
2015 to me was characterized as a large accumulation period with two mini bull runs that gave up most of their gains. 2019 did a lot of sideways and then a large bull run that we just witnessed peak on Jun 26. I still think its likely 2019 is an accumulation year just like 2015 and instead of 2 runs giving up a lot of their gains we seem to have consolidated it into 1 large run that hopefully wont give up all, but has already given up much of its gains.
Exacerbating circumstances warping it into one large run would imo be the perfect storm of stockboyz hitting all time highs despite all the economic fuckery we are living in, Trump jawboning the Fed into first ending rate hikes and quantitative tightening, following up that feat by jawboning the Fed into cutting rates, the Trade War shitstorm, the devaluing of the Yuan, the NYAG Tether crusade making Bitcoin a safe haven from sketchy stablecoins, the Libra hype(lets be honest that was crack cocaine for newbs) the demise of shitcoins, the humiliation of CSW, and last but not least frontrunning what happened in 2015.
TLDR: I think we are due for some moderate to serious mean reverting based on the 2015 fractal. Good news is a lot of it has already happened, but Im convinced its not over and a mega volume day would go a long way to change my mind.