Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9744. (Read 26652384 times)
July 24, 2019, 09:19:05 PM
One ... may ask more questions than seven wise men can answer.
July 24, 2019, 08:58:24 PM
No...incredibly improbable...no longer be bitcoin.
I would dump the holy living fuck out of that shitfork.
You, me, and everyone else in the world most likely.
Yup. Market sell in a single order. Hopefully do some damage in the process.
July 24, 2019, 08:57:33 PM
No...incredibly improbable...no longer be bitcoin.
I would dump the holy living fuck out of that shitfork.
You, me, and everyone else in the world most likely.
July 24, 2019, 08:55:30 PM
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
No. It would require a consensus among 51% of the miners to change the protocol or a successful 51% attack, neither of which is likely to happen.Isn't "consensus among the majority of miners" effectively identical to "the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors"?
They would have to work in cooperation which is not what I assumed you meant from your statement. And then they'd have to convince everyone else to use it, otherwise they'd just be mining their own fork to the sound of tumbleweeds from the rest of the world.
https://www.blockchain.com/en/pools
It is hard to overstate just how incredibly improbable that would be.
Why would it be "incredibly improbable"?
Bitcoin Cash exists, doesn't it? Bitcoin Satoshi's Vision exists, doesn't it? Although these projects have not yet changed the total supply or distribution, they have changed other variables in the protocol.
What about litecoin? The Scrypt mining algorithm utilised in litecoin is as secure as the SHA256 mining algorithm utilised buy bitcoin, albeit slightly different in design. Confirmation times are faster with litecoin, and there is a higher total supply.
What makes bitcoin better than litecoin?
Is vanilla objectively better than chocolate?
Chocolate is ALWAYS better. Those coins you mention are not bitcoin. That's the point. They are something else. None of them can change the total supply of bitcoin. Maybe one of them eventually beats bitcoin in adoption but so far that looks very unlikely, I wouldn't hold my breath for that. To survive, all those coins listed will have to overcome the first mover advantage of bitcoin and/or carve out their own niche. Those are tall orders. And that is still magnitudes more probable than bitcoin changing its supply limit. For that to happen, it's not just a consensus to change the code, it's also convincing all the people that are using bitcoin now to adopt it to the point it kills off 'old' bitcoin.
July 24, 2019, 08:54:33 PM
No...incredibly improbable...no longer be bitcoin.
I would dump the holy living fuck out of that shitfork.
July 24, 2019, 08:41:51 PM
It doesn’t matter what miners think or choose. They can always fork away and good luck to them.
Economic holders have enormous financial incentives to keep the 21 million cap. They will reject any hard fork by miners to lift the cap. That miner will just be making a shit coin like Bcash, but worse because the cap is broken
Economic holders have enormous financial incentives to keep the 21 million cap. They will reject any hard fork by miners to lift the cap. That miner will just be making a shit coin like Bcash, but worse because the cap is broken
July 24, 2019, 08:27:59 PM
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
No. It would require a consensus among 51% of the miners to change the protocol or a successful 51% attack, neither of which is likely to happen.Isn't "consensus among the majority of miners" effectively identical to "the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors"?
It is hard to overstate just how incredibly improbable that would be.
Why would it be "incredibly improbable"?
Bitcoin Cash exists, doesn't it? Bitcoin Satoshi's Vision exists, doesn't it? Although these projects have not yet changed the total supply or distribution, they have changed other variables in the protocol.
What about litecoin? The Scrypt mining algorithm utilised in litecoin is as secure as the SHA256 mining algorithm utilised buy bitcoin, albeit slightly different in design. Confirmation times are faster with litecoin, and there is a higher total supply.
What makes bitcoin better than litecoin?
Is vanilla objectively better than chocolate?
July 24, 2019, 08:22:51 PM
This was not discussed here, but yesterday btc miners (new gen, another batch) went on sale for ridiculously high prices.
Sold out very quickly, regardless.
The only way these purchases make any sense is the expectation of price doubling to quadrupling within 12 mo when taking into account both the difficulty and the price rise.
Sold out very quickly, regardless.
The only way these purchases make any sense is the expectation of price doubling to quadrupling within 12 mo when taking into account both the difficulty and the price rise.
July 24, 2019, 08:21:58 PM
Those are the candles that change my mood. 
go BTC gooo!!
go BTC gooo!!
July 24, 2019, 08:05:47 PM
Well back to normal.
July 24, 2019, 07:56:33 PM
July 24, 2019, 07:54:48 PM
Who said higher low?
July 24, 2019, 07:46:11 PM
Oh hi there
July 24, 2019, 07:45:25 PM
woah
July 24, 2019, 07:41:59 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Then you should address your question to the person who put this model together:
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/86/
Go to minute 29:00 onward, PlanB is going to answer to your question.
jbreher is right: People is simply not aware of the model and the halving effect on the stock to flow.
To be clear, I am not saying that the stock:flow model is definitive. I am saying that the eventual price is very high, due to the endemic properties of crypto as money. And that getting from a price of Zero to a price of FuckYou is bound to take significant time, and be very chaotic along the way.
The stock:flow model is simply an empirical model that seems to roughly explain the observed underlying reality. IMNSHO.
I expect anyone that trades with any expectation of fidelity to the S:F model will likely do well on average, but likely be wiped out at some point along the way where that fidelity breaks down completely.
We humans like things in neat little predictable buckets. But while markets are derived from human behavior, price predictions are not amenable to mere mathematical analysis.
This is fair. Except fidelity does hold, albeit on an extremely macro level.
Year on year we have only once made a lower low in a following year, and then only by a whisker in the depths of cryptowinter.
July 24, 2019, 07:31:08 PM
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
"Changing" it would result in an immediate hard fork and considering the economic majority would not support it it would probably be rendered worthless (the hardforked chain I mean). It would be a chaotic event that would have some significant impact on price overall though. The one entity losing the most would be the one causing the hard fork and drop in price.
It is basically the same as if the richest people in the world decided to airdrop all their billions to the rest of the population. FIAT value would drop relative to other assets, but they would be the more directly impacted.
In other words, the most powerful network contributors have a very high economic incentive to just play by the consensus rules.
July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
No. It would require a consensus among 51% of the miners to change the protocol or a successful 51% attack, neither of which is likely to happen. It is hard to overstate just how incredibly improbable that would be. And should it happen then it would no longer be bitcoin.
Back to the primary motivation of fiat return (and potential loss), I see - is this how most people see bitcoin? A purely speculative asset and/or tool for gambling?
Sure a lot of them do. A lot of others see different/more reasons. I consider it a store of value not related to fiat return. That's an admittedly long (very) view. It's also a world computer. And a way to take control of your own financial power without middle men, with the concurrent responsibility of being very up to date on security.
July 24, 2019, 06:51:37 PM
In seriousness I'll try and answer you a bit here:
I am compelled to follow up - why should anyone invest in bitcoin? Fiat return? Future potential for fiat return? Value retention? Acquisition of secure digital assets/property?
Why? Fiat Return, definitely the trend over the last five years has been a resounding yes, future potential is of course there, value retention definitely, and of course if you have the coins in a wallet that is yours (not an exchanges) your keys means your coins.
I am compelled to follow up - why should anyone invest in bitcoin? Fiat return? Future potential for fiat return? Value retention? Acquisition of secure digital assets/property?
Why? Fiat Return, definitely the trend over the last five years has been a resounding yes, future potential is of course there, value retention definitely, and of course if you have the coins in a wallet that is yours (not an exchanges) your keys means your coins.
Thank you, kingcolex, for the clear response.
Although I'm not totally unfamiliar with SHA256 and the concept of sovereign ownership (I find these things quite interesting), I see that you've highlighted fiat return as a primary reason for financial investment into the bitcoin project.
I invest in Bitcoin due a to a few things, what I learned from dealing with Foreign investors who had strict government restrictions (China) on how much money they were allowed to bring out of the nation, wiring delay times, proof of funds, proof of ownership of funds and sourcing of funds. Bitcoin solves all of this without a company at the center that can freeze or control user funds, it can't go bankrupt and there is a limited number of coins that will never change.
Although I've heard these points made previously, I appreciate your restating of them, as I believe some of these innovations will have massive implications with regards to the way the global economy evolves.
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
I believe JJG was trying to get at that when you own some (even a small bit) you could experience these things all for yourself, you can also sign messages with your wallet that proves that you are the one in control of the funds which is a neat way to prove who is who and who owns what and I definitely think it does help one understand the technology.
This is very intriguing - are there any guides or tutorials that explain exactly how to do this?
You can read all about stocks, but nothing helps you understand a market like owning a couple of shares yourself. That is all the same with Crypto and Bitcoin.
I'm still not sure that this is necessarily true.
I'm not even sure it's worth continuing to suggest investing, to be honest. Does it further the discussion regarding technical understanding? Does it do anything other than simply pressure others to join "your side"?
If you have an amount you can immediately peg it to a fiat amount you paid and in 1 month, 6 months, 1 year see how this crypto market really works and how it moves. No skin in the game leads to loss of focus and paying attention, I know I pay a lot more attention to markets where I am fiscally vulnerable.
Back to the primary motivation of fiat return (and potential loss), I see - is this how most people see bitcoin? A purely speculative asset and/or tool for gambling?
July 24, 2019, 06:26:36 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
The latter.
We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.
You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.
I don't see what your observation about so-called 'leaders' has to do with the price of tea in China. Want to explain yourself?
July 24, 2019, 06:19:35 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Then you should address your question to the person who put this model together:
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/86/
Go to minute 29:00 onward, PlanB is going to answer to your question.
jbreher is right: People is simply not aware of the model and the halving effect on the stock to flow.
To be clear, I am not saying that the stock:flow model is definitive. I am saying that the eventual price is very high, due to the endemic properties of crypto as money. And that getting from a price of Zero to a price of FuckYou is bound to take significant time, and be very chaotic along the way.
The stock:flow model is simply an empirical model that seems to roughly explain the observed underlying reality. IMNSHO.
I expect anyone that trades with any expectation of fidelity to the S:F model will likely do well on average, but likely be wiped out at some point along the way where that fidelity breaks down completely.
We humans like things in neat little predictable buckets. But while markets are derived from human behavior, price predictions are not amenable to mere mathematical analysis.
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