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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9739. (Read 26634039 times)

legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1530
Self made HODLER ✓
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

I don't think it is HIGHLY likely... just somewhat likely. But you must take into account that:

1) This is an extremely risky investment which could perfectly go to zero in a snap (even if that risk gets smaller over time).

2) This is also an extremely volatile asset. It could perfectly reach $100K in a few years AND go to $1K some time along the road (not comparing the likelihood of the two events just saying both are possible).... so that means some people could be waiting for a lower price and/or a moment in which the prospect is better).

If $100K were a SURE (or almost sure) thing in less than 10 years I would be selling ALL I have and going full retard into BTC. It isn't. It is just somewhat likely... IMHO.
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.

The latter.

We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?

If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
hero member
Activity: 968
Merit: 624
Still a manic miner
Newegg Extends Bitcoin Payment Option to 73 New Countries

Quote
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Newegg, the leading tech-focused e-retailer in North America with a global reach into more than 80 countries, today announced it will begin accepting Bitcoin in 73 additional Newegg country-specific stores. With these recent additions, Newegg customers can now pay with Bitcoin in nearly all of the countries the company serves worldwide.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190724005272/en/Newegg-Extends-Bitcoin-Payment-Option-73-New





those are the news i like!

One of the best use cases for BTC: cross border paying.

go BTC go!
legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
No problem.

Pantera Capital CEO Expects Bitcoin Price to Reach $356,000 by 2022

Quote
Morehead's comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.

Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a "proxy" for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up. AT his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/pantera-capital-ceo-expects-bitcoin-price-to-reach-356000-by-2022/

You don’t need to be an head of a multi billion hedge fund to understand that.

I start anyway to believe that next halving is crucial.
I don’t know if it’s priced in or not (my gut feeling tells me it’s not), but if price don’t move seriously upward as PlanB suggests, maybe even lagging SF model for up to one year after May 2020, then we could have a proper test of bitcoin value proposition as an experiment of Store of Value/digital gold.
All the institutional money that is supposedly flowing into Bitcoin is surely looking into that.

I believe in bitcoin, but it's not a religious approach, it's not faith based on dogmas.It's a rational expectation of the market pricing correctly all the feature of the protocol.


I mean, that Bitcoin will take the path that it pleases, as always, in 2017, at the end of November, the BTC price was +/- 10,000 in mid-December was ATH in just 15 days.

The articles are interesting to take the pulse of the market from different angles.

This does not mean that I agree with them.

But, yes, I recognize that I am more BTCull than bear. Wink

VB1001, I am number one fan of PlanB.
When I am down I listen to his podcast at Stephen Livera and I immediately forget my worrings and RL problems.
I do believe in his models and I find those very innovative and hard to dismiss, given the test he made to prevent spurious correlations.

I am only pointing out that this if the first halving event put into test by "general public" and "institutional money", and if the effect on the price that we all here hope to see.. well then we could even fall back into a perma-cryptowinter.
Hopefully I am wrong, but all the bullishness we have seen around this event must be tested, in the end.

I cannot fault you, fillippone, for attempting to figure out whether our upcoming halvening is "priced in" or not, because if that were to be answered in the affirmative, then you are correct, we might be in for another potentially drawn out cryptowinter, and even perhaps prematurely, too.  I do believe that there are pretty low odds, however, for the halvening being "priced in", because there are way too many newbies coming into the space on an ongoing basis, whether we are talking about institutions or retail or even existing HODLers increasing their stakes, and even when there are all these fucktwats suggesting that bitcoin's market is maturing because so many institutional investors are getting in and blah blah blah....

The truth of the matter would be way higher bitcoin prices NOW if there was much if any real or meaningful adoption/investment from institutional investors, like that seeming to be asserted on a regular basis.

I will give it to you (or anyone else) that it seems fairly likely that a decent number of institutional investors (perhaps along with already existing bitcoin users) had contributed to our latest BTC pump from $4,200 to $13,880 - but we also should recognize a kind of reality that it does not take a whole hell of a lot of money to actually pump BTC's price by 3x - especially when we are referencing the kind of value that any of the decently large institutional investors would be able to put in, if they were to want to, and even conglomerating some of the smaller institutional investors, and the pure quantity of our most recent pump likely shows that NOT a whole hell of a lot of institutional investors (whether small or large) are yet into bitcoin and making the down-low investments that we have been told that they have been making that supposedly had contributed to the most recent pump.

So, yeah, certainly prepare for BTC  price movements in either direction, and yeah, don't be taking out a large mortgage (or loan) on a $5 million mini-yacht that might require your 166 BTC stash to be approaching somewhere in the value of $100k plus territory in order to be able to meet the terms of your mortgage, when we still have not even gotten close to those kinds of numbers, yet,... it's far from any kind of reliance, including that we will ever reach supra $20k prices within the next 5-10 years.  

Nonetheless, even though I feel that I am going to be personally better off if the BTC prices are higher than they are today in the next 5-10 years, I also think that there remains decently high odds, that a new ATH is going to be reached in the coming year or two (or possibly less) with snowballing values that likely bring us to really high numbers that are likely to exceed 10 x from today's price in that time-frame and reasonably could go beyond 100x.... simultaneously, don't be counting your eggs before they have hatched.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
Hello Lady and Gents
 I havent posted on here since 2015 when my account The Doxing, was banned from posting. Some may remember when I revealed the identity of Lambie, our friendly FT journalist, who was a plague on this thread for too long. She fought it at first but once I started subtly dripping her personal info she realized I was for real and left never too return. I never released any of her personal emails. She is gone and that is what is important. I have been reading this thread daily since 2013 and became a long term hodler in 2014. Ive even read most of JJGs posts although some speedreading and skimming is required. Im still hodling strong over half the coins i started with and happy to see Lambie doesnt plague these forums any more. The most recent dumpfest was more ridiculous imo than the Jan 2015 one so it felt like a good time to drop in and say hello after many years. Despite the rivers of blood, the carnage and the despair we have seen lately, at least NLC isnt flooding us with disgusting porn. Oh yeah and since I havent posted in so long, Ill think Ill call bottom while Im here, a little prediction never hurt anyone. I doubt Ill be back to post again for a long time but Ill be reading and enjoying everyones comments, even Roach who I believe is an undercover permabull of Jewish descent Wink

Wow Lambie, this was an excellent first post. Mad respect!

I saw it mentioned here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.51936956

Care to comment?
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>
Newegg Extends Bitcoin Payment Option to 73 New Countries

Quote
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Newegg, the leading tech-focused e-retailer in North America with a global reach into more than 80 countries, today announced it will begin accepting Bitcoin in 73 additional Newegg country-specific stores. With these recent additions, Newegg customers can now pay with Bitcoin in nearly all of the countries the company serves worldwide.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190724005272/en/Newegg-Extends-Bitcoin-Payment-Option-73-New



sr. member
Activity: 854
Merit: 307
Senate Banking Committee to Hold Hearing on Crypto Regulation

Me and Mnuchin are gonna drop the hammer on this bitch.

What the fuck do you, diptwat, have to do with anything beyond spreading FUD and other various nonsense on the interwebs?  

Projecting some kind of status/position/alliance on yourself?

Yeah, right...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Likely you have been reading too many "grandma and me" books, and just substituted "Mnuchin and me."  Good job.



That is a good one JJG!  Cheesy Cheesy I bought that first interactive CD rom (for what it was at that time), to let my daughter become computer litterate when she was 5 years... . Now she is doing her post doctorate in Oslo... .  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
No problem.

Pantera Capital CEO Expects Bitcoin Price to Reach $356,000 by 2022

Quote
Morehead's comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.

Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a "proxy" for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up. AT his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/pantera-capital-ceo-expects-bitcoin-price-to-reach-356000-by-2022/

You don’t need to be an head of a multi billion hedge fund to understand that.

I start anyway to believe that next halving is crucial.
I don’t know if it’s priced in or not (my gut feeling tells me it’s not), but if price don’t move seriously upward as PlanB suggests, maybe even lagging SF model for up to one year after May 2020, then we could have a proper test of bitcoin value proposition as an experiment of Store of Value/digital gold.
All the institutional money that is supposedly flowing into Bitcoin is surely looking into that.

I believe in bitcoin, but it's not a religious approach, it's not faith based on dogmas.It's a rational expectation of the market pricing correctly all the feature of the protocol.


I mean, that Bitcoin will take the path that it pleases, as always, in 2017, at the end of November, the BTC price was +/- 10,000 in mid-December was ATH in just 15 days.

The articles are interesting to take the pulse of the market from different angles.

This does not mean that I agree with them.

But, yes, I recognize that I am more BTCull than bear. Wink

VB1001, I am number one fan of PlanB.
When I am down I listen to his podcast at Stephen Livera and I immediately forget my worrings and RL problems.
I do believe in his models and I find those very innovative and hard to dismiss, given the test he made to prevent spurious correlations.

I am only pointing out that this if the first halving event put into test by "general public" and "institutional money", and if the effect on the price that we all here hope to see.. well then we could even fall back into a perma-cryptowinter.
Hopefully I am wrong, but all the bullishness we have seen around this event must be tested, in the end.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>
No problem.

Pantera Capital CEO Expects Bitcoin Price to Reach $356,000 by 2022

Quote
Morehead's comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.

Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a "proxy" for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up. AT his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/pantera-capital-ceo-expects-bitcoin-price-to-reach-356000-by-2022/

You don’t need to be an head of a multi billion hedge fund to understand that.

I start anyway to believe that next halving is crucial.
I don’t know if it’s priced in or not (my gut feeling tells me it’s not), but if price don’t move seriously upward as PlanB suggests, maybe even lagging SF model for up to one year after May 2020, then we could have a proper test of bitcoin value proposition as an experiment of Store of Value/digital gold.
All the institutional money that is supposedly flowing into Bitcoin is surely looking into that.

I believe in bitcoin, but it's not a religious approach, it's not faith based on dogmas.It's a rational expectation of the market pricing correctly all the feature of the protocol.


I mean, that Bitcoin will take the path that it pleases, as always, in 2017, at the end of November, the BTC price was +/- 10,000 in mid-December was ATH in just 15 days.

The articles are interesting to take the pulse of the market from different angles.

This does not mean that I agree with them.

But, yes, I recognize that I am more BTCull than bear. Wink
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
No problem.

Pantera Capital CEO Expects Bitcoin Price to Reach $356,000 by 2022

Quote
Morehead's comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.

Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a "proxy" for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up. AT his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/pantera-capital-ceo-expects-bitcoin-price-to-reach-356000-by-2022/

You don’t need to be an head of a multi billion hedge fund to understand that.

I start anyway to believe that next halving is crucial.
I don’t know if it’s priced in or not (my gut feeling tells me it’s not), but if price don’t move seriously upward as PlanB suggests, maybe even lagging SF model for up to one year after May 2020, then we could have a proper test of bitcoin value proposition as an experiment of Store of Value/digital gold.
All the institutional money that is supposedly flowing into Bitcoin is surely looking into that.

I believe in bitcoin, but it's not a religious approach, it's not faith based on dogmas.It's a rational expectation of the market pricing correctly all the feature of the protocol.
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>
No problem.

Pantera Capital CEO Expects Bitcoin Price to Reach $356,000 by 2022

Quote
Morehead's comments about the price of Bitcoin were brought on when he was asked by Shin where we currently are in the development of blockchain technology.

Morehead said that people should realize that we are only 10 years into a two-decade long project, and that for the people who use Bitcoin as a "proxy" for the crypto space, they should note that if we zoom out a bit and look at the price chart for Bitcoin over a period that is longer than year, the Bitcoin price is always going up. AT his own firm, Morehead pointed out that they do not worry about short term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and they have more of a 3-5 year timeframe in mind.

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2019/07/pantera-capital-ceo-expects-bitcoin-price-to-reach-356000-by-2022/
sr. member
Activity: 719
Merit: 388
- 400$ in a minute.

Back again to 9.5K  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 3374
Merit: 4738
diamond-handed zealot
legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>
Good news for Bakkt? NYDFS announces crypto licensing division

Quote
The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) yesterday announced the creation of a new division for licensing crypto-businesses.

The ‘Research and Innovation’ Division will supervise and license virtual currencies, address financial inclusion through technology, protect consumer data rights, and encourage innovation in the financial services marketplace.

https://bitcoinist.com/good-news-for-bakkt-nydfs-announces-crypto-licensing-division/

legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
I just put a chunk of my btc holdings into celsius.network to earn interest

A quarter-old entity based in a remote area of the world? What could possibly go wrong?
sr. member
Activity: 1197
Merit: 482


Quote
#bitcoin chart in viridis colour palette.

It is pretty and it is better for color blind people, also the extreme data points stand out more.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1153968302982672385

Apart from the graph, he thinks about all the details, this is fine.

At first glance that looks 2nd order but if you remove the large gap up jump at the front then it looks more linear. If the former then that would predict a 2021 price of around $10k, if the latter a 2021 price of $100k, just by a rough eyeball guesstimate.
sr. member
Activity: 924
Merit: 311
#TheGoyimKnow
It is time to drop the hammer and foreclose on those digital shitcoins:

legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Senate Banking Committee to Hold Hearing on Crypto Regulation

Me and Mnuchin are gonna drop the hammer on this bitch.

What the fuck do you, diptwat, have to do with anything beyond spreading FUD and other various nonsense on the interwebs?  

Projecting some kind of status/position/alliance on yourself?

Yeah, right...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Likely you have been reading too many "grandma and me" books, and just substituted "Mnuchin and me."  Good job.

legendary
Activity: 938
Merit: 2540
<>


Quote
#bitcoin chart in viridis colour palette.

It is pretty and it is better for color blind people, also the extreme data points stand out more.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1153968302982672385

Apart from the graph, he thinks about all the details, this is fine.
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