During the winter of 2019 I was mentally preparing for 10K sometime around Dec 2020. I wouldn't give even a 1% chance to stay above 10K in the Summer of this year. For >20K It didn't even cross my mind it was possible this year. But here we are - nearly 12K for the 3rd or 4th time this Summer. With that pace we will be >20K way too soon than most of us expected.
Actually, I do something very similar in that I create very conservative expectations; however, even though my tentative cash projections used to use 6% as a kind of per year increase in value of BTC, I upped that to 12%. I am perfectly fine with moving back to 6% or even lower, but I just tentatively conclude that 12% is more realistic (even though it is still likely to be really conservative).. but even if BTC were to perform really conservatively over the coming years (which does not seem too likely), it is still a very great bet, not only for the price appreciation that she has already provided but also for the "potential of a profit" that might not end up being realized in the real world.
I've read multiple times by newbies in this thread that the 2017 run can not be repeated because then Bitcoin was in the news all over the world and that caused the run.
Yeah, surely people love explanations for things, and they try to make bitcoin out to be some kind of widely known asset. Fuck those stories... people don't know shit about bitcoin because if they did they would take a bit of a stake in it. Furthermore, maybe a decent number of people have heard the name, "bitcoin", but merely because they heard the name does not mean that they know shit about what it actually is... even if they might even have some talking points about it.. that are at least 90% likely to be inaccurate. Even a decently large percentage of people who I know who have actually bought bitcoin frequently get mislead in their understanding of what bitcoin is... probably the most informed people are proportionately in this thread and some threads like this one that may exist in some other areas of the interwebs to the extent that they are not coopted by misinformation shills/trolls that can easily begin to dominate and distract the thread contents if you do not have at least a few relatively strong voices calling bullshit on them from time to time. We have quite a few peeps in this thread willing to call bullshit on the troll/shills on a regular basis - so we are good in that respect.
This is BS! This happened in late November and early December when we were already around 10K. Do you think that many peeps that heard about Bitcoin, say in 1. Dec 2107 registered in some exchange and bought by 15Dec? No! I know thousands of people because of my occupation and I must tell that not even 0.1% of them bought bitcoins. On the contrary, because of their ignorance some of them bought the leading 3 shitcoins which names I don't want to write. Why - because they looked cheaper from a few dollars to several thousands (never heard of a market cap, n00bs). Now each of them changed their mind and regrets for not buying at 3K. I encourage them not to wait anymore but to act decisevly and invest now.
Yeah.. gosh.. I don't really know how to get people out of their inclinations towards both unit bias, which seems to be part of the informational arena that contributes to their either not getting into any investment of bitcoin or getting distracted into shitcoins. Some of the movements towards sats can maybe help in this regards, but lots of people seem to need to learn through their own explorations of their own stupid... and none of us are really immune from such, even if we have kind of grown enough into realizing the repetitive claims of the various shitcoin camps are not likely to be true, even while they seem to continue to figure out some decent new ways to be creative in their attempts to mislead people into valuing their shit projects.
TD;LR What happens now is a natural growth because of the lack of supply. The average Joe is much more informed now and prefers to buy and hodl and not to gamble on exchanges.
I am not trying to denigrate average Joes, but there are tendencies that average Joes have to attempt to short-cut matters and to take their own path, etc. etc. etc...
I just don't conclude that they learn that easily... and for that reason I still am inclined to believe that we are going to have at least one more pump of shitcoins, scams, ICOs etc etc.. Sure, I would prefer for it NOT to happen, but I just don't know how people all of a sudden become smarter and start to do the right thing rather than gambling on crap.
There are some psycological barriers like 20K, 50K, etc. but with time each of them will fall. 286 days before the halving and nothing to be afraid of. Buy and hodl!
$20k is not really a barrier... but there should be some resistance between here and sub-$20k-ish.. Maybe in the $17.5 arena..? Perhaps also the next area of resistance that might be a psychological barrier might be $50k to $70k arena... then of course, after that will be $100k... and surely I am hard-pressed to even attempt to get into specifics about what could happen because we have to see how slow or fast the price gets there and also how many corrections there are along the way.. including how much time those corrections play out... Surely fractal patterns can be decent guidelines in terms of levels of reasonableness and even measures like the Mayer multiple can give some decent indications about whether the current BTC market is in an overbought or oversold territory and provide some ideas about the sustainability of such price levels (even though that is not a given either, just a kind of reference guide).
