Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9662. (Read 26608487 times)

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

Fuck, we are due for another halvening already? It feels like the last one wasn't too long ago. These things are always such events but I have learned from the previous ones, they price in a few months before. That means Jan/Feb expect the boom, not May.

Jonoiv was a sad one to see, he so quickly turned the corner from this is a fun thing to being R0aches partner in crime and this is all a big ole scam and the boogie men are out to get our moniez.

This is impressive.
I mean: what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?

Hash rate follows price.  

It's almost as if you're describing a Ponzi scheme.

This is a cheap objection and you are too smart not to understand why.
I won't indulge in this anymore.

Thank you.

This is how I discovered this website.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1122850107685310464


I don't want to fall into the "appeal to authority" (one of the most common logical fallacy), but I think Jameson Lopp knows how these things work.

A little development on the LedgerX saga:



Time to call it a day folks.

Now Alita the Battle Angel.

I wonder if difficulty will ever start to just somewhat settle especially with node size getting harder and harder to shrink.

Peter Ker
From Orange in New South Wales to Bendigo in Victoria and Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, the gold sector is forecast to pull a record $22 billion worth of yellow metal out of the ground in fiscal 2020.

''These old mines may have shut down when the gold price was $300 for example, it is now above $2000, they would have bypassed a lot of gold in those underground mines because it would have been uneconomic at the time,'' Olsen says.

As a store of value and subject of speculation, the forces driving gold prices are opaque, but it is safe to say the recent rally has been sparked by a deteriorating US economy and geopolitical concerns about the US relationship with Iran, North Korea and China.

Rising gold prices have buoyed miners in all nations, but Australian miners have received an extra boost in the form of a weaker local currency, which has ensured their Australian-denominated costs have become a smaller proportion of the US dollars they receive for their gold.

Monetary easing from central banks has seen investors turn to gold.
The US dollar's role in setting global gold prices means Australian-denominated gold prices are strong when the greenback is strong against the Australian dollar.

New York based VanEck Securities is the world's largest gold equity manager, and the firm's portfolio manager Joe Foster said an interest rate cut in the US this week could be followed by a recession if history is any guide.

He says that would be a recipe for even higher gold prices.

''If you look historically, after the first rate cut in 2008 we went into a recession three months later. When they cut rates in 2000 we went into a recession two months later, so we could very well see economic weakness over the next six to 12 months, maybe even a recession,'' he tells The Australian Financial Review.

''If we go into a downturn, that increases the risk to the financial system that would probably drive gold much higher.

''We are near the end of a cycle, this is the longest expansion on record, it is the longest stock bull market on record and these things don't last forever.''

While most pundits expect a US rate cut will be good for US-denominated gold prices, Shaw and Partners analyst Peter O'Connor notes that the impact on Australian-denominated gold prices is less clear.

The Australian dollar has dropped in recent days below the 70c threshold.
He points out that gold prices may rise in US dollar terms in response to a rate cut, but may fall in Australian dollar terms if the US currency weakens significantly.

''The outlook depends not just on the fed cut but on the commentary, and probably the minutes released next month,'' he said.

''The short answer is we are getting closer to an Australian-denominated gold price peak, but not a US-denominated gold price peak.''

The situation could change again if, as expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia makes further interest rate cuts later this year, with further cuts likely to support Australian-denominated gold prices.

Gold-rush towns always get a boost when the local mine resumes production, but in Stawell's case the impact on the local economy will be unusually strong and refreshingly traceable, with the mine set to host a multimillion dollar particle physics laboratory.

Scientists studying ''dark matter'' require a laboratory free of background radiation, and deep underground is one of the few suitable places for such research.

Plans to build such a laboratory in a chamber of the Stawell mine were dashed when the mine closed in 2016, denying the laboratory of the ventilation and other support systems required to safely work underground.

But the revival of the mine has enabled a revival of the laboratory project, with state and federal governments contributing $10 million to build the scientists a chamber about 1000 metres down the mine.

''That is an unusual spin-off from an old gold mine opening up again,'' said local mayor Kevin Erwin.

''That side of it will be a real game changer for Stawell. We will have international professors in town and it will raise the bar for local kids in terms of aspirations for what their future careers can be.

"We are on the cusp of a wave and it is just starting to roll.

''We have got a bit of a shortage in housing at the moment so we are just trying to address that very quickly, bucking the trend of a lot of rural communities.

''We have quite a few hundred jobs coming online in the next few years and we need families and we need housing."

Olsen says Arete is looking for other opportunities to invest in old mines that might have been unloved by their former owners.

Hugh Morgan's private equity fund has made its first acquisition in Victorian gold.
Some of those opportunities are in Victoria, where interest in gold mining has rebounded since bonanza gold grades were found in the "Swan Zone" beneath the then marginal Fosterville mine near Bendigo in 2015.

Foster travelled from New York to see Fosterville with his own eyes in 2015, and says the Swan Zone is the best gold discovery he has seen anywhere in the world in the past two decades.

Fosterville, which is owned by Kirkland Lake Gold, has since become one of Australia's most lucrative gold mines, and its success has spawned bullish talk of a broader ''renaissance'' of the Victorian gold sector.

''There is certainly a lot more interest since Fosterville went down below 600 metres and basically broke into Aladdin's Cave,'' said Olsen.

Statistics suggest interest in Victorian gold has improved, but the state remains a very small player in the Australian gold industry.

Spending on exploration in Victoria has quadrupled over the past four years, but at $24.5 million in the March quarter, the state had less than 5 per cent of the national exploration spend for the quarter, according to figures published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Kirkland Lake has listed on the ASX.
For comparison, $353 million was spent on exploration in WA in the March quarter, while NSW ($61.3 million) and Queensland ($75.2 million) also attracted much higher rates of spending.

The Victorian government this year announced it would charge a royalty on gold production for the first time, but the government expects the royalty will generate just $56 million over a four year period.

Victoria's gold sector has boomed in the past four years.
That pales in comparison to the $1.16 billion the WA government expects to raise from gold royalties over the same period.

Compared to the gold rushes of the 1850s, which made Melbourne one of the world's wealthiest cities, Ballarat gold mine general manager Stephen Jeffers says it's a stretch to call the past few years a genuine renaissance.

"It is a long bow,'' he said.

''We have noticed that since Fosterville really hit their straps, explorers are coming around and having a good sniff, for sure, but unless something comes up, they will get bored real quick."

Fosterville's success has triggered a 70 per cent increase in the number of exploration licences granted in the state between fiscal 2015 and fiscal 2018, but the "renaissance" has to date delivered no new "greenfield" mines in Victoria.

''The low hanging fruit in the 'renaissance' will be the reopening of old mines that have existing infrastructure and have a fairly low social impact, if you like, and there are a number of those,'' said Olsen.

''We are looking at those, we are active and keen to invest if the environment allows it.

"But having said that, those mines that are closed down require a huge investment with dewatering and refurbishing, getting all the access and all the power re-established, it can take years and you still need permission to do it.

''There is nothing free about gold mining I can tell you, it has got to be one of the most capital intensive, high-risk industries there is.''

Foster bets on gold discoveries for a living, and he was not exactly optimistic that Fosterville's success will be repeated elsewhere in Victoria.

"It is always possible, but those mines in that area have been around a long time, they have had a lot of work and a lot of drilling, so I would not bet on others discovering another Swan Zone,'' he said.

''They are so few and far between, the probability of discovering another one is low at Fosterville, and it is even lower on other properties where the geology is not quite as well known."

This is a cheap objection and you are too smart not to understand why.
I won't indulge in this anymore.

It's almost as if you're describing a Ponzi scheme.

Thank you.

This is how I discovered this website.

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1122850107685310464


I don't want to fall into the "appeal to authority" (one of the most common logical fallacy), but I think Jameson Lopp knows how these things work.

the next 30 days direction probability of btc price action, I think is split 50-50 between going up around 11,000 or down to the 9000 area.  

I just put a chunk of my btc holdings into celsius.network to earn interest, so I want it to go up to get better interest.
The interest is paid in btc, but I'm gonna sell for fiat the interest payments as I receive them.
The suspense is building.

what will happen after May 2020 when the supply of Bitcoin will be halved overnight?