I believe that bitcoin is not really on a calendar year pattern, even though frequently guys try to find some correlation patterns therein. They are loosely correlated at best, and could even be somewhat random.
maybe, but many random stuff like this helped me to predict btc bottom at 3100/3200 before it happened.
Common sense should tell you as the market cap increases, any type of market cycle would have to lengthen as well, leaving you with no possible correlation to any specific months. Looking at a log chart, the current rise is also WAY WAY too soon after the last rise to be legitimate. The Chinese mining monopoly shitters artificially rigged it up from $4k to where it is now in the least aggregate market moves ever seen. I wonder if they're prepared for the fact that it's not possible for this manipulation to stick.
Maybe I was starting to like you because you seemed to have been agreeing with me, then you went into tin-foil hat landia.
Sure, you are likely correct that marketcap increases in bitcoin is likely going to put some pressures upon bitcoin's pump cycles to increase; however, there is also a kind of syncronization of cycles with halvenings and the likely effects of such halvenings.
Accordingly, rather than your speculation that manipulation is causing the front running of the hypecycle, there remains a plausible alternative explanation that the mere learning about bitcoin and the knowledge about bitcoin (and its cycles) is contributing to some tendencies to attempt to front run the effects of the halvening.
I would not call that manipulation as much is it is likely a free market phenomenon within the free market to attempt to push the price in the direction of least resistance for as long as you can get away with it. Yeah, technically, that is manipulation, but bitcoin's avenues of getting in and getting out, are also increasing on an ongoing basis, so it becomes harder and harder to actually manipulate in the sense that you are attempting to imply. Yes, manipulation exists somewhat because bitcoin remains a lot smaller than other markets in which some of the BIGGER players tend to operate, so they are able to successfully move bitcoins price a lot more with the same amount of capital that they might have attempted to move in traditional and BIGGER markets with a lot less movement in the price with that same amount of capital. So, yeah, even if they are able to move bitcoin's price with less capital, there are also manipulator attempters, in bitcoin, on the opposite side of those manipulation attempts, so they may be successful and they may not.. they might get manipulation cooperation and they might not.
So, yeah, when the manipulators are on the same page in bitcoin in terms of the price direction that they are pushing, then they are going to experience more success to to move the bitcoin price faster and further and with smaller amounts of capital, but at some point, sides switch and battles ensue regarding which way is the next leg in which the bitcoin price should move. Seems like we are in one of those phases of bitcoin in the past month or more and a bit of a disagreement about whether BTC's price should go up or down. Could take a bit longer to work this out, but no fucking way is it a reasonable assertion to suggest this whole bitcoin market is manipulated or able to be manipulated on a longer term scale when the whales who are making the manipulation attempts do not always agree about price direction, sometimes they do agree and the price is allowed to move in a commonly agreed to direction, but also sometimes some of them lose control over being able to stop it from going way passed where they’ll wanted it to go.