Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9660. (Read 26608384 times)

Trading options on stocks/indices is a 90% sure fire loser over the long term. It was similar even 30 years ago when the market was human traded (mostly), but it is far more so now.

The reason is that options have an expiry date. The 'market' will always conspire to extract the greatest amount from holders of options at expiry. The vast majority of traders still hold to expiry, and always will. For instruments with no expiry date, the market imposes a time holding cost (above and beyond the price of initial purchase).

There would be no market at all if this were not the case, because the expiries and holding costs are what fund the costs and profits of the market makers/whole financial machine/industry.


BTC (like gold ) could be called an option , but it is without expiry date and holding cost.

That's not really how it works.  A lot of people just mined only the high grade areas they control when price dropped, essentially cannibalizing their business.  That means the price has to rise even higher to make it worthwhile reopening an entirely low grade site.  Or maybe it's not worthwhile reopening at all unless the price went completely astronomical.  The oil industry probably has the same problems.


What planet do you live on?  Looking at charts of outflows over time, I estimate the amount of gold America holds is between 0 to 2000 tons max.  There is no giant horde of US gold unless they've managed to repo it back from whatever Jews stole it, or unless they stole some large amounts from countries like Libya and others.

Good morning WO!
Five figures continued...
Observing @ $10,520

I could only say this is reality and that thing have changes a lot.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-01/berkeley-couple-support-their-children-aged-4-8-transition

Clown world.  Some horrifically obese woman has a fat 8 year old daughter and the daughter decides that because it's not an attractive girl, it wants to be a 'transgender boy' instead.  This reminds me of the fish world where in some species of fish, if the females reach a certain size they literally change sex into a male and then start attacking other males and trying to claim the females as their territory.  

In other words, tolerating fat women at all is nothing but trouble.  Just don't marry or reproduce with giant, hog looking women and we won't have these problems.  They will fail to spread their fat genes and no longer exist to drag down the species.  No hog women like this exist in places like Japan or China because they refused to marry them.

Puppies are quite cute roach, I definitely agree with you there. Also, you are right in that there is nothing as stunning as a beautiful, fully-formed rainbow, the kind that looks like it illuminates half the sky, and if one were to stare intently at it, they could almost see the pot of gold where the rainbow appears to touch down. Rainbows in a way are metaphorical of life itself, as they magically come into existence under the right circumstances, create wonderment for all to see, and are ultimately only temporary.

Unexpected things happens at unexpected time.

But now expecting it.

JayJuanGee has been identified as the #1 terror threat facing America for believing the conspiracy theory that the government, media, and banks are not controlled by the evil cult of Judaism:

https://nypost.com/2019/08/01/fbi-conspiracy-theory-extremists-are-a-terror-threat/

decentralization does not exist, bitcoin manages by Bitmain, and all three types

https://twitter.com/Aleksan00743929/status/1157182235667292160

Just gonna leave this here

I dont agree we are 2017, I dont see why that should be.   Halvening is next year, I'd rather place it next to a dollar index chart but I know 2017 had a very steady decline in DXY and not so much this year though I'am bearish on it, nothing big to move this year.   Theres other reasons for BTC maybe its tariffs and sanctions.
The rises in price can only really be built after consolidation and the sponge wringing of loose hands that each sell causes.   Consolidation is bullish really, just going sideways in the thousands whichever thousand that might be this month I find quite bullish.   Not that the price has to go up but all these prices are high to me so staying in this area is not believable to many who doubted or wrote off Bitcoin many years ago.



Yep of course, every commodity will open up new supply when its price rises.  I saw the failed gold trend in 2011 and then failed to act or retract investment enough, an expensive lesson for me.   A mine I know of with costs over $1,500 did not evaporate but fell into Chinese hands and I have no doubts they will reopen that mine and may even be producing at a loss to sell to the state reserves in the command economy as only China can.    I still have shares in the failed enterprise, I really doubt they ever pay me a penny but they are obligated to send me accounts every two years so I got that for my money I guess :p I'll know when China goes nuclear on gold production at these high costs.

   A properly adjusted market will bring on more supply always, oil has the Canada oil sands just waiting and so much available at higher costs.   Bitcoin dynamic is really not the same with its fixed supply.   Its far more prone to these accelerated rises that will not back off, its made worse by shorts trying to guess future pricing.   BTC can also fall alot as its subject to so much speculation but an expansion in its base supply is not one of its problems.

Gold especially is prone to efficiency concerns.   Theres a big link to oil prices in Gold production also as alot of gold fields are available (especially as permafrost retreats in higher global temperate shifts) if enough dirt can be moved and sifted through water sluicing and various means to retrieve and refine raw dirt.     Theres good reasons for gold to have links to the economy long term it seems, loose money produces an incentive to invest in many things but gold would be one of them.  
Giganatic reserves of gold suddenly becoming available isnt a giant concern except where central banks flush their reserves into the main market, but this is like trying to turn the tide; even with a bulldozer you cannot change fundamentals.   Bank of England flushed their reserves, Italy might do it in future and far future I've always expected the Fort knox gold to be released at some pressure point though its hard to estimate.
France has too much respect for de Gaulle's leadership and rhetoric involving gold post war, its likely kept as security afaik.   China and Russia are the worlds largest buyers of gold for ten years now, China also now the worlds largest producer.
   Germany still bares the scars of loose money from the 1920's and even at the centre of the EURO I doubt they sell or their nations population allows politics to do so plus being one of the worlds largest exporters makes it an unlikely requirement.   The Swiss dont need to sell gold for similar reasons and again their population is quite close to wanting gold backing to currency last I read.
  Asia is positive on gold on average afaik, cant think of many other big holders who would or could sell to alter or drop prices but gold is bullish for decades forward afaik.  
 Gold imo is inverse to Bond expansion over 30 years

  BTC price is at the 50 day MA

Hmm...

I wonder what will happen in August?! 

We can't satisfy ourself,we look for more and more even if we already doing better than before.

I guess we need to start practicing yoga in WO itself.

And back from my beach holiday   It is so refreshing to see that we are well above 10K again! During the holiday I tried to look at the price as little as possible, but I couldn't resist. Yeah, I saw that dumbass whale dumping from 10200 to 9500. Another super duper clever shorter on Bitmex, I guess. Anyway,  July is traditionally a weak month for the price. So, staying above 9K and even better above 10K is a strong bull sing for the coming months. With the support slowly but steadily building up, the chances for a plunge below 9K are getting slimmer with each day. Recalling that earlier this year we were hovering on the rim of 3100, this price development is simply amazing. To be honest, I was thinking that reaching and staying above 10K would be possible sometime around the halving or even later. Now I am thinking that breaking the ATH in the worst case scenario is due to arrive around the halving. But most probably, Bitcoin will surprise me again with an earlier ATH (may be this is the beginning of the bull run for it).  

Wonder what the halving will do to this next year.

It will just increase the price of course.

whoa

I guess that I am just adverse (and maybe even a bit hostile) to the contemplation of complicated instruments in order to play around with the market, especially if it might not be necessary to use complicated instruments.

Maybe bitcoin has spoiled me?  We can get fucking BIG ASS returns in bitcoin without any leverage and without any special trading instruments, so that is part of the reason that bitcoin remains so god damned exciting as an asset class that is available to normal people.  The asymmetric bet is there and the asymmetric bet is continuing to pay off on a regular basis.  We are in the midst of it, and I have some difficulties appreciating how that could be boring.

I mean.. I kind of downplay the time before I got in (which would have been before 2013), so yeah in 2014 I was largely establishing my BTC position and in 2015, the BTC price was relatively stagnant during that time, but fuck, we got ourselves a 78x price increase from that floating 2015 base price of $250-ish, and yeah we had an 85% correction in 2018 down to $3,122, but still we would have still been at least 12x up from our $250 starting price in 2015.... jesus.. what is not exciting about those kinds of returns, and even that the exponential grown price cycle seems to be repeating, and sometime after breaking above $4,200 on April 1, 2019 it was confirmed that we had returned to this particular bull market that we are now in.

So fucking what that we had around a 33% price correction from the $13,880 top to $9k, we still remain in god dammed good BTC prices and there seems to be a continued amount of upwards BTC price pressures surrounding $10k.. and even decently above $10k as I type....

Gotta be excited.. whether we go down or up from here, there continues to be great upwards BTC prices..

fuck the stock market and the other boring price performers.  If you want to talk about boring, refer yourself to traditional markets including fiat and the stock market.  That is boring.. especially compared with BTC.

We have action right where we are at with bitcoin, and almost no leverage is needed in order to make a killing in BTC (compared with traditional markets).  We have people, including amateurs (not that troll named amateur) like my mom who makes a killing too based on relatively small investments.. and the BT  price continues to go up for common people to be able to get in and you do NOT need any kind of broker, either.. just buy, HODL accumulate... BTC,  buy on dips... and if your timeline is decently long you are likely going to profit stupendously, and furthermore, sometimes if you get in at the right time, you don't even need much of a very long timeline in order to profit stupendously...

Did I say that no leverage was needed?  

And no special investing strategies or tools are needed beyond buying BTC on dips and dollar cost averaging, hodl and accumulate.  what else is needed in order to be not bored...  

This could not be boring, unless you are waiting for a kind of result that is not happening for you... such as waiting for down, when we are in a bull market..

There continues to be so much bullish news in bitcoin, so I can hardly contain my selfie!!!!!



I   am..................

GETTING.........


Wait.......


Wait.......


Wait.......




CCCITTEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

Wait.......

WWWWWWWWEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



O.k.. now I feel better.

O.k Now I know gembitz's secret.

 

You don't have to play the whole stock market, and to increase leverage, you can use puts/calls.
Bitcoin itself trades more like an option (on a new financial system, I guess).

In btc right now is a bit too many unknown unknowns to simply stack satoshis, IMHO, but if it goes parabolic right here, I would be among those who simply rejoice.

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1156934579040559104

We are always complaining about the price ..., we are like children, there is no reason to complain, we are doing well.

Good morning, WO,s

Haahahahahahaha

"Bored", as in you are still waiting for sub $8,500?  We were really close to $9k on a couple of occasions, but you feel good man in regard to waiting for sub $8,500-ish.

Yeah, I don't know, whether the price is going below $9k or not.  Surely, I would not want to be waiting...for that, and we already know that BTC sometimes has a tendency to do what we don't necessarily expect but then also we could be kind of caught in a consolidation that maybe does not satisfy many people.. and just bring boredom from some.

Part of the reason that I am not bored is because I recall just a few short months ago, we had a price that was largely staying below $4k for several months, and it seems almost equally plausible to me that we could have gotten stuck in that price area for another 6 months or so, and that surely would have been frustrating (if not boring).  Being in a BTC price range that is largely bouncing between $9k and $11k remains very interesting to me, in part because I had thought that a sub $4k BTC price was going to be an additional means to continue to purge shit coins, but it seems that some of the purging could still be taking place, but in a bit of a different manner than had been expected... so is this current price action a kind of way to continue to purge shitcoins?  Could be?  could be?  Boring?  

I'm not quite feeling it, even if you, Biodom, have some WO company, in your asserted boredom, and maybe for different reason than you, but I remain not part of that boredom crowd.

Regarding your stock market comment, you seem distracted.  Stock markets should not be anywhere near to as exciting as bitcoin.  Who gives any shits about 10% moves in the stock market when we may be getting 40% on the downside in bitcoin and also 5x or more (even though we have only had 3.5x so far in recent times)... anyhow, 3.5x moves in bitcoin should be way the fuck more exciting than 10% stock market moves.... AmiNOTrite?

Furthermore, I used to have a real decent portion of my investments in various stock market index funds, etc etc.. but now those funds are a fraction of my bitcoin funds  They do not perform even close to as dramatically as my bitcoin funds... Maybe the get 30% from time to time, but fuck 30% is almost nothing in bitcoin, even though 30% really excites me, but jesus fucking christ, you must have been excited in the end of June when we were approaching the top of more than 3.5x in less than 3 months.. that is something to be WOWed about, no?